399
FXUS64 KCRP 191111
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
611 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Doing Easter egg activities outside today? We`re looking at yet
another breezy day across South Texas. Wind gusts are forecast to
be in the 35-40 mph range, so confidence is low that we`ll see
many gusts exceeding 40 mph and thus no Wind Advisory issuance
this morning. This is all thanks to surface low pressure
development near the Texas Panhandle. 00Z Sat Apr 19 surface
observations show the low pressure system forming along a slow
moving frontal boundary draped from the Red River Valley to
eastern New Mexico. To the south, a dry line is currently analyzed
down into the higher terrain of the northern Mexican states. In
this warm, humid sector advecting this muggy airmass into Central
Texas, a few showers and weak thunderstorms have formed in the Rio
Grande Plains and moving to the northeast, weakening as they do
so. This will end near sunrise, giving way for a warm and breezy
day today. This afternoon, PoPs increase to 10-20% in the northern
Brush Country, but most of today`s shower and thunderstorm
activity will remain confined to the Hill Country.

By early Sunday morning, the slow-moving cold front finally will
start pushing into the Rio Grande Plains, increasing PoPs to
near medium chances (30-50% chance). With highs only climbing into
the 80s and low 90s thanks to the increased cloud coverage,
showers will continue to increase in spatial coverage across
South Texas. Though not a complete washout in the morning, those
attending Easter Day celebrations before the early afternoon may
still want to bring an umbrella. By Sunday afternoon, a sea-breeze
will move inland, meeting up with the crawling "cold" front. The
intersection of converging boundaries will be the axis of where
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be in the
afternoon and evening hours. Where these showers form, a quick
couple of tenths of precipitation may fall. The threat for severe
weather with these storms will be low, with gusty winds being the
primary concern in stronger thunderstorms.

*Rip Current/Coastal Flooding: Increasing southeasterly swell
 (3-5ft) and periods (8-9 seconds) thanks to a persistent
 southeasterly onshore flow will lead to a high rip current risk
 through Sunday. With respect to coastal flooding today, so far
 the observed tides have been running around 0.3 ft above the
 predicted tide, so translating this to high tide around noon
 today, this would place the water level at 1 ft above MSL. Though
 not quite meeting the threshold for coastal flooding, if this
 morning`s swell transfers more energy at high tide, the water
 level may get closer to the 1.8 ft MSL threshold. I will hold off
 on issuing any Coastal Flooding headlines. We will ask the day
 shift to carefully monitor Gulf-facing beach cameras and update
 as deemed necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Daily low to medium rain chances through at least mid-week

Low to medium rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) will remain in
the forecast Sunday night into Monday as above normal moisture
lingers over the area. After a quick dry out period Monday night,
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will re-enter the forecast
beginning Tuesday owing to the combination of ample moisture (PWATs
above 1.6") and several passing disturbances aloft. PoPs will be at
around 40-60% Tuesday through Wednesday, before gradually decreasing
to only a slight chance (<25%) by late week. Current forecast
rainfall accumulations are in the 0.5-1.5" range through the entire
Extended period, with the highest amounts expected over the eastern
half of the CWA early to mid week. Temperatures will be above normal
all week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas of haze have developed overnight across the Coastal Bend,
reducing visibilities down to 5SM with MVFR conditions also
brought on by low ceilings below 2K ft. These will continue
through sunrise, with all terminals improving to VFR by early
afternoon. Winds will still be out of the SE at 15-25 kt gusting
up at 35 kt. Overnight, lowering ceilings will again bring MVFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Moderate to fresh onshore flow (BF 4-5) will keep wave heights
between 5 to 7 ft and choppy over the bays. By Sunday, onshore
flow weakens to a moderate breeze (BF 4). A moderate breeze (BF
4) will continue Sunday decreasing to light to gentle (BF 2-3)
Sunday night into Monday before increasing back to moderate levels
(BF 4) by Tuesday. Medium rain chances (35-60%) can be expected
Sunday into Sunday night, with low to medium rain chances (20-40%)
then expected daily through at least mid-week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today, surface moisture moving in from the Gulf will keep
minimum relative humidity values generally above 30% across South
Texas. With the frontal passage on Sunday, surface moisture gets
pushed to the southeast with a drier airmass moving in from the
west throughout the day. Minimum relative humidity values drop to
as low as 15-30% across the Rio Grande Plains by Sunday afternoon.
20 ft winds will generally be under 20 mph, so this will limit
the fire risk to slightly elevated conditions for this region

Moisture will increase across South Texas early this week, with low
to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances returning to the
forecast daily through mid-week. Drier conditions will develop late
week, with rain chances diminishing to less than 20% by Friday.
However, RH values will remain above thresholds with no Elevated or
Critical fire weather concerns expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  71  85  69 /  10   0  70  40
Victoria          85  70  86  66 /  10   0  70  50
Laredo            94  71  88  68 /  10  20  30  10
Alice             89  69  87  67 /  10   0  60  30
Rockport          85  72  85  70 /   0   0  70  40
Cotulla           93  71  88  65 /  10  30  50  10
Kingsville        86  70  85  68 /  10   0  70  30
Navy Corpus       78  72  81  71 /   0   0  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...AE/82