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Water Supply Outlook                                           March 4, 2025


ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

Snowfall across the Upper Arkansas River Basin was near to slightly below normal
during February. The Sangre De Cristo Mountains in Southern Colorado and the Canadian
River Basin in New Mexico saw much below normal snowfall in February. At the end of
February, snowpack conditions were near normal along the upper reaches of the Arkansas
River, but significantly below normal across Southern Colorado. The snowpack is also
significantly below normal in the Canadian Basin in New Mexico.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 90 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 87 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 60,
68, and 61 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide
96 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to
be 71 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 47 and 47 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 41 and 49 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-February) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is near median, overall. Reports range from 68 percent-of-median at
South Colony to 137 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as
measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is near normal at 96 percent-of-median. Snowpack
in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 50 percent-of-median. In the Purgatoire River
basin, the snow pack is at 46 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is near normal. Reports range from
84 percent-of-median at Palo to 107 percent-of-median at Tolby. Unfortunately, the
snowpack in the Canadian River basin is well below normal at 23 percent-of-median.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 114 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 98 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs
are at 102 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 109 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for March through May calls for slightly
increased chances of above normal temperatures in the Arkansas Basin, while the
Canadian Basin has more of an increased chance for above normal temperatures. The
outlook calls for increased chances for below normal precipitation across Colorado
and especially in New Mexico.


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