025
FXUS64 KCRP 041104
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
604 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding on Gulf-facing beaches on the barrier
  islands and coastal Calhoun/Aransas Counties through Saturday
  morning.

- Breezy conditions across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal
  Bend (gusting 30-40 mph) through Friday night.

- Moderate Heat Risk on Friday.

Strong southeasterly winds continue across the western Gulf as a
persistent mid-to-upper level trough over the Desert Southwest and
a subtropical ridge over the Southeastern CONUS create a strong
pressure gradient. Winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40
knots and seas 7 to 12 feet are forecast for our marine zones.
With these conditions contributing to water levels approximately
1.25-2.00 feet above predicted tides, this has prompted the
issuance of another Coastal Flood Advisory through 7 AM Saturday.
The combination of strong onshore flow and long-period swells is
also driving a high risk of rip currents along the barrier
islands, which will persist through Saturday.

Inland, winds will also remain breezy through today and tonight
as another 40-45 knot LLJ develops overhead and the surface
pressure gradient remains tight in response to a cold front
stalled over Central Texas. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph
with gusts exceeding 40 mph have lead to Wind Advisory criteria
being met across the Victoria Crossroads. An Advisory has been
issued through 7 PM this evening. Temperatures will remain well
above normal today. Highs will climb into the 90s, with some
locations across the Brush Country flirting with the triple
digits. Dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to moderate heat risk
during the day. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid-
to-upper 60s out west to the low-to-mid 70s along the Coastal
Bend.

By late Friday night into early Saturday morning, the leading
edge of a cold front will begin approaching South Texas,
increasing rain chances along the Rio Grande Plains and portions
of the Victoria Crossroads. However, the best chances for
measurable precipitation will be north of the area. By Saturday
afternoon and evening, the aforementioned mid-to-upper level
trough will swing into the Southern Plains, pushing the cold front
through the region. PWATs will increase between 1.3-1.7 inches
ahead of the boundary, supporting a low chance (20-30%) of showers
and thunderstorms. Despite the frontal passage, daytime highs on
Saturday may still reach the upper 80s to low 90s before cooler
conditions arrive behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front Saturday with well below normal temperatures Sunday and
  Monday

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions early next week

The long term forecast remains on track from previous forecast
packages. Temperatures will quickly plummet Saturday night in the
wake of the cold front as colder air advects into the region.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be well below normal with
temperatures as low as 10-15 degrees below normal Sunday.
Temperatures will gradually begin to warm up Tuesday and Wednesday
before returning to near normal vales Thursday and Friday. Chilly
overnight lows will hang around Saturday night through Tuesday night
with lows in the 60s not returning until Wednesday night. As for
rain chances, low (10-20%) chances for rain will linger Saturday
night along the immediate coast and portions of the Victoria
Crossroads. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected throughout the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR CIGs currently sit at all sites and have a low probability of
lowering to IFR levels at some terminals just before sunrise.
CIGs are expected to lift throughout the day today to a mix of
VFR/MVFR levels before lowering once more by the evening hours.
Winds remain elevated and will strengthen even more late this
morning into the afternoon hours as a low level jet sets up near
the coast. Expect winds to be around 15-20 knots sustained with
gusts of around 25-35 knots. Occasional gusts to 40 knots cannot
be ruled out, mainly across our easternmost sites. By the end of
this TAF cycle, isolated shower potential comes into play along
our next cold frontal passage. Included PROB30 groups for -TSRA at
LRD and COT beginning around 05Z Saturday and 11Z for VCT, continuing
until the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Fresh to strong onshore flow (BF 5/6) will result in 9-12 ft
waves in the offshore waters, and 7-9 ft along the nearshores.
Winds will weaken to more moderate levels (BF-4) Saturday as a
front approaches and sweeps across the area. Strong to near gale
(BF-6/7) northerly winds then develop Saturday night in the wake
of the front and continue through Sunday morning. Winds will
gradually decrease Sunday afternoon before becoming fresh (BF-5)
Sunday night through Monday before decreasing to gentle to
moderate (BF-3/4) levels Monday night. Low to medium (20-60%) rain
chances will linger Saturday night across the Gulf waters before
quickly decreasing to near zero by Sunday morning. Dry conditions
will continue Sunday through next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today across
the Brush Country as minimum relative humidity values will drop
to the 20-30% range. The limiting factor will be the Energy
Release Component (ERC) values below the 50th percentile and
limited 20 ft winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
will return early next week. Elevated fire weather conditions will
creep back into the picture Sunday as relative humidity values
drop to the 20-30% range across the Brush Country with Energy
Release Component (ERC) in the 55th-60th percentile. Monday and
Tuesday are the days when the minimum relative humidity values
will be at their lowest point of the extended forecast, 12-20%
across the Brush Country and 22-30% across the rest of South
Texas. These days will also coincide with higher ERC values as the
Texas A&M Forest Service is forecasting ERC values to be in the
70th-75th percentile Monday and increasing to the 70th-80th
percentile Tuesday. This will lead to elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across the Brush Country Monday Thursday and
Friday with the threat expanding to most of South Texas Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  72  89  51 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          88  72  83  48 /  10  10  50  10
Laredo            99  68  88  49 /   0  20   0   0
Alice             96  71  88  50 /   0  10  10  10
Rockport          85  74  85  52 /   0  10  30  10
Cotulla           98  67  87  49 /   0  40   0   0
Kingsville        93  71  90  50 /   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       83  73  84  53 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-245>247-
     345>347-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ245-345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...KRS/98