383
FXUS64 KCRP 070919 CCA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
319 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A warm front continues its northward advance today bringing
increased surface moisture to the region as onshore winds raise
dew points into the 70s. This influx of moisture, resulting in
low dew point depressions, has fostered some fog development
overnight, potentially creating hazardous conditions on roadways
for early morning commuters today. Please use caution if traveling
this morning!

Isolated streamer showers are currently moving across local
waters, with shower coverage expected to increase through the day
today as the aforementioned warm front progresses northward. This
activity will be enhanced by an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough currently positioned over the Four Corners region. Rainfall
rates are anticipated to remain light.

By Friday the mid- to upper-level low associated with this trough
will shift east-northeast into the Central Plains, driving a cold
front into the western portions of our forecast area by late
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead
of and along the front, with the greatest chances occurring from
late Friday afternoon through the evening and overnight hours.
More on this in the long term discussion. Precipitation amounts
are likely again to be limited with this frontal passage.

In terms of temperatures, they will remain above normal through
the period thanks to the lifting of the warm front. Highs will
reach the mid-80s to low 90s, with overnight lows holding steady
in the low to mid-70s.

Despite tides remaining approximately 1 foot above mean sea level,
wave heights and periods have subsided sufficiently. Will keep
the Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through 00Z this evening out
of caution, however, by Friday, an increase in swell periods to
around 11-14 seconds and wave heights reaching 7-8 feet in
response to Hurricane Rafael is anticipated. These conditions are
likely to elevate the rip current risk significantly and may
prompt the return of increased coastal flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Continuing to watch Hurricane Rafael.

- Hazardous marine conditions and coastal hazards.

We open up the long term with an upper level low lifting across the
Southern Plains. An associated cold front will be moving across the
region Friday night into Saturday morning. Ample moisture in place
(PWATs 1.6-1.8"), relatively weak upper forcing, and sufficient low
level convergence along the boundary will warrant a 20-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning as the front moves
offshore. We will hold onto some low-end rain chances through the
day Saturday as we could see some weak overrunning conditions in the
300-305K level. Northerly flow through the weekend will regain an
onshore component early next week. Another upper trough looks to
slide across the Plains by the middle of next week which will send
another cold front our way.

Saturday`s cold front looks to cool us off nicely with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s across the region. We likely won`t get as cold
overnight as we saw earlier this week with lows in the low to mid
60s. With that said, there is a roughly 20-30% chance of temps
falling below 60 degrees early Sunday morning. Once onshore flow
resumes, we add on a few degrees daily with highs back into the mid
80s to around 90 degrees early next week.

The main focus over the next few days will be the eventual path of
Hurricane Rafael. The system has moved off the northern coast of
Cuba and will continue to move west across the Gulf of Mexico over
the next several days. Increased wind shear should result in some
steady weakening of the system over the weekend. We will need to
keep a close eye on just how far west it goes. We will begin to see
impacts over the weekend as increased swells arrive along our coast.
Gerling-Hanson plots continue to suggest 12-15s swells arriving
along a tertiary wave system. This energy would be more than enough
to promote minor coastal flooding, especially during times of high
tide. This would also lead to a high rip current risk through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Clouds can be seen per satellite spreading across S TX this
evening. CIGs across the eastern sites are a mix of IFR and MVFR
levels. Otherwise, forecast looks on track with brief periods of
IFR/LIFR CIGs expected across the area. As for fog, VSBYs are
expected to vary between MVFR and IFR, but not expecting anything
below 1SM at this time. This is due to the low stratus deck and a
20 knot low level jet, hindering the fog from becoming dense. That
being said, <1SM VSBY in a few locations can be ruled out. The
SREF has increased the probability of visibilities less than 1SM
to around 35% at ALI to 45% at VCT with much lower probabilities
across the remainder of S TX. Conditions improve to VFR by mid
morning Thursday. Winds will be east to southeast and light
through the early morning hours, then strengthen to 10-15 knots by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Weak to moderate east-southeasterly flow will continue through
tomorrow as a warm front moves northward through the area. Swells
will increase Friday and into the weekend as Hurricane Rafael
moves into the Western Gulf. Seas look to climb to 7-10 feet over
our offshore waters. This along with the approaching cold front
is expected to lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions through the
weekend. Moderate north- northeasterly flow will develop on
Saturday before gradually weakening on Sunday. Low to moderate
rain chances continue through Saturday. Onshore flow returns early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  73  88  69 /  10  20  20  30
Victoria          86  69  88  65 /  30  30  40  40
Laredo            89  71  88  67 /  10  10  10  20
Alice             88  71  90  68 /  10  20  20  30
Rockport          84  74  86  68 /  10  20  20  40
Cotulla           88  72  87  66 /  30  20  20  40
Kingsville        88  72  91  68 /  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       83  76  85  72 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...KRS/98