346
FXUS61 KCLE 141809
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
209 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move across the region this evening into the
overnight. High pressure will build in to the north on Wednesday and
move eastward through the end of the week. This weekend, a low
pressure system will move to the north of the region brining a cold
front through Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry, quiet weather will continue through the near term as upper
level ridging builds into the south-central CONUS. A weak cold front
will be crossing the region late tonight into Wednesday, though with
a fairly dry airmass, little to no precipitation is expected. Only
area that may see some light precipitation would be far northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, but still not expecting anything
measurable overnight. High pressure will build in to the north
behind the front starting on Wednesday.

Other forecast note for the near term would be the frost/freeze
potential for Wednesday night. As the high pressure drifts eastward,
the environmental will be conducive for radiational cooling as winds
will be light to calm. Temperatures overnight will be down into the
mid to upper 30s across the south and eastern portions of the CWA
with parts of northwest Pennsylvania potentially seeing low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather remains through the short term as the surface high
pressure builds eastward to the end the week. Similar to Wednesday
night, there will be frost/freeze potential on Thursday night. Only
difference between Wednesday and Thursday is that the high pressure
will be more directly overhead, and with clear skies and calm winds,
radiational cooling will be more effective and widespread. Areas
east of I-71 away from the lakeshore will be in the mid 30s, with
eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania down into the low 30s. Out
west, cloud cover will start to move in so it will limit how cool
the area will get, but lows will still be in the upper 30s to low
40s.

On Friday a warm front will move north across the region and there
will be a low chance for precipitation Friday evening into the
overnight. Temperatures will also start to climb back up with the
southerly flow with highs on Friday being in the mid to upper 60s
and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather is in store for the long term as an upper level
trough moves across southern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
A surface low will track to the north of the region and drag a
cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. There is high
confidence in widespread precipitation for this time period with
a few isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Though there is
some uncertainty in how the overall system develops over the
course of the weekend. Upper level ridging will build in behind
to start next week and cooler, drier weather is expected for the
majority of the region. Temperatures will be seasonally
average, or just slightly below average for the long term, with
the only exception being Saturday after the warm front with high
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Any lingering MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR early in the
TAF period as clouds continue clear this afternoon. A cold front
will continue to move southeast across the area through tonight
and mid-level clouds will likely increase just behind the front
and as high pressure builds into the region late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Despite the increased cloud cover, VFR
conditions are anticipated through 18Z Wednesday.

Winds will generally be out of the north through the TAF period,
although a period of northeast winds is likely at KTOL/KFDY
overnight. Sustained winds will be in the 6 to 12 knot range
through the majority of the TAF period, but winds at inland
terminals may trend lighter tonight into early Wednesday
morning.

Outlook...VFR expected before periods of rain showers with non-
VFR return late Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge over the lake will maintain light northeast flow for the
first half of the day. A cold front will cross the lake this
afternoon and strong northerly flow up to 20 kts will overtake
the lake through Wednesday night. Waves over the central basin
are expected to build to at least 4 ft and have issued a Small
Craft Advisory for Vermilion to Conneaut from 8 PM this evening
to 10 AM on Wednesday.

High pressure will enter behind the front for Wednesday and
Thursday and flow over the lake will decrease. High pressure
will shift east Thursday night into Friday and winds will back
to the east then southeast by Friday afternoon. A warm front
will lift north across the lake on Friday night and southerly
flow will increase for Friday night and Saturday back into the
15 to 20 kt range, as a larger low pressure system will enter
for the weekend. There is certainly potential for marine
headlines this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ145>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sefcovic