988
FXUS64 KCRP 222312
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
512 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Key Message:

- Elevated fire weather conditions through early this evening over
  the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country

Light southeast winds this evening will become variable overnight.
Despite these low level winds, relative humidity values have
dropped to 15-25% this afternoon and with critically dry fuels
and energy release component over the 90th percentile, a Fire
Danger Statement has been issued.

Mostly clear to clear skies through Saturday, lows tonight
dropping into the mid 40s over the northern portion of the CWA to
the lower 60s right along the coast. Surface high shifts eastward
into the SE CONUS, leading to more persistent onshore flow, warm
air advection (WAA) and increasing moisture. The increasing
dewpoints will help negate elevated fire with concerns with
minimum relative humidity over 35%. High temperatures will likely
reach the lower to mid 80s across most of South Texas. Lows
Saturday night will be around 10 degrees warmer than tonight,
ranging from the mid 50s inland to around 70 over the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet conditions will persist through the beginning of the week as
the surface high begins to progress to the eastwards. A slight
relief from the above normal temperatures will come after the
passage of the front on Tuesday. Though it will only last for the
day, temperatures will be more seasonal with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s out west. Due to the presence of onshore flow in the
region temperatures will return to above normal values ahead of our
next stronger cold front Thursday. Temperatures will be pretty
seasonal there after with our lows returning to the 40s and 50s
through the remainder of the period. The pressure gradient will
tighten due to the surface high moving off to the east and the
approaching low to the north which will increase our winds. This
will allow for Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters late
this weekend into early next week. Similar conditions will occur
again around mid week through the remainder of the period as the
next front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Pretty much VFR is expected for the next 24 hours, however, the
models are expecting with the low level moisture from the onshore
flow that MVFR or worse is possible at ALI around 12z/Sat. Have
added in MVFR VSBY at ALI between 12z and 15z, however, uncertain
about this. Would expect more VFR conditions as it will take a
little more time for the moisture to pool before there would be an
expectation of fog. Otherwise, everywhere will be VFR through
00z/Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Weak east to southeasterly flow through tonight will shift more
southeasterly during the day on Saturday, before increasing to 15
to 20 knots out of the south late Saturday night. Moderate to
strong winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and persist
through Monday before returning back to weak to moderate levels.
Rain chances will remain less than 10% through Monday with low
chances for rain, 20-30%, Tuesday through Thursday across the
offshore waters between 20-60 nautical miles off the Middle Texas
Coast. Flow will return to moderate to strong levels around mid
week and will persist through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    54  81  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          44  81  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            55  83  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             50  83  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          60  79  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           51  83  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        52  82  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       65  78  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JSL/86