Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
129 FXUS64 KCRP 041111 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Moderate to major heat risk Monday, then mainly moderate the rest of the week. - Low to moderate rain chances today then low the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Today, expect more shower/thunderstorm activity as a 700-500 mb shortwave moves across the region from north to south with the seabreeze helping to initiate convection. Forecast soundings reflect steep low-level lapse rates of 10.3 C/km and Eff Shear 30+ knots. These features combined with plenty of moisture (PWATs 1.75"-2.30"), will likely provide enough lift for storms to become strong. Have increase PoPs slightly to reflect a low to moderate (20-40%) chance for showers/thunderstorms. Tuesday, as a mid-level high begins to build over the region, moisture will decrease to near or slightly below normal according to the GEFS mean. With that said, will maintain 20-30 PoPs across the Coastal Plains/Victoria Crossroads. For the remainder of this week, expecting slightly below normal PWAT values and have <20% chance of precipitation each day with the seabreeze acting as the main source of lift. Looking ahead to next Sunday, an inverted trough hugging the TX coast will increase shower/storm chances again, mainly northeast to kick off the week. Surface temperatures throughout the forecast period continue to range between 90 along the coast to 105 out west each afternoon. Heat indices today will hover near Heat Advisory criteria, topping 110 in some locales across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country, but will hold off on issuing an advisory for now. Then, heat indices drop starting Tuesday to around 105-109 for the remainder of the period promoting a moderate to an isolated major heat risk. Overnight lows remain consistent around 75-80 degrees across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. We will, once again, have a low chance of patchy fog across the Coastal Plains, so have included a TEMPO for MVFR visibility for ALI from 11Z-13Z. By this afternoon, a low chance (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Victoria Crossroads, so have also included a PROB30 for thunder for VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A mainly light to gentle (BF 2-3) southerly flow is expected to continue through the work week with a few periods of moderate flow. Becoming gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) this upcoming weekend. There is generally a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week, mainly across the northern offshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 77 94 77 / 10 10 20 10 Victoria 97 75 95 74 / 40 20 30 10 Laredo 107 79 104 78 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 101 75 98 74 / 10 10 20 10 Rockport 92 80 92 80 / 10 10 20 10 Cotulla 104 78 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 99 76 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 91 81 90 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...LS/77