434
FXUS61 KCLE 170046
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
846 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track northeast across the Great Lakes
tonight, extending a cold front east through the area on
Saturday. High pressure will build across the region on Sunday and
persist into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Last remaining portion of the first round of thunderstorms is
exiting Crawford County, PA, allowing for a lull in the action
across the forecast area. Awaiting convection approaching the
state line where active warnings are ongoing and a wind gust of
57 kts was measured at Fort Wayne.

Relevant Portions of the Previous Discussion...
Attention then turns towards this evening, where current
satellite imagery reveals a strong convective complex taking
shape across eastern MO and southwest IL this afternoon. The
environment ahead of this complex is extremely favorable for
damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Hires models differ on if this complex can sustain its strength
as it continues northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region by
later this evening. If it does, anticipate damaging wind gusts
to arrive across the I-75 corridor by around 9 PM, with perhaps
some isolated instances of significant wind gusts exceeding 70
mph possible. This complex should weaken as it moves east and
encounters a less favorable environment near the I-71/77
corridors by around 11 PM to midnight.

A cold front will sweep east through the area Saturday morning
and afternoon, ushering in a significant pattern change across
the region. Could see some redevelopment along the cold front,
particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor early Saturday
afternoon, though not anticipating any severe storms at this
time. It may feel a bit blustery Saturday afternoon behind the
front, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and westerly
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Drier air will continue to filter into the region Sunday as the
closed mid/upper low drifts east through the New England states
allowing strong surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay to
build ridging southward into the Lower Great Lakes. A few isolated
showers and overcast skies could linger in far NE Ohio and NW PA
Sunday morning before the increased ridging allows for mostly sunny
and dry conditions areawide by afternoon. Despite the sunshine,
temperatures will be unseasonably cool as mid/upper troughing
remains across the Great Lakes, with highs only in the upper 50s to
low 60s in far NE Ohio and NW PA and mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
The surface ridge and trough aloft will continue through Monday, so
unfortunately for those wanting a warm up, temperatures will remain
cool for awhile. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper
50s to low 60s again in far NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 60s
elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s,
with more widespread 40s possible Monday night depending on how
quickly clouds and scattered showers can start to creep
northeastward ahead of another closed low in the Mid Mississippi
Valley. Patchy frost is possible in NW PA Monday night where skies
should remain clear longer, so this will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The big story of the extended will be a continuation of below normal
temperatures as an increasingly amplified pattern develops across
North America, characterized by strengthening west coast mid/upper
ridging and deepening central and eastern U.S. mid/upper troughing.
This will keep temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees below normal
Tuesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and
lows in the 40s. The cool pattern will continue beyond the 7-day
forecast into late May. The precipitation forecast Tuesday through
the end of the week is a little more uncertain due to timing
uncertainties with the aforementioned Mid Mississippi Valley closed
low ejecting across the Ohio Valley region. As mid/upper shortwave
energy drops through the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday
and deepens the longwave trough, the closed low will attempt to
phase with the trough. This will eventually result in a deep closed
low and cold pool aloft pinwheeling overhead late in the week, but
how and when it phases will determine the timing and track of the
best moisture and forcing. The overall message is that rain chances
will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with decent coverage of
showers possible mid to late week making things cool and unsettled.
Not the best news as Memorial Day Weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The airspace is VFR between two rounds of convection. The next
round of convection continues east across Indiana and into
western Ohio. The complex is a touch further south than
previously forecasted and may end up missing the KTOL area.
Otherwise, expect storms to move through the area over the next
several hours. KFDY and KMFD will have the greatest impact with
the potential for non-VFR and gusty winds with line of TS.
Storms will continue toward the other terminals this evening but
the impact should be lessened as the line weakens tonight.
Storms will clear out overnight and low VFR ceilings will remain
in the region. Another round of rain and storms could impact NE
OH/NW PA on Saturday afternoon before the system fully exits the
region. Winds on Saturday will be gusty out of the west with 30
KT gusts possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern
half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and
Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves on Lake
Erie this evening and tonight, but otherwise, the next period of
elevated winds and waves will come Saturday into Sunday as strong
cold air advection encourages good mixing. SW winds of 10-20 knots
tonight will turn WSW behind a cold front Saturday morning and
increase to 15-25 knots. This will build waves of 3 to 5 feet, so
issued Small Craft Advisories starting Saturday morning. The winds
and waves will gradually subside Saturday night, but it will take
until Sunday morning to end in the central and eastern basins, so
ran the advisories longer there. Winds will turn NW and decrease to
5-10 knots Sunday afternoon then N at 5-15 knots Sunday night and
Monday. A period of strong NE winds of 15-25 knots is possible
Monday night through midweek as a slow moving closed low approaches
from the Mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough deepens
across the Great Lakes. This will likely require another round of
Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for LEZ146-147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas