379
FXUS61 KCLE 081112
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move through the region today. A
series of low pressure systems will move through the region for the
middle of the week with a weaker low on Tuesday, followed by a
stronger low on Wednesday. High pressure will briefly return for
Thursday before more unsettled weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold northerly flow ahead of high pressure has allowed for some
clouds and light snow showers to develop with some lake effect off
Lakes Huron and Erie. The amount of moisture in the region with the
surface high approaching is very limited so any impacts are just
some clouds and a couple flakes in the air but do not expect any
accumulations this morning. For the daytime hours today into
tonight, expecting dry weather across the region with high
pressure in place. Temperatures will continue to be below normal
with this surface high bringing more cold air to the region over
a light snow pack. Temperatures tonight will be in the teens to
upper single digits. With just some light winds, wind chills
could be near to just below zero in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The middle of this week continues to appear active with a
sequence of troughs and a pair of low pressure systems expected
to move through the Great Lakes. For Tuesday, an initial
shortwave will dig into the region and support a weaker low
pressure system through the northern Great Lakes. The forecast
area will be on the periphery of this system with a warm front
passing through the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There
will be some snow for NE Ohio and NW PA with the warm front with
an inch or so possible in NW PA by Tuesday evening.

For Tuesday night, the area will be in a warm advection
pattern, as the next, stronger upper trough and low pressure
enter for Wednesday. Precipitation will enter Tuesday night with
this system and with some warmer temperatures in the 30s to
lower 40s, expect a transition to rain for most of the forecast
area with the onset of this system. Some snow may stick around
NW PA, where another inch of snow could accumulate. On Wednesday
afternoon, this system will pass to the east and extend a cold
front across the area, allowing for rain to change to snow for
all locations and some minor accumulations will be expected
across the board. Some lake enhancement will allow for another
inch or two of snow in NE OH/NW PA by Wednesday night. Another
concern for the Tuesday night through Wednesday night period
will be winds as a strong low level jet will move through the
region with the low pressure system and cold front. Wind gusts
as strong as 40-45 mph are possible on land and there is
potential for a wind advisory, depending on the low pressure
system track.

For Thursday, there still is uncertainty on how much snow will
be in the region behind these systems. The end track of the
Wednesday system will determine how long a trough will remain
over Lake Erie to allow for some lake enhanced snow into the
eastern half of the area before high pressure and a low level
ridge build into the region and allow for snow chances off Lake
Erie to end. Will maintain a generic mix of PoPs across the area
until these features can be resolved. Overall, not expecting too
much snow for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast will continue the cold and unsettled
pattern that has been featured so far in December. There are
some model disagreements on timing and strength of systems.
However, in general, a low pressure system will move through the
Great Lakes region on Friday, ushering another reinforcing shot
of cold air across the local area while allowing for some
widespread light snow. Behind this system, some component of a
surface trough will set up over the region and allow for lake
effect snow for Saturday and Sunday with the best chance for
accumulations in the traditional areas of NE Ohio and NW PA. If
some of the colder model solutions like the 00z GFS can be
realized, there would be some potential for some significant
lake effect snows in the Great Lakes region. However, there is
too much spread in the guidance at this time to say anything
more than that the lake effect machine will be going this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR ceilings and conditions are expected today through
tonight. High and mid level clouds will drifting through our
skies but mainly above 10K feet. Winds will be from the
northeast to east today 5 to 10 knots. Winds will become
southerly tonight 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which
will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain
will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through
Thursday. Gusty winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will be very unsettled
and rough throughout this week, especially Tuesday through
Wednesday night. High pressure is currently building over the
Great Lakes region this morning. Winds are starting out from the
Northeast 15 to 20 knots this morning with waves of 3 to 5
feet. There is a Small Craft Advisory through mid morning for
the central and eastern nearshore marine zones. Winds and waves
will relax later today becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots and 1 to
3 feet. Winds will become southerly tonight 10 to 15 knots and
waves 1 to 3 feet.

A low pressure system will track across the Upper Great Lakes
region on Tuesday with an increasing southerly flow 15 to 30
knots and waves building 5 to 8 feet in the nearshore zones,
higher in the open waters. Additional Small Craft Advisories
will be likely on Tuesday. There is some potential of winds
approaching Gales on Tuesday in the open water. Marine conditions
will further deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of
stronger low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes
region. Southwest Gales 35 to 40 knot increasing likely Tuesday
night through Wednesday for most of the central and eastern
basin of Lake Erie. Waves will further increase 8 to 14, if not
higher in the open water Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong
cold front will switch the winds from the northwest 15 to 25
knots Wednesday night into Thursday and waves 4 to 8 feet.
Additional SCA will likely be needed Wednesday night through
Thursday. Another strong cold front will move across the lake
Friday into Saturday with gusty northwest winds 15 to 30 knots
and higher waves. Additional marine headlines will be likely
late this week into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77