Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
864 FXUS64 KCRP 041825 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Low to medium (20-40%) rain chances this afternoon through Saturday, chances decrease to around 20% early next week. - Low to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. Please continue to take heat safety precautions. Visit weather.gov/heat for more resources && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Attention remains on the progression of the MCC over the Hill Country this afternoon, continuing to produce light to moderate rain with pockets of thunderstorms. This complex is expected to move eastward through this afternoon then shift southward across South Texas tonight, fizzling out as it loses instability/intensity. Due to above normal moisture and mid-level support still in play, kept low 20-30% chances of showers (less for thunderstorms) across the Coastal Plains tonight, increasing chances slightly for Saturday as we get aid from surface heating. Following Saturday, we`ll be under northeasterly flow aloft from the decaying MCC low while another mid-level low from the northeastern Gulf Coast shifts westward across the Gulf early next week. This mid-level low looks to develop more into an inverted trough as it reaches and extends across the Texas Coast Monday through Tuesday, resulting in low (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances diminish heading into the latter part of next week as the trough shifts westward and South Texas falls under the influence of a broad ridge stretching across the Gulf. Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts continue through next week with max heat indices between 100-110, with the hottest occurring during the latter half of next week when there`s absence of rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening across most of South Texas with light rain showers expanding southward tonight from the complex currently over the Hill Country. Could see MVFR ceilings over ALI overnight with occasional appearances over the Brush Country during the morning hours. Confidence is low on the coverage of showers tonight into tomorrow morning as it`ll be dependent on the progression of the current complex. Instability seems limited at this time, especially going into the night hours, so have kept with VCSH mentions. Sustained southeasterly winds 15-20 knots with gusts nearing 30 knots will decrease to around 10 knots tonight, ramping back up near the end of the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A moderate to fresh south to southeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will continue through this afternoon and tonight. A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) will then dominate beginning Saturday, shifting more southerly during the latter half of next week. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 88 77 91 / 30 30 10 10 Victoria 77 88 74 92 / 30 30 10 10 Laredo 78 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 20 Alice 76 90 74 93 / 30 30 0 10 Rockport 80 88 80 90 / 30 30 10 10 Cotulla 78 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 20 Kingsville 77 88 75 91 / 30 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 88 / 30 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...EMF/94