Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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801 FXUS64 KCRP 061120 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Key Messages: - Tropical Storm Milton in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Milton is not expected to have any direct impacts to South Texas, other than increasing swells over the coastal waters by early in the week. - Minor coastal Flooding expected during times of high tide through Monday in response to a strengthening northeast wind across the coastal waters and increasing swell periods. - Moderate rip current risk on Monday. There is a low (15%) chance of rain showers and thunderstorms along the Middle Texas Coast for the day, as Milton continues to move slowly east and the old boundary over the Gulf, continues to produce convection. This sfc trough is filling and a new area of high pressure in the N Plains will continue to move to the southeast, with its tail end building into the South Texas. The models show the rain showers mainly this morning, before Milton moves east toward the Yucatan Peninsula, and begins to help reinforce the north to northeast flow on tonight and Monday. The dry air associated with the sfc high looks rather dry with PWAT values of around 1.00" for Monday. Looking upstream, where the dry air is now, skies will remain mostly sunny today, and sunny on Monday. High temperatures will remain in the 90-95F range through Monday before any temperatures changes are to occur (see the Long Term section). While Milton isn`t expected to affect the region directly, the cyclone will produce NE winds that will begin to increase the risk of rip currently to moderate on Monday. Not to mention that the Swell periods are expected to increase to 7-8 seconds on Monday as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of minor coastal flooding and rip currents through the middle of next week associated with Tropical Storm Milton A mid to upper level ridge will move over the southern Great Plains from the west while Tropical Storm Milton moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front early this week will stall just north of the area across the Hill Country, eventually pushing through South Texas mid-week as a reinforcing northerly flow Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula. The weak cold front won`t drop our temperatures much, but it will usher in significantly drier air which will our heat index (feels like temperature) near 90 degrees from mid-week through next weekend. Our greatest concern through the middle of next week will be hazardous marine and beach conditions. Swell periods of 8-10 seconds, wave heights of 4-6 feet, and persistent northeasterly flow promoting Ekman forcing, will likely cause water to reach the dunes during high tide. In addition, there will be an increasing risk of rip currents. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VCT is the only site that currently is MVFR (5sm) this morning, although ALI still has a 40% chance of being below 5 SM over the next hour or two. Otherwise spotty convection (10-15% coverage) over the Gulf, which should remain south of CRP and ALI. LRD and COT are expected to remain free of restrictions this morning. For the afternoon and overnight, expect VFR CIGs and VSBYs over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 East to northeast weak to moderate flow this morning will increase to moderate to strong during the afternoon offshore with a Small Craft Advisory. The winds tonight will diminish this evening to moderate, so that Small Craft Exercise Caution tonight, and then back to weak to moderate flow Monday. Weak to moderate northeasterly flow will remain in place Monday night through Thursday before winds shift back to the east Thursday night. Rain chances will be near zero for much of the week before increasing to just under 10% late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 95 67 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 94 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 93 69 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 97 71 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 91 71 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 87 77 88 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...JSL/86