909
FXUS64 KCRP 132359
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
659 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Coastal Flooding expected during high tides through at least
  Monday night

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues through this afternoon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

This morning, numerous webcams across the barrier islands once again
showed water levels that reached the dunes during high tide. Swell
periods will continue to remain elevated (above 8 seconds) through
at least Monday night, with current swell heights of 1-3 feet and
swell periods of 8-10 seconds per buoys 42092 and 42019. The P-ETSS
model continues to show water levels reaching between 2.1-2.3 feet
above Mean Sea Level (MSL) tonight during high tide with a downtrend
beginning Tuesday night across the barrier islands. Apart from the
increased swell heights and periods, the observed minus predicted
tide values are still at 0.80 ft, down from 1.10 feet a couple days
ago. With the longer swell periods hanging around and adding the
0.80 ft value to the predicted 1.2 foot water level at high tide
tonight, we are expecting water levels to reach at least 2.0 feet
MSL tonight. As we head into Tuesday and mid-week, swell periods are
expected to continue decreasing which will help tame the threat of
this coastal flooding event. The observed minus predicted tidal
values for the bays continue to fall. They are currently down to
0.40 feet from 0.70-0.90 feet a couple days ago. Therefore, we
removed the bays from tonight`s Coastal Flood Advisory and only went
with the barrier islands.

Other than that, slightly above normal temperatures are expected
across South Texas with only slim chances (less than 10%) for rain
through Thursday night, except for Tuesday, where low end rain
chances (20-25%) can be anticipated for the southern Brush Country.
While low end rain chances (20-25%) return next weekend,
accumulations are expected to be minimal less than 0.25" for any
area that would be lucky enough to see a shower.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of the night. By early
Tuesday morning between 10-14Z, light patchy fog from ALI to VCT
will lead to brief MVFR conditions. In addition, LRD and COT are
expected to develop MVFR CIGs starting around 11Z through
approximately 15Z in response to a surge of moisture moving up the
Rio Grande. VFR conditions resume by mid to late Tuesday morning
across S TX. Light and variable winds tonight will become
predominantly east at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20
knots through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A moderate breeze (BF 4) is expected through Tuesday evening before
a gentle breeze returns (BF 3) Tuesday night. Winds Thursday
afternoon are expected to increase and promote a moderate breeze
once again. Slim rain chances (less than 10%) are expected everyday
except for Monday night and late this week when low (15-25%) chances
for rain are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Drier conditions are expected this week with Wednesday expected to
be the driest day with minimum relative humidity values ranging from
25-40% in the afternoon. Although winds will be weak, the Energy
Release Component those for Wednesday is expected to range from the
55-85th percentile within the area of the lowest relative humidity
values which will yield a low chance for elevated fire weather
conditions. Other than Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions
are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  87  67  88 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          62  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            70  90  68  92 /   0  20   0   0
Alice             68  90  63  92 /   0  20   0   0
Rockport          74  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           69  90  65  93 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        70  88  64  89 /  10  20   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  85  75  85 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...TE/81