Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
452 FXUS64 KCRP 041109 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Low to Moderate 15-30% rain chances across the region today and tonight. - Isolated thunderstorms mainly during afternoon/evening hours this 4th of July holiday. - Low to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Area Forecast Discussion... (Sunday through Sunday) A mid-level shortwave will move across the region today and tonight and will combine with decreasing moisture (PWATs dropping from the 75th percentile) resulting in low to moderate (15-30%) rain chances across the region. The best chances will be towards the northwestern portions of South Texas. This could impact 4th of July celebrations/fireworks so please plan accordingly. The remainder of the weekend is looking fairly dry. The next shot for some activity will accompany an inverted trough moving westward across the Gulf, approaching the Texas coast early in the week. PVA across our region associated with this disturbance will be limited along with PWATs near or slightly below normal, so have kept low chances (15-25%) for showers on Monday/Tuesday. The remainder of the period is lacking any noticeable features with PoPs very low (<10%). Warmer temperatures are expected across our CWA starting mid-week with an increase in heat risk related illness. Expect heat indices of around 100-110 throughout the week. Afternoon surface temperatures will reach into the low to mid-90s and will approach 105 by late next week out west. Overnight lows will generally hover in the mid-70s accompanied by muggy conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 MVFR conditions are expected to continue this morning across a few sites with a low chance for IFR. Any site that dips below VFR should rebound by 15-18z and remain VFR throughout the rest of the TAF cycle. Winds will increase this afternoon before decreasing this evening after 02-04z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A moderate (BF-4) onshore breeze will become a gentle breeze (BF-3) by early next week. Periods of moderate flow can be expected across the bays and nearshore waters through mid-week before increasing in coverage across all the waters for the second half of next week. Low chances (15-25%) for showers/thunderstorms are progged for Monday and Tuesday across the waters. Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 78 89 77 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 90 76 91 73 / 20 10 20 0 Laredo 93 77 93 76 / 20 20 20 10 Alice 93 75 91 73 / 10 10 20 0 Rockport 89 80 88 79 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 92 77 93 75 / 30 20 30 10 Kingsville 91 77 89 75 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 88 80 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84