236
FXUS64 KCRP 011656
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1156 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Rain-free and dry conditions with PWATs around 1.0" will remain
intact across South Texas today. Skies will remain mostly clear
and cause temperatures to rise above normal into the low to mid
90s with heat indices nearing 100 both today and Wednesday. Lows
tonight will drop in the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the
coast.

Tonight into Wednesday, a band of PVA associated with the tailing
end of a mid- level trough over the eastern CONUS will drape
across the northern Gulf into South Texas. Accompanied by near
normal PWATs of 1.5-1.6" over the waters, will warrant low to
medium rain chances (20-50%) over the open waters. The stability
over land at night will likely prohibit any rain chances inland
but have included a low chance (20%) over the immediate coast on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Key Message:

- Medium (40%) chance of tropical cyclone development continues
  over the Western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf of Mexico
  through the next 7 days.

By late this week, model guidance indicates a tropical wave
approaching the western Gulf of Mexico. At the time of writing, the
National Hurricane Center has placed a 40% chance of development on
this possible system over the next seven days. If this pattern
materializes, the combination of increased moisture from the
tropical wave and a secondary trough moving across the Southern
Plains providing sufficient lift will lead to a higher potential for
showers and thunderstorms towards the latter half of the week.

There are still discrepancies between model solutions regarding
moisture levels, contributing to uncertainty in precipitation
forecasts. The ECMWF favors higher PWATs and greater rain chances
across the region, while the GFS suggests drier conditions, but
still supports precipitation over area waters and along the coast.
The NBM also leans toward a wetter outcome. Given the uncertainty in
model projections, rain chances have been kept between 20-55% over
land, in line with the NBM, with higher chances over the waters.

High temperatures during the long-term period are expected to remain
above normal. Typically, during the first week of October, highs
normally range from the mid to upper 80s across the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads, with low 90s across the Rio Grande Plains
and Brush Country. However, over the next several days, highs are
forecast to reach the low to mid 90s throughout the region.
Overnight lows will remain near normal, ranging from the mid 60s to
low 70s. We may see these temperatures drop a bit by early next week
as a weak cold front slides southward on Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Dry conditions will continue through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. There could be some MVFR visibility across the
Victoria Crossroads from 09Z-13Z, so have included a TEMPO for
this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Weak to moderate east to northeasterly flow through Wednesday with
low to medium rain chances from 20 to 50 percent through the
middle of the week. Weak to moderate flow is expected through the
end of the workweek with wave heights of 2-3 feet. Rain chances
will increase to high (50-80%) Friday and into the weekend along
with an increase in winds to near or above 20 knots as models show
a tropical wave approaching the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  91  72  89 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          68  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             69  94  68  93 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          74  91  75  91 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           70  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        71  93  70  92 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       77  88  77  87 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...LS/77