402
FXUS61 KCLE 061306
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
906 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push east this morning as a brief high
pressure builds across the area from the west. On Monday,
another low pressure moves into the region, bringing a strong
cold front east Monday afternoon. A surface trough lingers on
Tuesday before high pressure returns for mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 AM Update...
We increased POPs a little from what was in the previous
forecast from now through 00z this evening. Temperatures are in
the middle to upper 30s this morning and will not change much
today. Scattered light rain showers will continue during the day
with some ice pellets or wet snow flakes mixing in from time to
time.

630 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures this morning as
much of the area remained a bit warmer than previously forecast.
Still expecting a huge cool down today with highs hard pressed
to get out of the 30s. There remains a small chance of some
light showers persisting across the southeastern counties today
with some snowflakes mixing in, but these all should remain
really light and have little to no impacts. With the diminishing
precipitation chances and very low QPF expected for the showers
that do occur, have opted to drop the Flood Watch with this
update. A couple Flood Advisories along with River Flood
Warnings remain in effect this morning, but expecting those
conditions to improve today and not become any worse given the
drying trend.

Previous Discussion...
This morning, some lingering light rain showers continue to
impact portions of the area, especially across the southern and
eastern counties. These light showers should gradually diminish
as a surface high pushes east today as a drier and colder airmass
arrives. Weak support across the southeastern counties will
allow for a non-zero chance of light showers into this evening,
however confidence is low. If any showers develop, overall
impact will remain minimal with light rates expected. As colder
upper level temperatures arrive this afternoon, some of these
showers could see some snow flakes mixing in with them,
although not much should stick. Highs today will be much cooler,
only climbing into the upper 30s with the exception of far
northwest Ohio which may still climb into the low 40s. Overnight
lows will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. These falling
temperatures will pose a risk to any vegetation that has already
bloomed this spring.

On Monday, another low pressure system will move northeast
through the Great Lakes region, ultimately moving a strong cold
front east Monday afternoon. The positioning of this low will
initially allow for a warming trend in temperatures with highs
climbing into the 40s, but as the cold front pushes east,
temperatures will quickly fall into the mid 30s by Monday
evening. A strong temperature gradient will become established
across the area allowing for gusty winds of 15-20 mph, gusting
up to 25-30 mph. This may result in wind chill values dropping
into the upper 20s. In conjunction with the surface low, a
vort max pushing across the area will allow for support for
showers to again become widespread, especially across the
northern counties where the strongest support will be present.
Much of this precipitation should begin as rain, but expect a
transition towards snow Monday evening. Depending on the
transition time, cannot rule out some sleet mixing in, but
overall snowfall totals will remain minimal within this near
term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes in a post cold front
cold pool environment for the CWA. 20-25 degrees below normal for
Tuesday, and scattered snow showers will continue with a trailing
surface and upper level trough from Monday night through early
Tuesday. 850mb temperatures down into the mid minus teens as cold
Canadian high pressure settles into the lower Great Lakes. Snow
amounts should be an inch or less, but most places will see a
coating or less. Winds gusting 20-30mph late Monday into early
Tuesday contributing to the raw feel. NW PA zones may not get above
freezing on Tuesday, but further west towards the I-75 corridor, low
40s are possible. Cold for April Tuesday night back down into the
upper teens to mid 20s, but a better temperature rebound for
Wednesday in airmass modification with widespread 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another quick moving but weaker area of low pressure tracks through
the Wednesday night through Thursday. Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.50
inches and a brief reinforcement to cooler air that will be felt in
the wake of the system on Friday. High pressure, drying, and a
gradual warming trend for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
morning as high pressure slowly pushes east and showers continue
to slowly drift east out of the area. The primary driver of
these diminished conditions, especially the IFR/LIFR conditions
are ceilings below 1kft. Lingering showers are only reducing
visibilities to 4SM or more this morning. All conditions are
expected to improve through the morning hours to eventually
become widespread VFR by late morning/early afternoon. High
clouds will linger with heights 5-10kft. These improved
conditions will persist for most terminals through the period.
The exception is KCAK, KYNG, and possible KMFD where light winds
overnight and lingering low level moisture may result in patchy
fog tonight. Opted to only include at KCAK and KYNG with this
update as confidence is higher at these terminals.

North to northwest winds of 10-15 knots, gusting up to 20-25
knots have moved into the area this morning. These enhanced
winds should not last long after sunrise. General thoughts are
that after 15Z winds from the north to northeast will weaken to
5-10 knots with limited gusts. These winds will persist until
sunset tonight when they will become light and variable across
the entire area.

Outlook...Additional non-VFR conditions possible in rain and
snow showers Monday afternoon and then mainly in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Brief Small Craft Advisory in effect this morning for northerly
winds 20kts in the central basin of Lake Erie. Winds become light
and variable later today into early tonight as wave heights
decrease. A strong cold front comes across the lake Monday with
northwest winds behind it 20-25kts. Another Small Craft Advisory is
likely into early Tuesday. Winds ease to 10kts out of the west
northwest Tuesday night. Southeast/southerly winds 10-15kts
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/77
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26