163
FXUS64 KCRP 222037
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
237 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Key Message:

- Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight through 9 AM
  Thursday for northern portions of the County Warning Area

The onshore flow return this afternoon will be short-lived as a
weak cold front pushes through tonight into Thursday morning. This
will allow temperatures to once again plummet due to efficient
radiational cooling from light offshore flow, drier air, and only
half sky coverage. Lows will likely range from the upper 20s
northward to the mid 30s near the coast. A Freeze Warning is in
effect from midnight tonight through 9 AM Thursday for western and
northern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA).

Clearing skies north to south on Thursday with highs in the lower
to mid 50s and northerly winds 10-15 mph. Clouds will continue to
shift southeastward with the front Thursday night. PWATs will
likely be too low to include much if any mentionable rain chances
late Thursday night into early Friday morning, sitting below 0.5".
However, do maintain a low to medium chance for rain over the Gulf
waters where PWATs remain somewhat elevated in junction with a
mid-level trough and 850-700mb frontogenesis aiding in lift.
Another Freeze Warning is likely Thursday night into early Friday
morning for majority of South Texas with freezing temperature
probabilities ranging from 40-90% south to north respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Freezing temperatures to continue Friday morning

- Warm-up into the 70s by this weekend

Another mid-level trough will push a boundary through the area to
start off the Extended period. Temperatures Friday morning are
forecast to drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s range, with wind chills
falling into the upper teens at some locations. Additional Freeze
Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories may be required. Low to medium
rain chances will remain over the coastal waters on Friday, but dry
conditions can be expected inland due to the lack of moisture (PWATs
<0.25").

Surface high pressure will be shifting eastward over the weekend,
allowing for onshore flow to resume across the area. Moisture will
pool in from the Gulf waters with PWATs rising to around 1.3-1.4"
Sunday to Monday period, and to near 1.5-1.7" by mid next week ahead
of the next mid level disturbance. Low to medium rain chances can be
expected across the eastern half of the CWA from Sunday through
Wednesday next week.

Temperatures will be at near normal for the period, though a weak
frontal boundary may near the area early in the week. Highs are
progged to warm into the 70s by Sunday, then drop back into the 60s
Monday and Tuesday, and again into the 70s by Wednesday. Overnight
lows will still be in the 30s Saturday morning, but will warm up
into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Light variable
or southeast winds through tonight will shift northerly tomorrow
morning at around 12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Mid to upper
level clouds return near the end of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Weak onshore flow will shift northerly tonight and strengthen to
15-20 knots in wake of a weak cold front. Moderate to strong winds
will veer northeasterly through the day Thursday, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions more likely over the offshore waters late
Thursday night. Winds will weaken to under 20 knots Friday
morning and continue decreasing to under 15 knots by Friday
afternoon while shifting to the southeast. Stronger winds could
return this weekend but appear to be limited to the offshore
waters, from 20-60 nautical miles off the coast. Winds will shift
back to the northeast to east early next week in the wake of our
next front. Low to medium rain chances return Friday morning, and
again Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    35  53  33  56 /   0  10  10   0
Victoria          27  55  26  56 /   0   0  10   0
Laredo            33  57  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             32  55  29  57 /   0  10  10   0
Rockport          35  54  34  56 /   0  10  10   0
Cotulla           31  59  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        34  53  32  56 /   0  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       41  51  40  54 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for
     TXZ229>234-239-240-246-247-346.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...EMF/94