448
FXUS64 KCRP 300803
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
303 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

North to northwesterly flow aloft located in the upstream portion
of an upper trough today, will become westerly Tuesday as the
trough moves eastward and a broad ridge builds in over the Great
Plains. This setup will keep dry and mostly clear conditions in
place across South Texas through Tuesday with PWATs around an
inch (25th percentile). Highs today and Tuesday from the low to
upper 90s and tonight`s lows will range from the mid 60s inland to
the mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium (50%) chance of tropical cyclone development continues over
  the Western Caribbean into the Southern Gulf of Mexico through the
  next 7 days.

A predominately zonal flow pattern will persist across South Texas at
the start of the long-term period, with PWATs ranging from 1-1.25
inches. This dry, warm setup will limit rain chances. By Wednesday,
model guidance suggests that a tropical wave will approach from the
Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, disrupting the zonal flow
and supporting the development of a mid- to upper-level trough. If
this pattern materializes, the combination of increased moisture
from the tropical wave and a secondary trough moving across the
Southern Plains will provide sufficient lift leading to a higher
potential for showers and thunderstorms towards the latter half of
the week. Chances generally range from low to medium (20-50%), with
the greatest chances existing along the coast. Enhanced cloud cover
and increased rain chances may slightly moderate temperatures, but
they should remain near or slightly above average overall.

The aforementioned tropical disturbance remains a key uncertainty in
the forecast. At the time of writing, the National Hurricane Center
has placed a 50% chance of development on this possible system over
the next seven days. While model guidance currently suggests an
easterly track, potentially steering the system away from South
Texas, the situation remains fluid. Coastal impacts, such as
increased wave heights, increased risk of rip currents, and the
possibility of minor coastal flooding, could affect portions of the
Middle Texas Coast later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Persistent VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period
across most sites. The exception will be patchy fog over ALI
through early morning and the potential in VCT. This could lead to
brief MVFR/IFR conditions for those sites. The SREF shows a 25%
probability of visibilities 1SM or lower across the ALI area
Monday morning. Given latest observations with near 0 dewpoint
depressions, clear skies, and calm winds, visibilities may drop to
IFR/LIFR in ALI between 10-13Z. Winds will be light and variable
a majority of the TAF period, but briefly increase by 2-4 knots
across the Coastal Bend behind the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Weak and variable flow will continue through tonight before
becoming weak to moderate east to northeast through Tuesday night
with wave heights of 2-3 feet and a low chance of rain. Rain
chances will increase to medium to high (30-70%) mid-week through
the end of the week along with winds increasing to near 20 knots
as models show a tropical wave approaching the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          96  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            97  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          92  75  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           98  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  78  88  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE