767
FXUS61 KCLE 161742
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
142 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and persists for
Thursday. Low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes on Friday,
lifting a warm front through the region. This is quickly
followed by a cold front Friday night or early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12:20 PM Update...
Clouds continue to hang on, but seeing notable clear in and
around Toledo, that should expand elsewhere through the rest of
the afternoon. The expectation is that everybody see at least
some sunshine through mid to late afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Lake enhanced rain/snow showers lingering mainly across
Northwest PA (with some sprinkles/flurries in far Northeast OH)
will gradually end from west to east through early this
afternoon as troughing gradually exits east and high pressure
gradually approaches from the west. High pressure takes control
for tonight and Thursday, leading to quiet, mainly clear, and
somewhat chilly weather. High-level clouds begin moving in from
the west by Thursday evening. Highs today will range from the
upper 30s and lower 40s in Northwest PA to the low to mid 50s
along the I-75 corridor. Frosty lows tonight will range from the
upper 20s to low to mid 30s, with a bit of patchy valley fog
possible early Thursday morning. Highs Thursday will range from
the 50s to near 60 in Northwest PA to the low to mid 60s in OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will move through the forecast area on Thursday night,
as some mid-level energy will undercut the effectiveness of an upper
ridge. This front will bring some rain on Thursday night and have
some chance PoPs cascading through the area. For Friday, the
forecast area will be solidly in the warm sector of a low pressure
system. Some subsidence aloft should actually allow for some breaks
in the clouds and efficient heating and temperatures should surge
well into the 70s for much of the area. An approaching upper trough
will push the upper ridge south and support a low pressure system
through the Great Lakes on Friday night. This system will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through the forecast
area on Friday night, as an associated cold front is extended
eastward. The main question will be if these storms will have any
bite to them or not. The air mass ahead of the front will be fairly
unstable given the likelihood of 70+ degree highs. However, the
timing will be unfavorable as the atmosphere will begin stabilizing
after dark. However, the low level jet will be ramping up ahead of
the cold front and could offset some of the reduced instability.
Therefore, Friday night will be a period to watch for some stronger
convection with damaging winds being the main threat at this time.
The cold front will continue southeast across the forecast area on
Saturday, but it will be slow to cross the area. Therefore, have
PoPs slowly decreasing through Saturday and it remains possible that
the front stalls out overhead and allows for a continued scattered
shower and storm threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next low pressure system in the series will enter the region for
early next week. However, there remains some spread among the models
on the strength of the upper level trough that will support this
system. A stronger upper trough will allow for the upper trough to
become more negatively tilted and pull the low further west,
delaying the bulk of the active weather and rain into Sunday night
or Monday. Whereas, a weaker upper trough will allow for the surface
low to be weaker and move quicker into the area and allow for most
of the rain to be on Sunday. Given the spread, the NBM is handling
the first half of the period with chance PoPs and will leave those
as is. For Monday night into Tuesday, the main system departs but
colder air filtering into the region with some troughing could allow
for some residual rain over the area and have kept some low PoPs. It
is possible that the cold front will swing through with the passage
of the main low pressure system and just cool the area off with no
residual precipitation. Will opt for some low PoPs to highlight the
potential before high pressure builds in for the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Clouds with MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the area,
though a drier airmass associated with high pressure continues
to build in this afternoon and tonight from the northwest, with
clouds expected to scatter out through this afternoon, with
clear skies expected tonight through the end of the TAf period.
Northwest winds this afternoon averaging around 10 knots
dissipating to light and variable tonight, becoming southerly
during the day Thursday.

Outlook...Isolated non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday
morning. More widespread non-VFR likely with some thunderstorms
possible Friday night Saturday, followed by periods of non-VFR
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough across the region with high pressure building from the west
will continue to promote an enhanced pressure gradient and west to
northwest winds in the 15 to 25 kt range. Therefore, will keep the
Small Craft Advisories going as is this morning. High pressure
building into the area will allow for winds to subside through the
day and waves will respond and expect the headlines to be gone by
evening. A warm front will approach the lake for Thursday and
promote some elevated easterly winds before the front lifts north of
the lake and offshore flow takes over. The warm sector of the warm
front should be pretty efficient, even over the cold lake, and
strong southwest winds may necessitate another Small Craft Advisory
headline. Showers and storms will develop ahead of a cold front for
Friday night and these storms could enter over Lake Erie, especially
the western basin, and bring some strong winds to the region. The
cold front will cross the lake on Saturday and onshore flow will be
favored with waves increasing. The front will stall out south of the
lake and will be lifted near or over the lake on Sunday and winds
will become more easterly before flipping offshore.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ144>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic