214
FXUS61 KCLE 102034
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure progressing into the eastern Great Lakes tonight
will drag a strong cold front through the region this evening.
This low will slowly lift into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday
as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. A fast moving
clipper system will drop from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley Thursday night and Friday followed by another clipper
and arctic cold front Saturday. A trough will then remain across
the Great Lakes through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
We are now in the second phase of the synoptic portion of this
weather system. Afternoon satellite and water vapor loops show
the impressive mid/upper shortwave trough dropping from Lower
Michigan east/southeast through the southern Great Lakes. The
left exit of a 125-135 knot H3 jet streak rounding the base of
this trough per RAP analysis is supporting continued deepening
of the surface low. The low is currently centered near Buffalo,
NY and will progress into the St. Lawrence River Valley this
evening, dragging a strong cold front southeast through the
region. All of northern Ohio and NW PA are currently in the warm
sector and dry slot, with scattered rain showers and drizzle,
except for some rain/snow mix in far NE Ohio and NW PA where
colder temperatures have hung on. This will not last much
longer, with regional radar loops showing a burst of snow along
the cold front in Lower Michigan and southwestern Ontario
dropping into Lake Erie. Expect a rapid changeover back to snow
late this afternoon and evening as this burst moves
southeastward through the region. This will occur between 19 and
20Z along the I-75 corridor, 20 to 21Z along the I-77 corridor,
and 21 to 22Z in far eastern Ohio and western PA. This will lead
to a quick coating of snow on roadways and visibilities dropping
to 1/2 mile or less at times during the evening commute, including
the greater Cleveland and Akron/Canton areas. Temperatures will
be below freezing areawide by 00Z, so will need to watch for
black ice on untreated surfaces as well given the rainfall that
occurred today.

This will take us into the lake-effect portion of this event.
Strong cold air advection in the wake of the front tonight and
Thursday as the mid/upper trough axis digs through the Great
Lakes combined with broad cyclonic flow will generate a lake
response. An initial NW boundary layer flow tonight (about
310-320 degrees) will direct a Lake Huron connected band into NW
PA. There is uncertainty in the exact location of this band as
is always the case, but 850 mb temps falling to -13 to -14 C
combined with decent moisture and lift into the DGZ support
snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour at times under this band,
mainly in upslope portions of southern Erie County, PA. It is
possible that the band clips NE Crawford County, PA at times,
but given the uncertainty in how much the band will wobble, kept
Crawford in an Advisory since confidence in warning level snow
is higher in southern Erie. Outside of this Huron band tonight,
there should be a lull most of the night. A 310-320 degree
boundary layer flow is a short fetch across Lake Erie, and this
combined with forecast soundings showing a lot of dry air and
subsidence will cause lake-effect to struggle farther west. We
will have to wait until during the day Thursday when the flow
backs and moisture improves to see more organized bands develop
across the Ohio snowbelt. RAP and HREF guidance suggest a weak
mid-level impulse or two dropping through the southern Great
Lakes Thursday, increasing moisture and lift as the flow backs,
and this combined with increasing south shore convergence
should get bands going east of Cleveland and into PA, which will
gradually lift NE Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
So, after the burst of synoptic snow with the cold front this
evening, additional lake-effect snow will mostly hold off until
Thursday into Thursday night, except for under the Huron band in
PA.

With all of this being said, slightly lowered additional
snowfall to 1-3 inches in the higher terrain of eastern
Cuyahoga, Geauga, and southern Ashtabula Counties, with 1-2
inches near the lakeshore of Cuyahoga and Ashtabula Counties and
in Lake County. Locally up to 4 inches could fall in Geauga and
southern Ashtabula Counties. Generally 1-2 inches is expected
across NE Medina, northern Summit, Portage, and Trumbull
Counties. Kept forecasted additional snow similar to previous
forecasts in NW PA, with 5-10 inches (locally up to 12) in much
of southern Erie County and 3-6 inches in much of Crawford
County (highest NE part of the county). The Erie PA lakeshore
will be in the 1-3 inch range. Based on these updates, the
Advisories continue to look good in Geauga, southern Ashtabula,
and Crawford Counties, with a solid warning in Erie County. The
lake-effect bands will gradually lift into western NY late
Thursday night into Friday morning as the flow backs.

Temperatures will rapidly fall into the upper teens to low 20s
tonight, with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s Thursday. Lows
Thursday night will fall into the mid teens to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The persistently cold and wintry pattern will continue unabated
through the weekend as the mid/upper pattern across North
America further amplifies, with anomalous western CONUS and
Alaskan ridges and a deep eastern CONUS trough below an
elongated polar vortex near Hudson Bay. This is a classic cold
pattern for central and eastern portions of the U.S. as repeated
shots of arctic air drop through the region. Within this cold
and active NW flow pattern will be a series of clipper systems.
The first clipper will dive from the Upper Midwest late Thursday
night through the Ohio Valley Friday. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance are finally starting to come into better agreement on
its track, and the bulk of the snow should stay south of our
CWA. However, areas along and south of U.S. 30 could see up to
0.5 inch of snow Friday. W flow behind this first clipper will
then slowly push lake-effect snow showers back towards lakeshore
areas of far NE Ohio and NW PA Friday night. A second and
stronger clipper will then quickly follow Saturday into Saturday
night, and this one has the better chance for areawide synoptic
snow. Details are still uncertain, but probabilities for at
least 1 inch of snow in most areas are increasing Saturday into
Saturday night. An arctic cold front will be dragged down behind
this clipper as the trough deepens across the Great Lakes once
again, so additional lake-effect snows are likely late Saturday
into Sunday. Depending on wind direction and moisture, this
could be significant for the primary and possibly parts of the
secondary snowbelt.

Highs will remain in the upper 20s to low 30s Friday, cooling
into the low to mid 20s Saturday. Lows Friday night will fall
into the teens areawide, with single digits away from the lake
Saturday night. Wind chill values will fall below zero in most
areas Saturday night, so this is very impressive cold for mid
December! In fact, these air temperatures are 15-20 degrees
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The deep arctic airmass and lake-effect snow showers will
continue Sunday before finally trying to end Monday as high
pressure slowly builds in from the Midwest. This high will slide
across the Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday as the mid/upper
flow turns zonal, and this will signal at least a temporary
break from the cold pattern as Pacific based air is carried
east. The next low approaching by mid week will actually bring
rain as temperatures warm from the teens and 20s Sunday and
Monday to the upper 30s to low 40s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
A brief lull in rain/snow is likely across most of the area at
the very start of the TAF period, however a strong cold front
will enter the northwestern fringe of the CWA within the next
couple of hours and push a burst of snow southeast across the
local area between about 19Z and 00Z. Snow will likely end at
KTOL/KFDY/KMFD near or shortly after 00Z with lake-enhanced snow
showers continuing across NE OH/NW PA through midnight. Lake-
enhanced precip may dwindle a bit late tonight, however a
primary band of moderate lake-enhanced snow will likely develop
downwind from Lake Huron somewhere in NE OH/NW PA overnight
before lifting northeast as flow backs to the west by early
Thursday morning. This could push the band of snow and lower
visibilities over KERI at some point between 04Z and 09Z
Thursday. Additional lake effect snow showers will most likely
develop Thursday morning, resulting in increasing snow chances
across the remainder of the snowbelt region (including KCLE and
KYNG).

Flight conditions will be somewhat variable across the area
tonight through 18Z Thursday with VFR likely developing at
persisting at KTOL and ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR
outside of lake effect snow/clouds. Terminals that experience
lake effect snow/clouds will generally have MVFR conditions in
lower ceilings/visibilities, however there may be periods of IFR
conditions in any localized bands of moderate snow.

Winds will shift from the west to the northwest behind the cold
front this evening and breezy conditions with sustained winds to
12 to 17 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots are expected through
this evening. Winds will diminish slightly to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 20 to 25 knots tonight before becoming more
westerly and diminishing to 8 to 14 knots with gusts to around
20 knots during the day Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected in periods of lake effect snow
through Thursday night. Additional non-VFR is likely in periods
of snow as a series of systems cross the area Friday through
the weekend, best chance across NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine headlines will likely be needed for the majority of the late
week/weekend period as a series of systems cross the local area. A
cold front will continue to cross the local area late this afternoon
into this evening, allowing winds to shift to the northwest in its
wake. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the open and
nearshore waters from Reno Beach east until 00Z/7 PM this
evening. Northwest gales will diminish to 20 to 30 knots tonight
with winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the western basin
early Thursday morning. Flow becomes more westerly during the
day Thursday and winds will remain elevated in the eastern and
central basins before winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots late
Thursday night into Friday. Winds are expected to shift to the
west/southwest by Friday night before increasing to 20 to 30
knots on Saturday and shifting to the northwest Saturday night
through late Sunday. Winds should diminish early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15