353
FXUS64 KCRP 190828
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
328 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Another couple of warm and humid days are in store for South Texas
today and Friday as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the
region. Temperatures today are forecast to run a degree or so higher
than yesterday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s range. Heat
index values will generally range around 105-109 at most locations,
but will peak at 110-114 over portions of the Coastal Bend this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 6 PM over
inland portions of Kleberg, Nueces and San Patricio counties.
Elsewhere along the coast, heat indices may meet or exceed Advisory
criteria this afternoon, but will be brief enough not to grant
its issuance. Temperatures on Friday will be very similar to
today, and additional Advisories will need to be evaluated at
later forecast packages. A few showers will remain possible today
and tomorrow mainly along the sea breeze, but chances will stay
below 25%.

Based on observations from buoy 42020 swell periods have increased
to around 8-10 seconds, but swell heights have remained below 1
foot. Astronomical tides have continued to run about 0.5-0.7 ft
above predicted which brought high tide levels at Port Aransas to
around 1.7 ft during the last high tide cycle. Astronomical tides
will run slightly higher today and Friday, and a Coastal Flood
Advisory may be required later on. Have opted for holding off on
issuing one right now as I would like to see how these conditions
transfer into the coast first, but will need continued monitoring
for possible issuance. The risk for rip currents has also remained
low, but will also need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

We remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging as we
head into the weekend. Low level moisture in place will allow for
low (~20%) chances for showers and storms, generally along the sea
breeze, through the weekend. The pattern begins to change late over
the weekend into early next week as an upper trough digs towards the
Four Corners and ejects across the Plains. An associated cold front
will be sent south across the state. This boundary will likely stall
to our north. However, some guidance suggests it may make it here
(not too confident in this solution but it would be nice).
Regardless, moisture will pool ahead of this boundary, leading to an
uptick in chances for showers and storms through the work week. High
temps through the period look to settle into the 90s with heat
indices generally in the 100-105 range. This will promote a minor to
moderate heat risk daily.

We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal
flooding over the weekend. Gerling-Hanson plots reveal a secondary
wave system with 9-10s periods. PETSS guidance hints at tides
nearing 2ft MSL during high tide this weekend. Confidence is not too
high at this time but it is worth monitoring.

Lastly, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low
pressure across the Northwest Caribbean. There is a medium (40%)
chance of development over the next 7 days as this system drifts
north-northwest towards the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Winds will continue to diminish becoming light overnight.
Moisture is still in place so, while guidance continues to
downplay any chances for fog or low ceilings, have once again gone
with persistence and put in TEMPO groups for LIFR ceilings for
ALI and VCT from 10Z-14Z. Have also included a TEMPO for MVFR
ceilings from 10Z-14Z for CRP. Otherwise, VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next
week. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance will
lead to a low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  95  77 /  20  10  20   0
Victoria          97  75  96  73 /  20  10  10   0
Laredo            97  78  97  77 /  10  10  20   0
Alice             96  76  95  75 /  20  10  20   0
Rockport          93  80  92  80 /  20  10  20   0
Cotulla           98  78  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        96  77  95  77 /  20  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       90  81  89  80 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ242>244.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...LS