982
FXUS64 KCRP 080032
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

 - Broad area of high temperatures in the 90s, with temps maxing
   out in the mid 90s over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains.

 - Areas of sea fog with visibilities less than 1 nautical mile
   remains a concern through this weekend

Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf, in tandem with a dry
line extending from surface low pressure in southeastern Colorado
and down into the Big Bend region, continues southeasterly flow,
resulting in the steady stream of Gulf moisture. This persistent
pattern has resulted in sea fog creeping inland each night/early
morning. As such, and in collaboration with WFO Brownsville, we`ve
extended the Dense Fog Advisory for the bays and near-shore waters
through 10 AM Saturday. Hints among the HREF members show that
this cessation of fog in the near-shore waters may actually be
before this, so will pass this along to the next shift to keep an
eye for timing to end the product (if at all).

Temperature-wise, Saturday is gonna feel like a pseudo-Spring Day
with high temperatures for most locations reaching the 90 degree
mark. High temperatures in the CWA will max out in the Brush
Country and the Rio Grande Plains, where the probability of
exceeding 95F ranges from 30% to 50%. The only limiting factor
will be how quickly the morning cloud deck mixes out. Along the
coast, relatively cooler near-shore sea temps will still keep
coastal zones in the 70s. Overnight lows will struggle to drop
below the mid 60s through Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through early next
week

- Cold front mid-week next week

Warm and dry conditions will continue through early next week with
above normal temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s daily.
A cold front will attempt to make it`s way into the region this
weekend, but all indications point to the front stalling north of
South Texas. Our next best chance to break this weather pattern will
be mid-week next week. Models are in decent agreement showing a cold
front pushing across the region which will lead to low rain chances
across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. If the mid-week front stays on track, highs
late next week could only top out in the 60s with lows dropping into
the 40s and 50s. Significantly drier air will filter in the wake of
the front most likely leading to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Partly cloudy skies are expected to transition back to mostly
cloudy conditions overnight bringing MVFR to IFR CIGs. Some sites
(VCT) could briefly see some periods of LIFR during Saturday
morning though this will remain to be seen. Sea fog is expected to
develop once again this evening and push onshore during the
overnight period. This could affect some of the eastern terminals
dropping VSBYs to MVFR and IFR around daybreak through midmorning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 10 AM Saturday for
the bays and nearshore waters of the Middle Texas Coast. Weak to
moderate southerly flow is expected to continue through Wednesday
with winds shifting to the northeast strengthening moderate to
strong levels Wednesday night, most likely resulting in Small
Craft Advisory conditions. Low rain chances will re-enter the
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Although above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
for much of this week, winds and relative humidity values are not
anticipated to reach critical thresholds. Moisture increases by mid-
week next week with the passage of our next cold front. The best
chance for showers next week looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday
across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Significantly
drier air will filter into the region late next week possible
leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Until then,
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  83  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          65  83  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            67  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             64  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          64  77  64  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           67  92  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        65  86  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  74  65  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...NP/92