Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
505 FXUS64 KCRP 101128 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Weak mid-level Gulf disturbance will bring a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, mainly over the waters and Victoria Crossroads. - Daily low rain chances (10-30%) following Monday for morning showers over the waters and the afternoon seabreeze into the inland Coastal Plains. - Hot conditions continue with minor to moderate heat risk through the middle of the week worsening to moderate to major late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Early this morning, South Texas will be influenced under the eastern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge positioned over the Desert Southwest, keeping most locations dry. Later this morning into the afternoon, a weak inverted trough or mid-level low drifting in from the Gulf will draw in slightly deeper moisture (~2.00" PWAT) and provide subtle lift. This will allow for a better chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly over the waters then spreading inland with the seabreeze during the afternoon and early evening hours. Greatest confidence over the Victoria Crossroads region. Moisture and weak disturbances will linger into midweek, while the region sites between two high pressure systems: one to the west and another over Florida edging to the eastern Gulf. This setup will keep low rain chances (10-30%) in place most afternoons, primarily driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze. Heat indices will generally range from 100-109 through midweek. By late week, some areas across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country will flirt up to 110-112, causing increasing concern for Advisory level conditions. Heat impacts will largely remain minor to moderate through Thursday, before increasing to moderate to major late in the week. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the southern Rio Grande Plains with afternoon relative humidity briefly dropping below 30% and above-normal Energy Release Component (ERC) values, though winds should stay below critical thresholds. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue for most of the period. There is a low chance of some patchy fog developing over the inland Coastal Plains, specifically for ALI. Because of this, a brief TEMPO group has been added since fog has been a consistent issue there these last several mornings. The more significant weather concern is the potential for precipitation. A weak, inverted low-pressure trough moving in from the Gulf will bring in more moisture and provide some atmospheric lift. This will lead to a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms developing over the inland Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads. -SHRA and -TSRA activity is already developing over area waters and along the coast this morning. This activity will push inland by late morning and into the afternoon. As a result, PROB30 groups for -TSRA has been included for VCT/CRP/ALI. Expect stronger wind gusts and reduced VSBYs in the immediate vicinity of any storms. The chance of precipitation will decrease by the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow is expected during the overnight hours, increasing to a gentle to moderate (BF 3- 4) breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Wednesday. Generally gentle to moderate flow will then persist beginning Wednesday night. Low rain chances (20-40%) will persist through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 0 Victoria 95 74 96 74 / 40 10 40 10 Laredo 103 77 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 97 74 98 74 / 20 10 30 10 Rockport 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 Cotulla 101 76 101 77 / 10 0 10 10 Kingsville 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 80 90 80 / 20 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...KRS/98