701
FXUS61 KCLE 272337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area on Friday as a low
pressure system develops in the Central Plains on Saturday. This
low pressure system will move northeast across the Lower Great
Lakes on Sunday, extending a cold front east through the area on
Monday. High pressure will return by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

7:37 PM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

Main concern of the near term period will be late tonight into
Friday afternoon as a warm front lifts north across the area.

Already seeing elevated showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead the developing warm front and MUCAPE gradient across
northeastern MO this afternoon, aided by a modest 35 to 40-knots
southwest low-level jet. The low-level jet is expected to
intensity to 40 to 45 knots tonight as it slowly lifts the warm
front north and northeast into the area Friday morning. Do
anticipate some thunderstorms to develop along the MUCAPE
gradient, particularly on the southern flank of the convection
that develops along the warm front Friday morning and early
afternoon so went ahead and added a slight chance thunder with
this forecast update. Rainfall amounts have also increased with
this forecast update, with a quick half inch to perhaps three-
quarters of an inch possible where heavier convection develops.
Dry weather is favored behind the warm front, with high
temperatures expected to quickly rise into the 60s and lower 70s
out west.

Otherwise, for the rest of today, a weak lake breeze has
developed along lakeshore generally east of Cleveland, although
recent observations suggest it will retreat back out over the
lake as the MSLP gradient increases into this evening. Favored a
dry forecast through this evening as the low levels mixed out a
little more than anticipated, resulting in large T/Td spreads.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period (focusing on Days 3 and 4 of the forecast)
continues to look active as an broad upper level trough and surface
low are expected to impact the area. Initially on Saturday, a warm
front will have settled north of the area, allowing for a shift to a
WAA and increased moisture advection across the area with gusty
southwest winds of 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph especially across
western counties. These gusty winds will be a result of a potent LLJ
of 40-50 knots pushing north across the area. This combination of
low level atmospheric conditions mixed with weak upper level
support from a short wave should produce scattered showers
throughout the day Saturday, becoming more widespread Saturday night
ahead of the approaching parent low and associated cold front.

On Sunday, there may be a brief lull in precipitation early in the
day ahead of more widespread showers along the cold front expected
to move east Sunday evening into the overnight hours. On Sunday,
ensemble guidance suggests a push of moisture north, increasing dew
points into the upper 50s, possible touching 60 by Sunday afternoon.
In addition, lingering in the warm sector with a strong LLJ, modeled
CAPE values gradually increase through the day, maxing out near 00Z
Monday just over 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values approaching 50
knots. These conditions would be conducive to strong to severe
storms, most likely in the evening to early overnight hours on
Sunday. It is important to note that there continues to be quite a
bit of divergence amongst models in handling the track and timing of
the surface low, with the ECWMF being the biggest outlier with a
much slow progression of this system. These slight differences in
the forecast may mean the difference between severe weather or no
severe weather, so stay tuned for more updates as the time gets
closer. Other factors that may inhibit strong to severe storms is
the earlier potential for rain and lingering clouds keeping
instability lower or time shifting and becoming less diurnally
favorable. Knowing all of this, SPC has highlighted areas along and
south of US-224 in the Day 4 outlook. With the strong shear and
instability, there is a potential for organized convection to
develop and all hazards to be possible.

In addition to the severe threat, a very moist airmass will result
in period of heavy, efficient rainfall which may lead to localized
flooding concerns. The current forecast has just over 1" expected on
Sunday through Sunday night. Expect this to be locally higher in the
strongest storms. As a result, WPC has highlighted the area in a
Marginal Day 4 ERO.

High temperatures this weekend will rebound into the upper 60s to
low 70s, with the warmest temperatures expected on Saturday.
Overnight lows on Saturday will remain very mild, only dropping into
the 50s, but cooling into the 40s on Sunday as the aforementioned
cold front begins to push east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering showers are possible for the first half of Monday as the
aforementioned cold front continues to push east out of the area.
These showers will diminish from west to east throughout the day as
high pressure gradually builds over the area from the north. By
Tuesday morning, conditions should dry out and remain like this into
the overnight hours. By the middle of the week, a more potent upper
level trough will move out of the central US towards the region,
moving another associated surface low northeast. This will present
another chance for widespread showers. This system again looks
rather robust and will likely bring with it another period of
concern for strong to severe convection. Although there is quite a
bit of divergence in model agreement with handling this system, it
is worth noting that the CSU-MLP probabilities are already
highlighting portions of the CWA for severe weather. Will have to
keep an eye on this midweek system and trends within models.

There is expected to be another period of roller coaster
temperatures through the long term period, starting out in the 40s
to low 50s before again warming into the 60s for the end of the
period. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend, dropping into
the upper 20s to low 30s Monday night before becoming more mild in
the upper 40s by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 00Z/Sat. At the surface, a weak ridge shifts
E`ward across our region this evening through early Friday
afternoon. A warm front sweeps NNE`ward through our area between
~12Z/Fri and ~19Z/Fri. Behind the front, another ridge noses
into our region from the TN Valley and vicinity through 00Z/Sat.
Our regional surface winds trend variable in direction and
around 5 knots in magnitude this evening before becoming SE`erly
to SSE`erly around 5 to 10 knots Fri morning, along the
backside of the first ridge. The warm front`s passage will cause
winds to veer to S`erly to SW`erly and increase to around 10 to
20 knots. The S`erly to SW`erly winds are expected to gust up
to 20 to 30 knots at times through 00Z/Sat.

Scattered to broken cloud layers based near 5kft to 10kft AGL
are expected for the time being. However, as the warm front
approaches, widespread ceilings are expected to develop and lower
to the MVFR range and may periodically reach the IFR range from
generally SW to NE between ~07Z/Fri and ~17Z/Fri. These ceilings
will be associated with widespread rain showers. The showers
will be steady at times. A few thunderstorms are possible along
the upper-reaches of the warm front.

Behind the surface warm front, low-level clouds near 2kft AGL
are expected to primarily scatter-out from generally SW to NE
through 00Z/Sat in response to the second aforementioned ridge.
Lingering rain showers associated with the aforementioned
disturbances aloft should end within four or six hours after
the warm front`s passage across most of our region. However,
these rain showers may linger over far-NE OH and NW PA through
00Z/Sat. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and MVFR in
rain ahead of and behind the surface warm front.

Outlook...Isolated rain showers with non-VFR may linger over
far-NE OH and NW PA Friday evening into the wee hours of
Saturday morning. Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected
Saturday, especially Saturday night, through this Tuesday
morning. Snow may mix with rain Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Note: Periodic thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon through early Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to persist through Friday as
high pressure remains dominant over the area. Late Friday evening
into the overnight hours, a warm front will approach and gradually
move north across Lake Erie, increasing southwest winds to near 20
knots by Saturday morning and persisting through the day. This may
be a period where a Small Craft is needed, but given very marginal
winds, confidence is not high. A lull in winds of 10-15 knots
Saturday night through much of Sunday will occur before shifting to
northwesterly behind a cold front moving east Sunday night into
Monday. Behind this boundary, winds increase to 20-25 knots with
onshore flow resulting in waves building to 4-6 feet. There is
higher confidence in needing a Small Craft Advisory from Sunday
night through Monday night a stronger surface trough lingers with
onshore flow. By Tuesday, high pressure returns and results in
variable winds of 10-15 knots through Wednesday before another
system impacts the region for midweek.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Kahn
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...04