075
FXUS61 KCLE 081842
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
242 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will gradually lift north on Wednesday as low
pressure moves northeast through the Great Lakes, extending a cold
front through the area on Thursday. This cold front will stall and
linger near the Lower Great Lakes into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening,
particularly across Northwest Ohio where a couple of stronger
storms are possible.

For the rest of today, weak high pressure is resulting in mostly
sunny and seasonable temperatures. No precipitation is expected
through this evening, though some pockets of dense fog are
possible across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
overnight. Otherwise, a weak mid- level shortwave is currently
located across southern IA/northern MO. This feature will gradually
move east towards the Lower Great Lakes into Wednesday, providing
mesoscale enhancement, in addition to weak upper- level forcing
from a passing trough. The latest HREF indicates mostly scattered
coverage of showers and storms across portions of Southeast MI
and Northwest OH Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment
is suggestive of modest downburst potential across Northwest
Ohio, with values behind the DCAPE gradient around 800 to 900
J/kg and low-level lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km. Bulk shear
values around 20 to 25 knots could also support a few organized
thunderstorm clusters. This potential is reflected in the most
recent SPC SWODY2 marginal risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Periods of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible for the short term period, with the highest
coverage found along a cold front across the southeast portion
of the area on Thursday. Shower and storm chances appear less
likely, or at least more isolated, on Friday in the wake of the
cold front and as weak high pressure attempts to build south
through the Great Lakes. Mainly seasonable to slightly above-
average temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices may begin to
approach the lower 90s by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather appears to continue for the weekend and perhaps
even into early next week as a stronger upper-level trough moves
east through the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday,
extending a cold front across the area. The latest guidance
suggests the potential for perhaps some organized convection on
Saturday with the trough passage, although uncertainty remains
on the timing of the cold front. Depending on the timing of the
cold front, Sunday could either feature additional chances for
showers and storms, particularly across the southeast portion
of the area, or favor dry weather as high pressure attempts to
build behind the front. However, the brief respite in the active
pattern does not appear to remain as modest westerly flow
returns across the Great Lakes region, on the northern periphery
of a building ridge to the south.

The hottest day of the long term period is expected to be
Saturday with heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s
prior to any shower and storm development later in the day.
Slightly above-average temperatures are then expected to
persist for Sunday and beyond with highs in the mid to upper
80s. Heat indices may approach the lower 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Generally expect VFR conditions with scattered diurnal cumulus
through this afternoon and mostly clear skies tonight. There
may be some patchy fog and lower stratus across interior eastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania overnight, but as of now it
appears that the majority of the fog/stratus will be to the
southeast of TAF sites. Additional diurnal cumulus will develop
by Wednesday afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms will
likely begin to develop across NW OH towards the end of the TAF
period. With that being said, confidence in the placement,
coverage, and overall likelihood of thunderstorms prior to 18Z
is quite low so have omitted thunderstorms from the TAFs with
this update.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at about 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight.
South/southwest winds will develop and increase to 5 to 10 knots
late Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday with the best chance
during the afternoon each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall, good marine conditions are anticipated over the next
several days. Winds will generally be southerly at around 10
knots or less through Wednesday before briefly shifting to the
northwest behind a cold front Thursday. A period of onshore flow
due to a lake breeze is likely on Wednesday afternoon. Variable
and relatively light winds in addition to periods of onshore
flow due to daily lake breezes are favored Thursday afternoon
through Friday with winds becoming more south/southwesterly and
increasing to around 10 knots on Saturday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible on the lake
Wednesday through the weekend, best chance during the afternoon
and early evening each day. Winds and waves could be higher in
thunderstorms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15