793
FXUS61 KCLE 081612
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1112 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering troughing persists across the Great Lakes region
through tonight before high pressure builds overhead on
Thursday. Low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes region on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow shower activity continues across much of the area this
morning with moisture connection to the upstream lakes. Have
seen several good bursts of snow moving across North Central
Ohio. Have raised pops both for the lingering snow this morning
and for later this afternoon into this evening as the upper
level trough axis pivots south. This brings an increase in
moisture depth, particularly across Northwest and North Central
Ohio along with some moisture off Lake Michigan. In addition we
see steepening low level lapse rates within the dendritic growth
zone. Have raised accumulations heading into tonight given high
snow to liquid ratios and an opportunity for some efficient
snow showers.

6:50 AM Update...
Minor changes made to PoPs as an area of convergence along the
lakeshore has allowed for some light snow showers early this
morning extending from Port Clinton to Lorain to Ravenna. Area
webcams show some minor accumulations on roadways across
northern Ohio counties.

Previous discussion...
Continued NW flow across the Great Lakes region will allow for lake
effect snow showers to prevail through much of the near term
period. Persistent lake effect snow bands due to an upstream
Lake Huron connection will allow for additional accumulating
snowfall between 3 and 6 inches through Thursday morning across
Northwest Pennsylvania where a Winter Weather Advisory remains
in place. Elsewhere, generally light accumulations less than 1
inch expected through the today.

By this evening, an upper level shortwave sags south across the
Lower Great Lakes region, increasing coverage and intensity of lake
effect showers. There continues to be a signal for lake effect snow
streaming into portions of Northwest Ohio from Lake Michigan this
afternoon into early Thursday morning. However, accumulations will
likely remain less than 1 inch. Snow showers will gradually diminish
on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.

High temperatures today in the low to mid 20s with the potential for
wind chills in the single digits across portions of Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania today. Chilly tonight as lows dip into the
low teens areawide and wind chill values drop near-zero early
Thursday morning. High temperatures in the low 20s for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A northern stream and southern stream 500mb trough axis will merge
over the central portion of the CONUS creating an elongated feature
extending from Canada into the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. 500mb
ridging Thursday night will give way to southwest flow aloft, with
PVA embedded within and ahead of the trough axis for Friday into
Friday night. After 21Z Friday, start seeing enough vertical motion
in the dendrite growth zone and the saturation of the lower levels
of the atmosphere for snow to begin. Have a fairly deep layer of
favorable humidity values in the column for snow, but ultimately,
the lift in the -12 to -18C layer is less than impressive, and is
generally in the 700-600mb layer at the onset. This will come down
slightly into Saturday night, but again, the vertical motion is on
the modest side. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, cannot get
any consistent lift from the surface up past 850mb, contributing to
the overall imperfections of this setup. Now that said, this is
definitely an area wide snowfall event for the CWA that should last
a few hours, but this largely going to end up a 2-3 or perhaps a 2-4
type event by the time the upper trough exits and the surface cold
front has pushed through late Friday night/Saturday.

Temperatures mainly in the lower to upper 20s Friday and mid 20s to
lower 30s Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Likely will see a post cold frontal lake effect snow setup for the
remainder of the weekend, ending Sunday/Sunday night with ridging
aloft and low level warm air advection occurring. Upper low will re-
assert itself over James Bay into early next week, and an Alberta
Clipper system looks to drop into the Great Lakes early next week
within a lobe of the cyclonic flow aloft. After a day of
temperatures that just might eclipse the freezing mark in isolated
locations Sunday, once the clipper passes early next week, will be
headed back down in terms of temperatures into midweek as this cold
January presses on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A mix of primarily VFR and MVFR ceilings this morning with MVFR
and IFR visibilities in light snow showers. Still anticipate
for snow showers to increase in coverage later this afternoon
and evening due to increased moisture streaming off of Lake
Michigan. This may bring reductions in vis/cig to western
terminals (TOL, FDY, MFD). Elsewhere across the primary and
secondary snowbelt, periodic lake effect snow showers will
persist through this evening and overnight. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the region on Thursday which will diminish
any lingering lake effect showers towards the end of the TAF
window.

Westerly to northwesterly winds 5-10 knots continue through the
TAF period, with locally higher northwesterly winds 10-15 knots
and gusts 20-25 knots at ERI. Gusts should diminish at ERI by
early this evening.

Outlook... Widespread lake effect snow showers with non-VFR
conditions possible today into the overnight hours. Non-VFR
possible Friday into Saturday areawide in snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds 10-20kts in the western basin of Lake Erie and 15-
25kts in the central and eastern basins persist through late
Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory from Avon Point east to Ripley NY
continues during this time with wave heights 3-5ft. Winds then
become southwesterly/offshore 10-20kts early Friday through Friday
night ahead of the next cold front that will come through late
Friday night/early Saturday. Wave heights nearshore less than 2ft,
but increasing in the open waters to 2-4ft. Winds become
northwesterly again at this point 15-25kts through Sunday..

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Thursday night for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...KEC/Iverson
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...26