692
FXUS64 KCRP 281807
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1207 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Patchy to areas of fog over the Coastal Plains late tonight into
Saturday morning

- Moderate (40-60%) chance of visibility less than 1 mile

Light northeasterly winds this morning will be short-lived as the
surface high shifts eastward over the northern Gulf Coast and
onshore flow returns this afternoon. Subsidence from ridging aloft
will dominate and cause skies to clear by this evening, setting the
stage for climbing temperatures and a favorable night for fog. Highs
today will likely climb from the low 70s along the coast to around
80 over the Brush Country. Winds will become light and variable
overnight, enhancing radiational cooling as low temperatures drop
towards the dewpoints in the mid 50s. Patchy to areas of fog,
sometimes dense is expected late tonight into Saturday morning. HREF
contains a moderate (40-60%) chance of visibilities less than 1
mile.

A very relaxed pressure gradient will keep light and variable winds
through Saturday morning before another weak surface high shifts
eastward and tightens the pressure gradient, resulting in onshore
flow once again by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm
with highs in the low to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Warming trend and mostly dry through Tuesday

- Risk of sea fog this weekend into early next week in advance of an
approaching cold front.

- Cold front Tuesday night poses a threat of elevated fire weather
conditions in wake on Wednesday.

We`ll spring into a warming pattern during this long-term period as
mid-level ridging builds across the region this weekend. As onshore
flow resumes Saturday night into early Sunday, cloud cover will
periodically increase, and temperatures will reach the 80s across
most of the area. Similar conditions are expected Monday as
southerly flow persists. Additionally, rising dew points this
weekend into early next week, combined with cooler shelf waters, may
result in sea fog development across the bays and nearshore waters
before Tuesday.

By Tuesday, attention turns to an approaching cold front associated
with a strong system propagating across the Southern Plains. While
South Texas will have increasing moisture off the Gulf due to
southerly flow, most of the system`s favorable instability and
limited capping will likely remain north of the area, limiting storm
and precipitation chances. The current forecast remains dry, but
later updates may introduce a slight chance of rain, mainly in the
Victoria Crossroads region.

Although no significant cold air is expected with this system, much
drier air and breezy conditions will move into the region,
increasing the risk of elevated fire weather conditons by Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will subside by midweek. While afternoon highs
should remain near normal, overnight lows may dip below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR condition through the afternoon as the high pressure to the
north has made for a weak wind field. Onshore winds will produce
east to southeast winds at the TAF site in CRP, ALI, and VCT as
the sea breeze moves through this afternoon (already through at
CRP). Tonight, the moisture increases, and with the weak winds and
little cloud cover, will expect that fog, dense at times (IFR,
with LIFR or VLIFR likely) will form at the eastern TAFs as well.
COT shows some indication that it may fog, but probably MVFR
VSBYs there, and LRD shows no indication for anything under VFR.
Fog will last until around 15z at the latest, mixing out after
that.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Weak to moderate northeasterly winds this morning will weaken to
less than 10 knots this afternoon and persist through Saturday
morning before shifting more easterly in the late afternoon. Weak
to moderate onshore flow follows and persists through Monday before
becoming moderate to strong Monday night and Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Moderate northerly flow will likely follow
in wake of the front Tuesday night and Wednesday before shifting
to become onshore once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            79  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          71  56  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       68  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...JSL/86