940
FXUS61 KCLE 241713
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
113 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will persist across the area through Tuesday.
High pressure will gradually build east across the region on
Wednesday and remain through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main focus for the near term period will be a trough sweeping
east across the area late this evening into Monday. A decently-
cold air mass will be in place ahead of the trough passage,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures ranging between 7 to 9C.
Scattered lake effect rain showers are expected to develop after
sunset this evening across the snowbelt, though confidence is
on the lower side in terms of placement as southwest surface
winds begin to develop over land as the boundary layer attempts
to stabilize. Believe the ultimate placement of the pre-trough
lake effect showers may lie somewhere between the HREF and RDPS
solutions, likely hugging the lakeshore.

Attention then turns towards a potent upper-level trough which
will swing east through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Monday
and usher in a Fall-like air mass into the region. This trough
will result in a period of scattered rain showers and
widespread cloud cover across the entire area Monday afternoon.
Seasonably-cold temperatures are expected on Monday with highs
generally in the upper 60s with blustery west winds of around 20
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The main story of the short term period will be a Fall-like
weather pattern resulting in seasonably-cold temperatures with
lake effect rain showers across the snowbelt.

The most widespread and heaviest period of lake effect rain
showers and perhaps occasional thunderstorms will be Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the base of the upper- level
trough swings east through the Ohio Valley, further steepening
low and mid- level lapse rates across the area. Another weaker
trough will sweep east through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday which
may result in additional isolated to scattered rain showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder or two across the entire area
Tuesday afternoon. With the cold air mass in place,
characterized by 850 mb temperatures around 4 to 5C, periodic lake
effect rain showers will also persist across the snowbelt into
Tuesday night.

High pressure will begin gradually building east across the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday which will result in
improving weather conditions across the area. Could still see
some lingering lake effect rain showers across portions of far
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, particularly
Wednesday morning, though low confidence on available low and
mid- level moisture precludes mentionable precipitation chances
at this time.

Below average temperatures are expected for the short term
period, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday,
only improving slightly into the upper 60s to lower 70s by
Wednesday. Overnight temperatures may near record- lows at some
sites, with lows dipping into the mid to upper 40s Monday and
Tuesday nights - see climate discussion below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below average temperatures in the lower 70s appear favored to
persist for the long term period as the upper-level pattern
remains in a troughing regime. High pressure on Thursday may
give way to another cold front Thursday night into Friday,
though confidence remains low on precipitation chances
associated with the front at this time. Weak high pressure may
build once again by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, WSW`erly to W`erly flow persists over our region as a low
drifts SSE`ward over the southern James Bay area through 18Z/Mon.
Simultaneously and at the surface, a trough lingers over/near
the eastern Great Lakes as a ridge attempts to build from the
northern/central Great Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. Our
regional surface winds trend W`erly to NW`erly around 5 to 15
knots through the TAF period.

Primarily VFR and fair weather are expected through 18Z/Mon.
Scattered to broken cumuli with bases near 4kft AGL over
northern OH and NW PA are expected to dissipate with nocturnal
cooling between 22Z/Sun and 00Z/Mon. After ~02Z/Mon, lake-effect
stratocumuli and periodic rain showers should stream generally
ESE`ward over/downwind of Lake Erie and impact NW PA, including
KERI, and portions of NE and north-central OH, including KYNG
and KCLE. Occasional MVFR are possible with the lake-effect
clouds and especially precip.

Outlook...Lake-effect rain showers are expected the rest of Monday
through about midday Wednesday, generally east and southeast of
Lake Erie. These rain showers will be most-persistent in NW PA
and NE OH. Note: scattered to widespread rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms should occur during the mid-afternoon
through early evening hours of Monday and scattered rain showers
should occur during the afternoon through early evening hours
of Tuesday as disturbances traverse our area. Scattered rain
showers are possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the
approach and eventual passage of a cold front. Non-VFR should
accompany any shower or storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will become a little choppy today and less ideal
by tomorrow. A cold front is moving across the lake this morning.
Westerly winds will follow the passage of the cold front today 10 to
15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. A secondary cold front will push
across the lake late tonight into early Monday. Winds will increase
late tonight through Tuesday westerly to northwesterly 10 to 20
knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. There is the potential for lake
headlines including Small Craft Advisories and possibly Beach Hazard
Statements for rip currents might be needed late tonight through
Tuesday. A chance of waterspouts will be possible on Lake Erie late
tonight through Tuesday with the push of cooler temperatures moving
over the warmer lake. Marine conditions will improve towards the
middle and end of this week. Winds will become west-southwesterly 5
to 15 knots by Wednesday and Thursday and waves of 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.

Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
08-26   45(1964)       38(1958)       47(1958)       41(1914)       40(1897)       47(1958)
08-27   48(1969)       36(1946)       49(1963)       44(1914)       43(1969)       47(1954)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77
CLIMATE...CLE