602
FXUS61 KCLE 031739
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1239 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east across the area this
afternoon before exiting to the east this evening. High pressure
will briefly build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday with
a warm front lifting into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
cold front will cross the local area on Wednesday as low
pressure moves northeast over the central Great Lakes.
Additional systems will move across the area late this week into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will sweep east across the area this afternoon before
exiting to the east this evening. The only notable impact from this
front will be gusty winds to 25 to 35 mph prior to sunset with
periodic gusts to 40+ mph likely along the immediate lakeshore of NE
OH/NW PA this afternoon. Light returns are present on radar, but
generally expect virga until the showers encounter a corridor of
better moisture over NE OH/NW PA this afternoon. Any precip will be
quick to exit into north-central PA and western NY by late afternoon
or early evening. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the near term period with skies efficiently clearing
tonight. Some high clouds will begin to work northeast into the area
during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts
northeast from the Ohio Valley.

Lows will fall into the 30s tonight, although locations downwind
from Lake Erie across NE OH/NW PA will likely have lows in the 40s.
Tuesday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the
upper 30s and mid 40s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The next opportunity for breezy winds and lake-enhanced showers will
arrive on Wednesday as low pressure lifts northeast across the
central Great Lakes, pushing another cold front east across the CWA.
The stronger winds will be located along the immediate lakeshore of
NE OH/NW PA, especially as winds shift to the northwest behind the
cold front. High pressure will briefly return for Thursday with dry
weather and lighter winds expected. PoPs begin to increase from the
west Thursday night as yet another system approaches from the west,
although the majority of the rain chances should occur during the
day Friday (see long term discussion below).

Temperatures will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with
widespread upper 50s and 60s expected areawide. High temperatures
will be in the cooler upper 40s and low to mid 50s Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple systems will move across the area during the long term
period, resulting in periods of precipitation and gusty winds.
Deep low pressure will track east across the Upper Great Lakes
Friday and its associated cold front will move east across the
local area at some point during the day. Widespread rain is
likely across the area during the day Friday with precip
becoming more lake-enhanced Friday night into Saturday. On
Sunday, low pressure will likely move east across southern
Ontario with its attending cold front tracking east across the
CWA. Additional rain showers and breezy conditions are likely
for the end of the weekend with the highest PoPs across NE OH/NW
PA due to lake enhancement. A colder air mass will arrive just
behind this front and the first snowflakes of the season are
possible in post-frontal and lake effect showers Sunday night
through Monday. Still too early to dive into any specifics on
potential accumulation and timing/placement of any snow, but
will continue to keep an eye on the forecast in the upcoming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon,
allowing for some ceilings and isolated showers ahead of the
front and clearing conditions behind the front. Some low VFR and
even some MVFR clouds are floating around ahead of the front in
NE OH/NW PA this afternoon, but they should not manifest into a
ceiling. Instead, the ceiling should remain at mid-levels around
10 kft. Rain is isolated in nature; despite radar returns, the
only terminal terminal with a chance at any prolonged rain is
KERI, but visibility should remain VFR. The front will exit the
area by this evening with clearing conditions for all terminals.
Strong southwest winds ahead of the front will become west
behind the front. The wind flavor this afternoon will be gusts
of 25 to 30 kts. Winds tonight will slowly diminish with gusts
dissipating after sunset. Some mid-level clouds will enter late
Tuesday morning with high pressure building from the south.

Outlook...Non-VFR in showers and gusty winds are possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night and again on Friday. Another
system will likely bring non-VFR conditions for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the lake this afternoon, with a strong
period of winds in association with this frontal passage
yielding unsettled/hazardous marine conditions. Winds will
quickly increase out of the southwest this morning ahead of the
front, with these southwest winds peaking at 20-30kt late this
morning into this afternoon...up to 35kt east of Conneaut.
Winds will veer more west-northwest late this afternoon and
evening, and after perhaps a brief lull will again peak at
20-30kt this evening, with briefly 30-35kt east of Avon Point
(greatest potential for 35kt gales this evening will again be
east of Conneaut). Gusts to 40kt are possible during both
windows of stronger winds, especially east of Conneaut. Waves
will peak at 3 to 6 feet west of the Islands and 6 to 11 feet
east of the Islands late this morning through this evening. The
strong southwesterlies ahead of the front will cause water
levels to fall to near or a bit below the critical mark for safe
navigation of 2 inches below low water datum at Toledo. Winds
will diminish to <15kt west of the Islands by early Tuesday,
with a slower decrease through Tuesday evening farther east as
winds back more west-southwest. Water levels west should
rebound this evening as winds veer and slowly subside.

Ultimately, upgraded the Gale Watch for the open waters in PA
and NY to a Gale Warning with this package, though it will be a
fairly marginal gale. Expanded the warning to include the
nearshore PA waters, as the gradually veering winds will push
the largest waves towards the shoreline. The Low Water Advisory
and remainder of the Small Craft Advisories remain as posted,
with Small Craft Advisories expiring west-east on Tuesday.

It will be an unsettled week on the lake. After a brief lull
late Tuesday into Tuesday night another sharp cold front crosses
the lake on Wednesday. The low pressure tracking to our north in
association with this cold front has trended stronger in recent
model guidance. Brisk southwest winds ahead of the front will
whip northwest behind it, with 20-30kt peak sustained winds
currently in the forecast and gale probabilities increasing in
NBM guidance to 30-50% east of the Islands. Small craft
headlines will be needed Wednesday into Wednesday night, with
gales and low water issues also possible with stronger solutions.
The next low pressure and cold front move through the region
Friday and Friday night. This will bring additional unsettled
weather and potential for renewed headlines after a brief break.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144.
     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ147-148.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ149-169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sullivan