873
FXUS64 KCRP 041953
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
253 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:


- Minor coastal flooding on Gulf-facing beaches on the barrier
islands and coastal Calhoun/Aransas Counties through Saturday
morning.

- Breezy conditions today and tonight across the Victoria Crossroads
and Coastal Bend (gusting 30-40 mph).

- Moderate Heat Risk this afternoon.

Portions of northwest and northeast locales within South Texas are
under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
today and tomorrow capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

Models are in good agreement with timing and location of a 500 mb
low over the Desert SW today and is progged to swing across northern
MX before lifting northeast over the Southern Plains this weekend.
Currently, a LLJ up to 55 knots at 850mb is over the region as a
result of tighter pressure gradients between the aforementioned
low and a mid-level high off the eastern FL coast. Other than that
not much to talk about in the short term as we will remain under
a southwesterly flow aloft and southerly to southeasterly flow at
the surface. There is a dry cold front that will approach our
region today with FROPA across South Texas progged for Saturday
morning.

Despite FROPA have maintained low to moderate PoPs (25-45% chance)
mainly across extreme northwestern locales of South Texas tonight
and northeastern locales tomorrow.

Expect afternoon temperatures today to max out in the mid 80s to
around 100. Tonight, lows will range in the mid 60s to 70s. Highs
tomorrow will range in the 80s with lows Saturday night into Sunday
dropping out in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A Wind Advisory is in effect across the northern Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads due to winds gusting up to around 40 MPH. For
offshore, elevated winds and swells are contributing to an
increased risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding, which
is expected to persist through much of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Well below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions Sunday through
Thursday (refer to the Fire Weather Discussion below for more
information)

Much drier and cooler conditions will start off the Extended period
in the wake of a passing cold front. Daytime temperatures will run
around 10-15 degrees below normal on Sunday and around 10 degrees
below normal on Monday. Highs will range in the mid 60s to low 70s
Sunday, and in the 70s areawide on Monday. Sunday night will be the
coldest out of the Extended cycle, with lows dipping into the low to
mid 40s across much of the area, which is almost 20 degrees below
normal at some locations! Although a few disturbances will track in
the flow aloft, PWATs will remain well below normal (<1") for this
time of year which will maintain rain chances close to zero all
week. At the surface, the ridge will drift eastward around mid week
allowing for onshore flow to resume gradually bringing back the
warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to bounce back into the 80s
range on Wednesday and into the mid 90s out west Thursday and
Friday. Overnight lows will be slower to recover, and will generally
stay below 60 degrees all week (except along the immediate coast and
over the Rio Grande Plains).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Currently have a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions accompanied by
southerly winds gusting up to around 30-35 knots across eastern
terminals. Expect winds to continue gusting during the overnight
hours in response to a low level jet near the coast. A cold front
is expected to move southward across the region tonight and
tomorrow morning with winds shifting westerly/northwesterly along
and behind the front. There`s a moderate chance for
showers/thunderstorms around VCT with a low to moderate chance
near COT/LRD and a very low chance (10%) across CRP/ALI. Currently
have MFVR conditions overnight but can`t rule out IFR conditions
due to low ceilings and/or visibilities. Expecting VFR conditions
to return by the afternoon after the front has passed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southerly flow is expected ahead of our
next cold front on Saturday. Winds will weaken to more moderate
levels (BF-4) Saturday as the front approaches and sweeps across
the area. Strong to near gale (BF 6-7) northerly winds will develop Saturday
night in the wake of a front and continue through Sunday morning.
Winds will gradually decrease Sunday afternoon before becoming fresh
(BF 5) Sunday night through Monday and then decreasing to gentle to
moderate levels (BF 3-4) Monday night. A light to gentle breeze will
then persist through mid week (BF 2-3). Rain chances will remain
near zero Sunday through Wednesday next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return late
weekend into early next week. Relative humidity values will drop
to the 20-30% range across the Brush Country on Sunday with Energy
Release Component (ERC) in the 50-70th percentile. Monday and
Tuesday are the days when the minimum relative humidity values
will be at their lowest point of the Extended forecast, 15-20%
across the Brush Country and 25-35% across the rest of South
Texas. These days will also coincide with higher ERC values as the
Texas A&M Forest Service is forecasting ERC values to be in the
70-80th percentile Monday, before these values expand eastward on
Tuesday. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across the Brush Country Monday through Thursday and
over portions of the Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  88  51  68 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          71  84  47  66 /  10  50  10   0
Laredo            68  87  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
Alice             71  88  50  69 /  10  10  10   0
Rockport          74  87  52  70 /  10  30  20   0
Cotulla           69  87  49  71 /  30  10   0   0
Kingsville        72  88  51  68 /  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       73  83  53  67 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-245>247-
     345>347-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ245-345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...BF/80