258
FXUS61 KCLE 011945
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight and Sunday before departing to
the east coast Sunday night. A weak cold front sweeps eastward
across the area on Monday with high pressure building back in
Monday night into Tuesday. Another weak low pressure system is
expected to impact the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Light lake effect rain showers continue across far Northeast
Ohio (likely limited to just Ashtabula/Lake Counties) and
Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon. An upper-level trough
located to our southwest mainly provide enough lift/moisture for
a slight uptick in showery activity in that same area, along
with light shower or sprinkle elsewhere this evening into early
tonight. A few showers may linger over the eastern basin of Lake
Erie Sunday morning but high pressure building in should allow
for mostly sunny/clear skies Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front swing
through on Monday. Moisture will be rather limited, with
isolated to scattered showers mainly limited to eastern Lake
Erie and Northwest Pennsylvania. Otherwise, breezy conditions
expected on Monday, especially near Lake Erie. High pressure
builds back in with quiet conditions on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A fairly repetitive weather pattern continues in the long term
with yet another low pressure system impacting the region on
Wednesday. This trough is likely to be slightly deeper and more
amplified than our Monday system, though still only expecting
light scattered showers across most of the area Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. High pressure builds back in on
Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Another low pressure system
impacts the region on Friday, with our best shot at widespread
rain, though QPF potential is still pretty low (mostly like a
tenth or two of rain).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Scattered lake effect rain showers may intermittently move over
KERI this afternoon into this evening and this will provide the
main opportunity for MVFR conditions, however there is quite a
bit of dry air in place so it`s possible that very little (if
any) precip reaches the surface. Otherwise, mid-level VFR lake
effect clouds between 4000 and 6000 ft AGL will continue across
portions of the area through tonight before ceilings rise and
cloud cover decreases as high pressure builds into the region
early Sunday morning.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 5 to 10 knots through
early this evening before becoming light and variable near or
shortly after 00Z. Winds will generally be 5 knots or less
through the remainder of the TAF period, although winds at KERI
will likely become south/southwest and increase to 5 to 10 knots
within the last few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered light rain showers on
Monday, primarily at KERI. Non-VFR chances may return in
additional scattered rain showers on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Periods of hazardous marine conditions are expected over the
next several days. Generally expect southwest winds to 6 to 12
knots through Sunday evening with a period of light and variable
flow expected overnight tonight. Southwest winds will increase
as a cold front approaches from the west Sunday night into
Monday with winds reaching 15 to 25 knots by Sunday morning.
Winds will peak at around 25 to 30 knots in the central and
eastern basins, although the open waters east of the Islands
will likely reach 32 knots and possibly approach gales for a
brief period Monday afternoon. Winds will likely be closer to 15
to 20 knots in the nearshore waters of the western basin. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed for most of the lake Monday and
Monday night with headlines possibly continuing as waves
gradually subside in the eastern basin on Tuesday morning. Will
need to keep an eye on the potential for low water issues in
the western basin during the peak sustained winds during the day
Monday, especially if winds trend higher. Southwest winds to 8
to 15 knots are expected Tuesday through early Wednesday before
shifting to the northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Additional Small
Craft Advisories are likely during this time.

Waterspouts are possible in showers/lake effect clouds tonight
into Sunday morning. The waterspout risk will diminish as high
pressure builds over the region Sunday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15