194
FXUS61 KCLE 171133
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds east as a warm front lifts across the region
tonight. Strong low pressure develops across the Plains before
tracking northeast across the Great Lakes. The low will drag a cold
front east across the local area on Sunday before exiting to the
northeast on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will gradually build to the east through
today as a warm front lifts across the region. Expect for some mid
to high level clouds to move into the local area by late this
morning. The area should remain dry through the bulk of the day
today with shower chances increasing across portions of Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight as low level moisture
increases. Kept PoPs generally in the 30-60% range tonight through
Saturday morning. Warm and breezy by Saturday as the region becomes
established in the warm sector behind the warm front.

High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid 60s
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with highs in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the I-75 corridor. Increased
cloud cover and the passage of a warm front will allow for overnight
lows tonight to settle in the upper 40s to lower 50s, low 40s
across Northwest Pennsylvania. Much warmer on Saturday with
highs rising into the mid to upper 70s for most, low 80s across
Northwest Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather arrives Saturday night as a deepening low pressure
system and upper level trough move through the Great Lakes region.
The surface low will eject out of the Central Plains and deepen as
it tracks towards the Great Lakes region. There continues to be some
differences in the exact timing and track of the surface low with
most deterministic runs continuing to slow down the arrival of the
low and its accompanying cold front. Will continue to analyze trends
to narrow down exact timing of this system over the next few cycles.
Overall picture remains the same regardless of specific details.

Rain will move across the region from west to east along and ahead
of the cold front Saturday evening into Sunday. Warm and windy
conditions persist ahead of the cold front as the LLJ moves overhead
Saturday night. There remains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the western half of
the forecast area Saturday evening ahead of the cold front. The
primary severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts given the
wind field. Confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms
remains low with this forecast package as any instability that
develops Saturday will likely be waning with the arrival of the
cold front.

The front will swing east across the local area on Sunday with
southerly winds and gusts increasing along and ahead of the cold
front. Expect for wind gusts to peak between 35-45+ MPH late
Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to push east across the area on Sunday with the
cold front. SPC has placed our entire forecast area in a Day 3
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds as the primary hazard. Confidence for widespread
wetting rains remains high with NBM probabilities of 1.00+
inches of rain ranging between 50-70% across the area.
Persistent drought conditions will lessen any concern for
flooding. The cold front will exit to the east Sunday
night/early Monday morning with rain showers diminishing from
west to east and westerly winds and gusts diminishing by late
Sunday night.

By Monday a low to mid level ridge will build across the region
which will allow for a brief reprieve from cloudy, breezy, and rainy
conditions through Monday night. Another system is quick to arrive
from the Upper Great Lakes Monday night. Temperatures vary
through the short term given the passage of the cold front.
Overnight lows Saturday night settle in the mid 50s areawide
before falling into the low to mid 40s Sunday and Monday night.
Highs on Sunday afternoon rise into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern continues into the long term with another
upper level trough diving across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into
Wednesday. Shower chances and breezy conditions are expected to
return with the mid week system. Highs are generally expected to
rise into the 50s each afternoon with lows falling into the upper
30s to lower 40s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Very good aviation conditions will persist through the TAF
cycle. High pressure with light to calm winds is overhead at the
start of the period. High pressure will shift to the East Coast
by tonight with light southerly flow developing behind it
today. Otherwise increasing mid and high level cloud can be
expected. There is a low probability of a shower near ERI
between 03-09Z but confidence is too low to include in the TAF
at this time.

Outlook...Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes
Saturday night through Sunday night, bringing with it gusty
winds, rain, scattered afternoon thunderstorms and non-VFR
conditions. Non-VFR may continue into Monday downwind of Lake
Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR
possible with scattered showers on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure overhead will result in very good marine conditions on
Lake Erie today. As the high builds to the east coast we will see
southerly winds increase into the 10-20 knot range tonight into
Saturday.

We continue to monitor a strong storm system that will approach from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and track through the Central Great Lakes
on Sunday. While models have struggled with the track and strength
of this system, the 00Z/17 model suite has come into better
agreement with a deepening low pressure system tracking across
southeast Michigan on Sunday morning. A strong low level jet will be
over Lake Erie ahead of this feature and we will see southerly winds
ramp up from 20 to near 30 knots by Sunday morning. The potential
exists for southerly gale force winds across the central and western
basin immediately ahead of this low Sunday morning before a cold
front sweeps east and winds shift to southwesterly and westerly. The
potential for gale force winds will continue along and behind the
frontal passage, especially on the east half of Lake Erie. With that
said, we will continue to monitor the track of this system and
adjustments may be needed. Winds look to veer to northwesterly on
Sunday night as the initial low moves north towards James Bay with a
secondary low developing over Pennsylvania. Waves will ramp up
substantially with this system into the 9-13 foot range on the
central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the day on
Monday. Winds back to southwesterly Monday night ahead of the next
system that rapidly approaches from the Upper Midwest. This fast
moving system will bring another round of strong winds of 20-30
knots for Tuesday and Tuesday night as it races east across the
Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010-011-013-
     014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10