008
FXUS61 KCLE 091333
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits this morning. A low pressure system from the
west brings precipitation later Wednesday through Thursday, and
will be slow to exit Friday. High pressure builds in from the
west for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 AM Update...
The forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were
needed with this update outside of making small adjustments to
afternoon PoPs based on newer high res guidance.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure over the southern Great Lakes quickly shifts east
while a gradually amplifying 500mb trough axis moves eastward
through the Mississippi Valley. Surface low pressure develops in
response with a warm front extending to the southeast of the
CWA. 290K isentropic lift brings precipitation in to the CWA
after 17Z today, west to east as the system approaches. Low
dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s will create a wetbulbing
situation as the lower levels will require saturation time, and
thus a cooling effect with the evaporation on the front edge.
May see a rain/snow mix as a result, and the further east it
gets where temperatures struggle to warm today to begin with,
light snow may persist for a few hours into the overnight period
as temperatures drop back towards freezing. Surface low will
pass through the CWA Thursday morning with a cold front trailing
and back into northerly flow Thursday evening. Expecting a
third to a half inch of rain, with some of that coming as likely
non accumulating snow for NW PA. System will struggle to exit
as the upper trough over the deep south amplifies. 40s today,
30s tonight, and upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moving across Lake Erie will gradually continue to
shift east Thursday night, allowing for lingering showers across the
area. The bulk of showers should be along and east of I-71 as drier
air pushes across the western counties. Flow around the low will
result in CAA on the backside of the low and overnight temperatures
again falling into the mid to upper 30s. The modeled temperature
profile suggests that precipitation should remain as all rain,
however if the center of the low shifts south, there is a potential
for some snow showers to mix in Thursday night.

On Friday, a secondary low will develop near the mid-Atlantic Coast
in association with a deepening upper level trough. Models suggest
ample moisture wrapping around this low pressure center, which
combined with upper level support will present a chance of showers
across the far eastern counties until this low shifts east. Models
diverge in the timing of when this low will push off the East Coast,
with the GFS being the biggest outlier and keeping the low over the
Mid-Atlantic through Saturday night. Given this was the outlier,
opted to follow trends with other models that suggest high pressure
and an associated ridge building over the area Saturday afternoon
into the overnight hours. This will allow PoPs to end by Saturday
night and remain dry through the overnight hours.

With the presence of these lows and a persistent flow with a
northerly component, temperatures will remain below average with
highs on Friday climbing into the mid to upper 40s before warming
slightly on Saturday into the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows
will remain in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will linger across the area into Monday, allowing for
a dry period. Decreased moisture will also allow for peaks of
sunshine on Sunday before clouds return on Monday ahead of another
low pressure system that moves towards the Great Lakes region. There
is notable model divergence in the placement and timing of this
surface low and how deep the upper level trough pushes south across
the central US. Given uncertainty, opted to add chance PoPs to the
forecast beginning Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday, but
this will need to continue to be monitored for better agreement in
timing of frontal passages across the area.

Spring returns in the long term period with highs climbing into the
mid 50s to low 60s before warming into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Monday. There is a potential for a cool down back into the 50s on
Tuesday, but that will be highly dependent on the progression of the
aforementioned low. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low pressure system will bring precipitation in from the west
later today, moving west to east into the area. Precipitation is
primarily rain, but the leading edge, especially into NW PA,
could be light non accumulating snow. Ceilings lower through the
period, and once precipitation begins, will take a couple hours
to reach MVFR, and then eventually IFR. IFR will linger through
the end of the TAF period. IFR is also possible at times in RA,
but for the most part, going with MVFR visibilities here.
Southeast winds 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with rain Thursday, then lingering
low level clouds into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie as high
pressure persist over the region. This afternoon, winds on the
backside of the departing high will become southwesterly at 5-10
knots. A low pressure is expected to track near Lake Erie which will
result in winds becoming easterly at 10-15 knots tonight, slowly
shifting around the low to become northwesterly at 10-15 knots
Thursday night. A secondary low is expected to develop near the Mid-
Atlantic Coast on Friday, keeping winds from the northwest at 5-10
knots through Saturday. By late Saturday, high pressure will become
established over Lake Erie resulting in variable winds at 5-10 knots
through Sunday as the center of the high shifts across the area. On
Monday, another low begins to develop over the Upper Midwest, allow
for winds to shift to the southwest at 10-15 knots ahead of a cold
front.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday afternoon into
Friday, but will be highly dependent on the track of the low and how
strong the gradient is over the lake. Unsettled marine conditions
may continue into Saturday as prolonged northwest flow of 10-15
knots allows waves to build to 1-3 feet along the southern
lakeshore.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...15/26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04