984
FXUS61 KCLE 101148
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
648 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit to the east this morning. A cold front
will track across the region tonight into Saturday with high
pressure returning to the region Saturday night. The next system
will cross the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure has become centered just to our south this
morning, with near calm winds and a strong temperature
inversion developing over the central part of our forecast
area. Temperatures have dropped to the single digits from
approximately Lorain to Mount Vernon and points east. To the
west and along the lakeshore, temperatures in the low to mid
10s are observed.

High pressure departs to the east later this morning as an
upper-level trough approaches today and crosses the eastern
CONUS tonight. Two areas of relatively weak low pressure
located over the Great Lakes and the southern Mississippi Valley
are associated with the trough. Modest isentropic lift will
support widespread snow late this afternoon through the
overnight hours tonight. Initially may have to battle dry low-
levels before it saturates. Best snow rates are likely to be the
first few hours this evening into early tonight when the
dendritic growth zone is at its thickest, and is also most
collocated with the best mid-level lift. Peak snowfall rates of
1/2"/hr may be possible.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the western half
of the forecast area, including Holmes/Wayne to Erie/Huron OH
counties and points west. While our entire forecast area is
likely to see two to three inches of snow, the advisory area has
the best chance to see isolated amounts to four inches. The
advisory area is also most likely to have the Friday evening
commute impacted, especially the I-75 corridor and western
portions of the turnpike. Snowfall in the eastern portion of the
forecast area is likely to fall later.

Synoptic-scale snow likely ends early Saturday morning with lake
effect snow developing in its wake during the day Saturday.
Temperatures of around -10 to -12 C at 850mb will marginally
support lake effect showers with an additional inch or two in
the snow belt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered snow showers may
persist with a couple tenths of additional snow accumulations
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
There will be some lingering scattered lake effect snow showers
Saturday evening over the primary Snowbelt. High pressure will build
in from the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night and that will change
the low level wind flow to become less ideal for lake effect to
continue later Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, the low
level flow will return from the south as high pressure starts to
move eastward and a slightly stronger area of low pressure
tracks into the Upper Midwest. The low level lake effect cloud
cover will be push northward out of the area but high and mid
level cloudiness will increase ahead of the next storm system
moving into the western Great Lakes. Southwest winds will
increase 15 to 25 mph late Sunday through Monday morning. There
may be just enough moisture for some very light snow or
flurries that push through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning with the synoptic system and a cold front. The moisture
will be limited with alot of drier air in the lowest level of
the air column. A stronger upper level trough will develop and
dig down across the Great Lakes Monday into the middle of next
week. The model guidance has been in good agreement that setup
will favor heavier lake effect snow for the Snowbelt areas.
Another shot of Arctic air will move down across the Great Lakes
starting Monday and will likely start up the lake effect
machine. The low level wind flow will start out from the west-
southwest which will also favor squalls along the lakeshore of
far NEOH into NWPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The middle of next week looks colder with more lake effect snow
for the Snowbelt. The LES setup with a westerly flow will favor
the primary snowbelt or possibly a more organized bands hugging
the lakeshore of far NEOH/NWPA on Tuesday. By Wednesday, there
will maybe a slight shift in the flow becoming more
northwesterly as well as a Lake Huron connection. That setup
will favor more of the primary and perhaps the secondary. There
are some uncertainties this far out with moisture profiles and
how much the lake has frozen over. Lake effect snow may linger
through Wednesday night before a southwesterly wind pushes the
lake effect away from our area. Below average temperatures and
more lake effect snow will be the main weather message for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly VFR conditions are across the TAF sites this
morning. Some MVFR ceilings may be around ERI for a few hours
early early this morning. Our aviation weather concerns turn
towards the a round of widespread light snow moving in late this
afternoon through early Saturday morning. There is high
confidence for widespread lower end MVFR ceilings and reduced visibilities
falling quickly to IFR as steady snow spreads east across the
region tonight. Confidence is low on prevailing LIFR
visibilities, though isolated pockets may be possible.

Light winds out of the southwest are expected this morning
increasing 5 to 10 knot later today and tonight.

Outlook... Non-VFR is possible across the snowbelt Saturday
into Sunday with scattered lake effect clouds and snow showers.
Non- VFR may return in snow from a clipper system Sunday night
into Monday and may persist in lake effect snow through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds will start to increase again today 10-15 knot expected.
This will continue tonight before veering to the West and
increasing to 15-25 knots Saturday behind a cold front, so Small
Craft Advisories may be needed. Winds will diminish slightly
and become SW at 10-20 knots Saturday night and Sunday before
gradually turning WSW and increasing to 15-25 knots late Sunday
night and Monday as another cold front crosses the lake. W winds
will then increase to 20-30 knots Monday night and Tuesday, and
brief gales cannot be ruled out along with freezing spray.

The western basin of Lake Erie is quickly becoming ice covered, and
this will slowly grow eastward through next week as arctic air
remains in place, and water temperatures have fallen to 33 F at both
CLE and ERI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Griffin