539
WTPA43 PHFO 101437
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

Henriette has intensified significantly overnight.  Satellite
images show the formation of inner-core features, with recent
microwave data from SSMIS showing what appears to be the early
stages of a broken eyewall.  Intensity estimates have risen,
ranging from 35 to 55 kt.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt,
on the higher side of the range given recent satellite trends.

Despite the marginal water temperatures, further strengthening is
expected.  Wind shear is forecast to drop to less than 10 kt by
tonight, along with a small increase in SSTs and cooling
upper-level temperatures.  Given the inner-core structure present
on microwave and the forecast environment, Henriette is likely to
become a hurricane by tomorrow.  This forecast is higher than the
last advisory and the model consensus, though not as high as the
HAFS models.  Increasing shear and cooling waters in a few days
should cause weakening, and Henriette should dissipate in roughly
4-5 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 14 kt.  The track
forecast of Henriette seems to be straightforward.  A large ridge
over the north-central Pacific should cause a continued fast
northwestward track for several days until its slows down a bit
near dissipation.  Model guidance is generally west of the last
cycle, and the new forecast follows that trend, between the old NHC
forecast and the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 24.7N 151.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 26.1N 153.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 28.2N 155.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 30.3N 158.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 32.4N 160.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 34.3N 163.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 36.0N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 39.0N 169.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake