844
FXUS61 KCLE 021556
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1056 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak pressure of West Virginia this morning will merge with stronger
low pressure moving up the East Coast by midday. A ridge will expand
across the area tonight then shift southeast on Wednesday. Low
pressure near Hudson Bay will drag a cold front southeast across
the area early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10:55 AM Update:
Just a bit of light synoptic snow lingering across far Northeast
OH and Northwest PA late this morning, with snow ended across
the rest of the area. With road conditions improving
significantly, even where some snow is still ongoing, have
dropped or expired a majority of our Winter Weather Advisory.

Advisories remain in effect until 1 PM for Lorain County and
until 7 PM for Cuyahoga, Medina, Lake, Geauga, Portage,
Ashtabula, Trumbull, Erie PA and Crawford PA. These areas are
also seeing improving conditions, though as a trough pushes off
of Lake Erie into the early-mid afternoon some lake effect snow
showers will accompany it. As mentioned below, the instability
and moisture depth are not great, so the snow will not be
particularly efficient and may mix with graupel with most areas
probably not seeing more than another inch. However, with 30dBZ
radar returns showing up with the lake effect just offshore of
Cleveland some of the lake effect may be intense enough to bring
quick visibility drops and accumulations on roadways as it comes
in. While impacts may be relatively mild and localized, would
like to give the lake effect a little more opportunity to play
out before dropping any more of the advisories...so we will be
monitoring conditions into the afternoon.

Previous Discussion:
Winter weather event is ongoing across the area with light to
moderate snow continuing to fall area wide. An upper level trough
seen on water vapor imagery over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
lift northeast across Ohio through sunrise as a jet streak
races by aloft. Entrance region jet dynamics will support
increasing large scale ascent through about 9 AM on the
northwest flank of an inverted surface trough extending up the
Ohio/Pennsylvania border. Snowfall rates are expected to
increase along and south of a line from Findlay to Cleveland
with visibilities occasionally dropping below a mile in moderate
snow. Snowfall rates of a half to three quarters of an inch are
possible across mainly north central and NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania. At this time the axis of heaviest precipitation
looks to be setting up from about Columbus towards Youngstown
and expect the highest rates of perhaps an inch per hour in this
swath. Snowfall totals still look to be 2 to 4 inches across
most areas through sunrise, with slightly lower values in
Northwest Ohio and slightly higher values in our southern tier
of counties.

The dry-slot aloft will be near Central Ohio by 7AM and into western
New York by 10 AM. The arrival of the dry slot will result in snow
quickly diminishing or coming to an end, before lake effect snows
return across the snowbelt this afternoon. Moisture lags at 700mb
across Lake Erie through about 2 PM before really starting to dry.
Several high resolution models are showing snow showers forming over
Lake Erie in a region of convergence before the 700mb trough passes
overhead and snow showers move onshore. Several models are showing
some contribution from Lake Huron with northerly flow focusing the
greater concentration of snow showers towards the Cleveland
Metro area. Model soundings show low level lapse rates of 7-8C
off Lake Erie this afternoon and will likely see several good
bursts of snow continuing through the afternoon. Limiting
factors are that the best lift is below the dendritic growth
zone and moisture depth will decrease through the afternoon so
this may be a mix of snow and graupel.

Will leave Winter Weather Advisories in tact although suspect
we may be able to cancel areas outside the snowbelt a couple
hours early, depending on conditions. Surface ridging will build
in from the southwest and flow off Lake Erie will back with
snow showers becoming focused closer to the lakeshore. The low
inversion heights and decreasing moisture depth should prevent
much additional accumulation into this evening. High pressure
settles to the southeast on Wednesday and southwesterly winds
will increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the north.
Southwesterly winds may gust between 20-25 mph Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough originating over northern Canada will swing across
the Great Lakes Region Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Surface low pressure will reside over Hudson Bay, but an arctic
cold front extend across the Great Lakes and sweep southeast
across the area early Thursday. Most areas will see scattered
snow showers but some heavier snow bands and squalls are
possible off eastern Lake Erie. A quick 1 to 2 inches is
possible in the Ohio snowbelt with 2 to locally 4 inches in NW
Pennsylvania. Temperatures fall to near 20 degrees by late
Thursday afternoon with wind chills of 5-15 degrees and winds
gusting between 20-30 mph, highest in the east. Skies clear out
on Thursday night and high pressure will support good
radiational cooling. Lows will range from zero to 12 degrees
with the highest near Lake Erie. Fortunately the trough and
accompanying arctic air pulls away quickly and temperatures
start to recover on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast
with a broad trough in place across the eastern two thirds of the
country. Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley on
Saturday with a trough over the eastern Great Lakes. Will need to
monitor flow for orientation of any lake effect snow showers.
Beyond Saturday models are in poor agreement in track and timing
of any impactful systems. It is possible the storm track is to
our south and only have some low chances of snow showers at this
time. Highs will tend to be in the upper 20s to low 30s with
lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR across the TAF sites this
morning, associated with lower vsbys in area wide snow. The
heaviest snow is found across the eastern half of the area this
morning, with vsbys falling as low as 1/4sm at CAK/YNG. Snow
will gradually taper from west to east through this morning,
with vsbys generally improving to VFR by early this afternoon. A
band of snow is expected to arrive off of Lake Erie by mid-
afternoon, impacting CLE/ERI with MVFR and/or IFR vsbys. Lower
vsbys from snow may also extend further south to CAK/YNG by late
afternoon.

Attention then turns late this evening and overnight where low ceilings
are expected to develop area wide. Confidence is medium on this
occurrence, given the IFR and even LIFR ceilings currently
present upstream across portions of WI and IL.

Winds will turn towards the north to northwest behind a surface
trough this afternoon, around 5 knots. Winds will then begin to
favor a southwest direction late this evening and overnight, 5
to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Wednesday evening into Thursday in snow along
a cold front. Non-VFR may return in scattered snow showers on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected through tonight as weak high
pressure persists over the Lower Great Lakes region with winds less
than 15 knots. Small Craft Advisories will be needed across Lake
Erie Wednesday through Thursday as southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots
arrive ahead of a cold front on Wednesday, shifting towards the west
to northwest, 20 to 25 knots, behind the front on Thursday. Can`t
rule out the potential for a Low Water Advisory across the western
basin of Lake Erie ahead of the front with the elevated southwest
winds, though confidence remains low to medium at this time. Winds
will favor a southwest direction towards the end of the week, 15 to
20 knots, shifting towards the west on Saturday behind a cold front,
around 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ011>014-020>023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn