023
FXUS61 KCLE 060129
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
929 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits to the east tonight as low pressure lifts a
warm front northeastward across the area early Sunday morning.
As the low tracks north of the local area, it will drag a cold
front eastward Sunday afternoon and early evening. Canadian
high pressure builds overhead behind the front by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM EDT Update...
The forecast for tonight remains on track and no changes were
needed with this update. Temperatures will vary quite a bit
tonight with upper 50s to lower 60s expected across the western
half of the area and along the majority of the lakeshore with
40s and low to mid 50s more likely east of I-71.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather comes to an end as high pressure exits east as
low pressure and its accompanying upper trough enter from the
west. Dry low levels with 1000-700mb RH values generally between
20-30% will keep the forecast dry despite a warm front lifting
northeast across the local area overnight tonight. Anticipate
for southerly surface winds to increase overnight tonight from
west to east behind the warm front and as a strong LLJ surges
overhead from the west. Overnight lows tonight will range
greatly from west to east with lows settling in the mid 50s to
low 60s where wind speeds are higher in Northwest Ohio and lows
dipping into the mid 40s to low 50s across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania where light winds and mainly clear skies
will allow for radiational cooling overnight.

Active weather returns to the region Sunday afternoon as the
aforementioned upper trough digs east into Northern Ohio while
dragging a cold front eastward. Warm and breezy areawide ahead
of the cold front with southwesterly winds gusting to 20-30 MPH
and high temperatures rising into the mid 70s to low 80s. HREF
members seem to be in good agreement with thunderstorm
initiation between 2-4 PM along and east of I-71. In terms of
severe potential, sufficient daytime heating ahead of the cold
front coupled with a strong low level jet overhead will lead to
SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values between
30-40 knots. All severe hazard types are on the table with the
latest SPC Day 2 Outlook introducing a Slight Risk (Level 2/5)
to Northwest Pennsylvania and extreme parts of Eastern Ohio.

For now, have PoPs ramping up along and east of I-71 at or after 2
PM tomorrow afternoon with the expectation that convection will
quickly exit east out of the local area before sunset as the
cold front swings eastward. Behind the front, winds turn
northwesterly with lake enhanced clouds and rain showers
anticipated across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Chilly overnight lows Sunday night drop into the mid to upper
40s, with low 50s along the lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Monday, the primary upper-level trough moves to the east with a a
couple other shortwave troughs moving southeast across the Great
Lakes region Monday night through Tuesday night. While the vast
majority of the forecast area will likely be mostly sunny/clear in
the short term period as high pressure builds in from the west, the
marginal forcing/moisture and cold air aloft from these short wave
troughs will be just enough for isolated to scattered lake effect
rain showers in parts of Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise, the big
pattern change will be with temperatures becoming 5-10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in on Wednesday and Thursday,
slowly drifting southward as it weakens on Friday and Saturday. No
precipitation is expected with very few clouds. Temperatures will
continue to be a few degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday
before temperatures warm back up next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR will prevail through at least early Sunday before
thunderstorms begin to develop ahead of a cold front Sunday
afternoon. Confidence in thunderstorms is highest at KERI/KYNG
with somewhat lower confidence at KCAK and can`t rule out
stronger thunderstorm wind gusts. Maintained VCSH at KCLE for
the time being since showers could begin to develop in the
vicinity of the terminal before intensifying into thunderstorms
as they move east. Outside of the potential for non-VFR
visibilities and maybe ceilings in thunderstorms, VFR will
continue through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the south/southeast at 5 to 10 knots
tonight before shifting to the southwest and increasing to 12 to
17 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots by mid to late morning
Sunday. A 40-45 knot LLJ over NW OH late tonight into early
Sunday morning will likely result in a period of LLWS at
KTOL/KFDY between about 08Z and 13Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers across NW PA
Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front lifts north across Lake Erie tonight, with southerly
winds of 15-25 knots developing late tonight through Sunday morning.
There will be a little bit of lull early Sunday afternoon before a
cold front moves east across the area early to mid afternoon.
Immediately behind this cold front, strong northwest winds of 25-30
knots will develop before gradually dissipating Sunday night and
Monday. A small craft advisory is in effect for all of Lake Erie for
these conditions. Northwest flow of around 15 knots should continue
through Tuesday and Wednesday before high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Saunders