676
FXUS64 KCRP 091902
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
202 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated fire weather conditions across most of S TX, with a few
locations briefly at critical levels, will continue through the
remainder of this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon with low RH
values currently ranging from 25% west to 40% near the coast along
with gusty northwest winds. There have been brief periods of
critical fire weather conditions in a few locations, but has not
been widespread nor persistent enough to warrant a Red Flag
Warning, at this time. Therefore, will maintain the Fire Weather
Danger Statement (RFD) for S TX through this evening.

High pressure will settle across S TX tonight allowing winds to
diminish, and become light and variable. The combination of clear
skies and light winds will be conducive for efficient radiational
cooling overnight with lows around 40 across the Victoria Crossroads
and Brush Country to the mid 40s along the Rio Grande and along the
coast. The high pressure will slowly move east on Monday resulting
in light onshore flow returning to the area. Monday is expected to
be sunny with pleasant temperatures in the 70s across most of S TX
to around 80 along the Rio Grande. Light southerly winds continue
Monday night, bringing scattered clouds back into S TX and slightly
warmer temperatures by around 5 degrees. Lows will generally be in
the mid to upper 40s.

Minimum RH values on Monday will range between 15-25% across the
inland portions of S TX with 25-40% right along the coast. Thus,
elevated fire weather remains a concern. However, winds are expected
to be light which should keep conditions below critical levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated Fire Risk possible daily into next weekend over most of
South Texas.

- Wednesday through Friday a low to moderate chance of 100F in the
Rio Grande Plains.

- Friday a moderate to high chance of 100 or greater for the
Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains.

A gradual warming trend will set in early this week as surface high
pressure shifts eastward, allowing low-level flow to turn south-
southeasterly. By Tuesday, temperatures will rise into the 80s, with
increasing moisture supporting minimum relative humidity values of
20-35% across most areas, slightly higher (40-50%) along the Coastal
Bend.

On Wednesday, strong southerly winds will push high temperatures
near 100 degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains,
with a medium (40-60%) likelihood of exceeding triple digits.
Additionally, an upper-level trough moving across the Central Plains
will push a weak dryline into the region Wednesday afternoon,
accompanied by a subtle wind shift to the south-southwest and lower
dewpoints and relative humidity values, leading to periods of
elevated fire danger. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain
below critical thresholds for fire weather warnings.

Behind the aforementioned dryline, a weak, cold front will move
through the region Wednesday night, bringing only the slightest dip
in temperatures on Thursday. This will reduce the chance of 100-
degree highs in our western areas to around 30-40%. However, as
southerly flow returns and strengthens on Friday, temperatures will
once again climb, with a medium to high (60-80%) probability of
reaching 100 degrees across much of South Texas.

A stronger cold front will push through the region late Friday into
Saturday morning. This front will usher in even more dry air across
the entire region, with relative humidity values dropping below 20%.
Westerly winds will increase to 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph,
leading to near-critical fire weather conditions. Highs on Saturday
will range from the lower 80s along the Coastal Bend to near 90
degrees out west, with additional warming into the 90s in the cards
for the area by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The main
concern is winds. Northwest winds gusting to 23-30KT is expected
to continue through mid afternoon with a gradual decrease through
late afternoon. After 00Z winds are expected to significantly drop
off. Light and variable winds are expected overnight across the
western areas with light northerly winds across the eastern areas.
Very light and variable winds are expected across S TX on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Moderate northwest to north winds this evening will decrease
overnight, becoming light and variable Monday. Light southerly
wind is expected Monday night. South-southeasterly winds will
increase to a moderate to fresh breeze by Tuesday afternoon and
persist through Wednesday night. Winds will gradually turn to the
southwest on Thursday and become more of a gentle breeze before
becoming more southerly and strong ahead of an approaching cold
front on Friday. In the wake of the frontal boundary, winds veer
to the northwest on Saturday while maintaining a fresh breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    45  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          41  76  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            46  80  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             41  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          51  72  57  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           44  81  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        44  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       52  68  56  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231-
     232-236-237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE/81