654
FXUS64 KCRP 010708
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
208 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:


- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday.

- Moderate risk of rip currents today.

With Tropical storm Chris having moved into Mexico overnight, the
next couple of days look to be quiet for the most part. The 500 mb
ridge that has been over the region continues for at least one more
day, before moving a bit to the east. However, while the ridge is
over the Tennessee Valley, it stretches as far west as North Texas,
keeping a bit of a cap over South Texas. Showers and thunderstorms
in Deep South Texas, have been moving west into the Rio Grande
Plains, with a very low (5%) chance that they get into LRD.
Otherwise, As the trough associated with Chris moves west, the sky
should clear out with only Saharan dust making for a hazy afternoon
over the region. Winds continue to be weak to moderate onshore and
with the wave periods beginning to diminish, we will have a moderate
risk of rip currents that will become low by this evening and
continue into Tuesday. Temperatures today will be will a little
warmer than yesterday with an increase in temperatures by about 3
degrees, on average. However, the moisture is decreasing a bit as
drier air (PWAT between 1.5-2.0") moves into the region. So the idea
would be that the we still have a minor to moderate risk of heat
impact today and probably Tuesday with a little more drying, but an
increase temperatures then too. Heat indices just get to 110F in a
few locations each day, but don`t look like they will maintain for
more than a hour or so. Although, in the Brush Country near COT,
There is a better chance for a heat advisory Tuesday. However, it`s
still a bit marginal with the drying going on.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate to major heat related impacts are possible through
Thursday, diminishing through the weekend.

The persistent mid-level ridge will persist through the end of the
week, keeping us mostly dry and temperatures warm. Heat index values
will continue to be 105-110 across South Texas Wednesday. By
Thursday, we can expect heat index values of 110-114 across the
southern inland Coastal Bend and over portions of the Brush Country.
Heat Advisories may be necessary for the Fourth of July, so remember
to be cautious while celebrating.

On Friday, a trough will move across the Plains, shifting the mid-
level ridge to the east. High temperatures will decrease as the
ridge moves east, but this eastward motion will allow an increase in
moisture across South Texas. This will keep our heat index values
nearly steady through the weekend, with values of 105-109 expected.
A few locations may still see values up to 110, but there is a low
chance of Heat Advisory criteria.

While it is way too soon to be overly concerned about the track of
Hurricane Beryl, this eastward shift of the ridge could open the
door for a slightly more northerly track for Hurricane Beryl. The
good news is that model trends are still keeping it just to the
south. For now, models are hinting at an increased chance for
showers and thunderstorms as early as Saturday, mainly over the
coastal counties and across the waters. There could also be a high
rip current risk and the potential for minor coastal flooding as
long period swell reaches the Middle Texas Coast. We will continue
monitoring the situation, but now is an excellent time to prepare
for a potential tropical system: store documents in a waterproof
container, stock up on water and non-perishable food items, and have
a plan, just in case.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR CIGs are expected to prevail through a majority of the TAF
period. Overnight into early Monday morning, brief periods of MVFR
CIGs and/or VSBYs will be possible due to patchy fog. Winds will
remain light and variable most of the night and early tomorrow
morning before transitioning to become more south-southeasterly by
afternoon. Winds will generally be around 10 knots with gusts up to
20 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Weak to moderate flow will continue into Tuesday as high pressure
remains in control over the region, and will persist into the
weekend before becoming more moderate early next week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible as we move into the
weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected by
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  77  95  79 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          97  77  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            99  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             99  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          94  81  94  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  77 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       92  81  92  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...KRS