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Water Supply Outlook                                           January 7, 2025


ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

Snowfall during the fall and early winter season has been fairly normal across the
Arkansas River Basin. The Canadian River Basin has seen below normal snowfall, but
above normal rainfall for the Water Year, so far. At the end of December, snowpack
conditions were above normal along the upper reaches of the Arkansas River, but below
normal across Southern Colorado. The snowpack is significantly below normal in the
Canadian Basin.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 91 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 95 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 74, 92, and
88 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 100 percent-
of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 71 percent-
of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 66 and 65 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 61 and 67 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is slightly above median, overall. Reports range from 86 percent-of-
median at Whiskey Creek to 163 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above
Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is above normal with 126 percent-of-
median. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 71 percent-of-median. In
the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 46 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is above normal. Reports range from
108 percent-of-median at North Costilla to 148 percent-of-median at Tolby. The
snowpack in the Canadian River basin is well below normal at 52 percent-of-median.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 113 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 95 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs
are at 101 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 108 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for January through March calls for equal chances
of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the Arkansas Basin, while the
Canadian Basin has an increased chance for above normal temperatures. The outlook calls
for increased chances for below normal precipitation across Colorado and New Mexico.


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