Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
697 FXUS64 KCRP 111757 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Weak mid-level disturbance will bring a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon, shifting inland over the Coastal Plains with the seabreeze. - Daily low rain chances (10-40%) for morning showers over the waters and the afternoon seabreeze into the inland Coastal Plains. - Hot conditions continue with minor to moderate heat risk through the middle of the week worsening to moderate to major late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Latest base reflectivity imagery across the Coastal Bend shows showers isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing to initiate. Main impacts under any thunderstorm is a quick shower (up to a few tenths in accumulation) and frequent lightning. These will continue to move inland with the seabreeze through the remainder of the afternoon. Following into midweek, South Texas will be sandwiched between two high pressure systems, keeping diurnally driven (daytime heating and seabreeze) low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Looking forward into Friday and this upcoming weekend, a mid-level inverted trough looks to pass over or south of the region to Mexico from the Bay of Campeche area, leading to enhanced moisture (PWAT values around 2.0") and slightly higher rain chances. Heat remains the primary concern in the forecast with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday, increasing to moderate to major Thursday into the weekend. Max heat indices will peak from 105-109 then around the 110 mark late in the week. Elevated fire weather condition risk has decreased with relative humidity likely not to go below 30% across any part of the Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Quiet aviation conditions persist through this period with mainly VFR level conditions. A few showers are noted between CRP and VCT. Have removed mention of VCTS for CRP as chances are very low, and if it were to happen would be very brief. VCT however will keep enough chance to maintain the VCTS this afternoon. Mainly light southeasterly winds are expected today, though brief moderate level with the seabreeze. Expect light and somewhat variable winds to develop again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeasterly breeze with 1-2 ft seas will persist through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, winds pick up to mostly moderate (BF 4) strength, with seas increasing to 2-3 ft. Low rain chances (20-40%) will persist heading into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 96 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 74 97 75 98 / 10 20 10 30 Laredo 78 104 78 104 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 74 100 74 100 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 79 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 77 102 78 103 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 74 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...AE/82