762
FXUS64 KCRP 302318
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
618 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Monday.

- High risk of rip currents continues tonight, becoming a
moderate risk on Monday.

- Newly formed Tropical Depression Three in the southern Gulf of
  Mexico with no direct impacts expected for S TX.

Mid and upper level high pressure currently draped across the
southern U.S., will continue to meander across the region through
Monday, which will steer newly formed Tropical Depression 3,
currently over the Bay of Campeche, toward Mexico late tonight.

Although we are not expecting direct impacts from this system, there
is an indirect impact with higher swells moving into the Texas
Coastal Waters. Swell periods have already increased to around 9
seconds at buoy019 and 8 seconds at buoy020. Seas have increased
to around 7ft across the offshore waters. Occasionally seas may be
as high as 9ft. There is a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal
waters from 20-60NM through 11 PM due to the seas. Conditions are
expected to improve after midnight. However, there is a low
(5-15%) chance that the seas may remain at or above 7 feet through
the night and the Advisory may need to be extended through Monday
morning.

In addition, the long period swells will maintain a high risk of rip
currents through tonight into early Monday morning. The tide levels
may also rise to around 1 foot above normal. However, the
astronomical tide levels are relatively low, thus the water is not
expected to reach the dunes at high tide. Will continue to monitor
trends to see if the swells increase higher than 9 seconds or last
longer than expected, which may lead to higher tide levels and
potentially increase the chance of minor coastal flooding
overnight. Currently, confidence is low (5-10%) that minor
coastal flooding will occur.

As for weather across S TX, isolated to scattered showers continue
to move west across the area this afternoon. The convection is
expected to wane this evening as a mid level inverted tropical wave
exits the area to the west. High pressure and slightly drier air
will move across S TX through tonight, keeping rain chances low
(<10%) through Monday and Monday night.

With the slightly drier air and less cloud cover, Monday`s high
temperatures will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today. But, dewpoints
will also be a tad lower, keeping the heat index between 105-109
across most of S TX, with a few locations around 110-113 briefly in
the afternoon. Could see hazy conditions Monday as Saharan dust
works its way into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Key Message:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday,
  becoming moderate to major by mid week

Synopsis The synoptic pattern has not changed much since the last
model run. Initially, a mid-level high is centered around ARK/LA/TX
with a trough dropping down out of the Pacific Northwest. Models are
now indicating the trough will nudge the high further to the east,
which will have an impact on the path of any tropical systems in the
Gulf. Heat indices will increase significantly as temperatures rise,
leading to minor to moderate heat-related impacts on Tuesday,
escalating to moderate to major impacts from Wednesday onward.

(Tuesday through Thursday) Initially, a mid-level high pressure
system centered around Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas will dominate
the weather pattern. This high pressure has been keeping South Texas
relatively quiet. However, model guidance indicates that a trough
dropping out of the Pacific Northwest will eventually nudge this
high-pressure system further east.

(Thursday) Independence Day, the 500 mb ridge stretching from New
Mexico to the Atlantic shore will continue to suppress precipitation
across the region and increase heat indices. Expect surface high
temperatures to range from 100-105F in the Brush Country and 95-
100F across the Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal
Plains and around 90 near the coast. Heat indices will generally top
out around 105-109 across the region with some locales in the
Coastal Bend and northern Brush Country to top 110.

(Friday and Saturday) By Friday, the 500 mb shortwave trough moving
through the Northern Rockies will begin to drop into the Central and
Southern Plains, pushing the ridge eastward. This will bring some
relief from the intense heat as high temperatures start to decrease.
Increased moisture from the east will raise precipitable water
values (PWATs) from 1.6 inches to just around 1.8 inches according
to the GEF`s ensemble mean. This increase in moisture, coupled with
the eastward shift of the ridge, will help reduce heat indices from
heat advisory levels, although temperatures will remain high.

(Sunday) Looking ahead to the weekend, attention turns to Tropical
Storm Beryl. Current models show considerable uncertainty regarding
its path. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and EURO indicate a
potential northerly turn towards the Texas coast after entering the
Bay of Campeche. However, confidence in this forecast is low due to
the long-range nature (144 hours out) and variability in the
synoptic pattern.

If Beryl takes a more southerly track, it could impact Mexico, but
there remains a possibility of a turn towards the Gulf Coast States.
Given the storm is still 6-7 days out, it is crucial to monitor
trends closely. Residents should stay tuned for further updates and
ensure they are prepared for hurricane season before any potential
storm threatens the Middle Texas Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR CIGs are expected to prevail through a majority of the TAF
period. Brief showers or thunderstorms early this evening could
lead to lower CIGs/VSBYs. This mainly applies for LRD with a few
showers possible at ALI. Overnight into early Monday morning,
brief periods of MVFR CIGs and/or VSBYs will be possible due to
patchy fog in ALI, CRP, and VCT. East-southeast winds remain
elevated this evening but will transition to become light and
variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the
work week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 11 PM CDT
tonight, due to seas around 7 feet and occasionally as high as 9
feet across the offshore waters. This is in response to newly
formed Tropical Depression Three across the southern Gulf of
Mexico. This system is expected to move generally west into
Mexico. Conditions are expected to improve after midnight.
However, there is a low (5-15%) chance that the seas may remain at
or above 7 feet through the night and the Advisory may need to be
extended into Monday morning. Weak southwesterly flow Tuesday
returns to weak to moderate onshore flow Tuesday night and
persists through the end of the week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible towards the end of the week along
with an increase in swells and wind waves but will greatly depend
on the presence and location of any tropical systems in the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  77  95 /  10  10   0   0
Victoria          77  97  77  97 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            77  99  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             77  99  75 100 /  10  10   0   0
Rockport          83  94  80  95 /  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           78 102  77 104 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  97  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  92  81  92 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98