Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
183 FXUS64 KCRP 280515 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1215 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances Sunday and Monday. - Major risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country today through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Rain chances will remain very limited today and Friday (generally <15%) as subsidence strengthens beneath a mid- to upper-level ridge, restricting convection to only isolated activity along the coast during peak daytime heating. The primary concern through the remainder of the week and into the holiday weekend will be the heat, with the hottest conditions of the period expected. Afternoon highs will rise into the upper 90s to low 100s, while heat indices peak between 100-112 degF across much of the region. The greatest risk for heat related impacts will be across portions of the Brush Country which are progged to be under a Major (level 3 of 4) heat risk, with pockets of Major Risk (level 4 of 4) along US-59. Mainly a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk will be seen across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. With many outdoor activities anticipated over the holiday weekend, it is important to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and limiting time in direct sun. Additional information on heat safety is available at weather.gov/heat . By the middle of the weekend into early next week, the ridge will shift westward, allowing weak mid-level shortwave disturbances to move southward along its eastern periphery. These features, in combination with elevated moisture (PWATS around 2 inches) and a lingering stationary front across the state, will bring the return of low to medium rain chances (20-60%) from Saturday through Monday, the greatest chances of which will be Sunday and Monday. South Texas has been placed under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall beginning 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday, with localized flash flooding possible in low- lying or poor drainage areas. Lower rain chances (15-20%) may persist Tuesday into midweek as the front gradually dissipates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Outside of a brief period of potential vis reduction at ALi and VCT, expect primarily VFR conditions through this period. Drier air moving over the area will limit convection tomorrow and don`t have a mention for any terminal. The sea breeze looks to be a bit stronger tomorrow than it has been so should see a moderate southeast breeze as the sea breeze moves through each terminal in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) is expected to continue through mid-week next week. Low to medium (20-60%) chances for showers and storms return Saturday and persist into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 94 76 / 30 0 10 0 Victoria 93 74 95 75 / 50 10 10 0 Laredo 101 78 103 79 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 97 75 99 75 / 30 0 10 0 Rockport 91 80 92 80 / 50 10 10 0 Cotulla 100 77 102 78 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 76 96 75 / 30 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 83 90 82 / 30 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83