166
FXUS64 KCRP 101126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Potential for hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal
  flooding, continues Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue Friday and Saturday.
  There is a medium chance that the Rip Current Risk will be High
  on Sunday.

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect Thursday through Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Minor Coastal Flooding continues to be the main story at least
through Friday, but possibly through the weekend. The P-ETSS is
showing tide levels reaching around 2.2ft MSL during times of high
tide through Sunday. However, the winds over the coastal waters are
forecast to decrease to 10-15 knots by Friday afternoon. Winds will
persist out of the northeast and east through Saturday which is
still conducive for tidal overflow. There is currently a Coastal
Flood Advisory through 7 AM Friday morning and another advisory will
likely be issued for the next high tide Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. Saturday night into Sunday, minor coastal flooding
is less certain due to light winds shifting to the southeast.
However, swell periods are forecast to increase to around 8 seconds
by then which may give the water more momentum to reach the dunes.

As for the Rip Current Risk, since the winds will be along the shore
and the new moon is days away, the risk will be kept at moderate
levels Friday and Saturday. As the winds shift around to the east
and southeast Saturday afternoon through Sunday combined with
increasing swell periods to around 8 seconds, the Rip Current Risk
will likely increase to High.

As for the weather, high pressure aloft will bring drier air across
S TX Friday and Saturday leading to very low (<10%) chance of
showers through the weekend. The high will remain dominant through
next week with very low rain chances continuing. But, can not rule
out a few rogue showers along the sea breeze. The drier air will
also lead to warmer highs and cooler lows Friday through Saturday.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected during the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas through tonight
with light variable winds only expected to increase over 10 knots
out of the east at CRP/ALI later this morning into the afternoon.
Drier conditions, with only mentionable rain chances south of all
terminals. Mostly clear skies overnight with calm winds poses a
risk for light patchy fog to develop over the inland Coastal
Plains. Therefore added TEMPOs between 09-12Z for VCT/ALI but
confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A northeast fresh to strong (BF 5-6) flow will continue through
Friday morning then weaken through the day to a moderate (BF4)flow
by Friday afternoon through Saturday. The flow will become more
easterly Saturday and southeasterly Sunday and weaken to a gentle to
moderate (BF 3-4) flow. Very low (<10%) rain chances expected
through next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Drier air is expected to move across the region Friday through the
weekend with low RH values around 30%, mainly northern Brush Country
to the Rio Grande Plains. However, a generally weak northeast to
east wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Minimum RH
values increase next week as winds become more east to southeast and
usher low level moisture into the area. The chance for wetting rains
is very low (<10%) through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  67  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          93  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            94  67  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             93  64  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          89  70  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  64  90  62 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       86  74  85  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94