621
FXUS61 KCLE 101755
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1255 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern in store as a strong low pressure system
moves through the Great Lakes region. The low will drag a cold front
east across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface
trough lingers across Lake Erie on Friday while a weak low pressure
system moves through the Ohio Valley. Another cold front
crosses the region on Saturday before high pressure enters on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening low pressure will glide through the southern Great Lakes
region through the near term. The low will move a cold front east
across the local area during the afternoon/evening today. Initial
burst of precipitation will continue to spread across the region.
Generally expecting mostly rain across the western half of the
forecast area, a rain/snow mix along the I-71 corridor, and wet snow
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The snowfall
forecast has trended slightly higher across Northeast Ohio and have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Geauga and Ashtabula
Counties where 3-6" of snowfall is expected. Expect for a snowy and
slick commute Wednesday morning given the timing of highest snowfall
rates with the greatest impacts expected in the Winter Weather
Advisory area.

A brief dry slot moves overhead late this morning/early afternoon
behind the initial push of precipitation before the cold front pushes
east later this afternoon/evening. Precipitation should transition
to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures drop. Most
of the area will see an inch of less of snowfall with the cold
front through temperatures will rapidly fall which may lead to
some slick spots on roadways during the evening commute.
Snowfall will diminish from west to east with the frontal
passage before lake effect snow develops Wednesday evening
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Generally
anticipate an additional 2-4" across Northeast Ohio, 3-5" across
Crawford County PA, and 5-10" across Erie County PA with lake
effect snowfall Wednesday night through Thursday. Have upgraded
the Winter Weather Advisory for Erie County PA to a Winter Storm
Warning as snowfall amounts through the duration of the event
could exceed 10-14" where lake effect bands persist. Given that
the event is a mix of both synoptic and lake enhanced snow,
opted for a Winter Storm Warning as opposed to a Lake Effect
Snow Warning.

Highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s before lows fall into the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight behind the cold front. Remaining
chilly in the upper 20s on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect snow showers will diminish Thursday night
into Friday morning as a drier airmass and high pressure move
into the region. Another clipper will approach the region from
the northwest while weakening on Friday. The system will graze
the local forecast area to the southwest but can`t rule out
some light snow across southwestern portions of the forecast
area Friday morning. Another low pressure system and associated
cold front will impact the Great Lakes region on Saturday
bringing an additional chance for areawide snow showers
Saturday and lake-effect snow returning Saturday night. Highs
in the upper 20s on Friday fall into the low to mid 20s on
Saturday. Overnight lows in the teens are expected Thursday and
Friday night. Much colder on Saturday night with single digit to
lower 10s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An Arctic airmass will impact the region on Sunday with most
guidance showing 850mb temperatures falling to the -18 to -20C
range. This cold air aloft coupled with fairly saturated mid/low
levels and northwesterly mean layer flow suggest that lake effect
snow mentioned above will likely continue into the day on Sunday
before high pressure glides through the region on Monday. Highs in
the teens to low 20s with chilly overnight lows in the single digits
Sunday night. The high will exit to the east through early next week
allowing for temperatures to moderate into the upper 20s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
A brief lull in rain/snow is likely across most of the area at
the very start of the TAF period, however a strong cold front
will enter the northwestern fringe of the CWA within the next
couple of hours and push a burst of snow southeast across the
local area between about 19Z and 00Z. Snow will likely end at
KTOL/KFDY/KMFD near or shortly after 00Z with lake-enhanced snow
showers continuing across NE OH/NW PA through midnight. Lake-
enhanced precip may dwindle a bit late tonight, however a
primary band of moderate lake-enhanced snow will likely develop
downwind from Lake Huron somewhere in NE OH/NW PA overnight
before lifting northeast as flow backs to the west by early
Thursday morning. This could push the band of snow and lower
visibilities over KERI at some point between 04Z and 09Z
Thursday. Additional lake effect snow showers will most likely
develop Thursday morning, resulting in increasing snow chances
across the remainder of the snowbelt region (including KCLE and
KYNG).

Flight conditions will be somewhat variable across the area
tonight through 18Z Thursday with VFR likely developing at
persisting at KTOL and ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR
outside of lake effect snow/clouds. Terminals that experience
lake effect snow/clouds will generally have MVFR conditions in
lower ceilings/visibilities, however there may be periods of IFR
conditions in any localized bands of moderate snow.

Winds will shift from the west to the northwest behind the cold
front this evening and breezy conditions with sustained winds to
12 to 17 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots are expected through
this evening. Winds will diminish slightly to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 20 to 25 knots tonight before becoming more
westerly and diminishing to 8 to 14 knots with gusts to around
20 knots during the day Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected in periods of lake effect snow
through Thursday night. Additional non-VFR is likely in periods
of snow as a series of systems cross the area Friday through
the weekend, best chance across NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine weather conditions are expected to continue through the
end of this week and into the weekend. A strong clipper low pressure
system is currently moving through the Great Lakes region and will
deepen to 988 mb as it tracks north of Lake Erie later today. Winds
will increase from the south and southwest this morning 25 to 35
knots for most of the basin of Lake Erie. Gale warnings will take
into effect at 4 AM and continue through this evening. Waves in the
open water will build 10 to 16 feet with occasional waves up to
20 feet. With the southwesterly Gales today, water levels may
drop to near the critical mark for safe marine navigation on the
western basin of Lake Erie. We will keep an eye on trends and
monitor these lower water levels for the potential of a Low
Water Advisory later today.

After the strong low pressure system passes by, a strong cold front
will move across the lake with northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots
tonight. Waves in the open water this evening will start out 8 to 15
but gradually subside to 5 to 9 feet late tonight. Additional Small
Craft Advisories will be needed and replace the Gale Warning when
they expire this evening. SCA conditions will continue for Thursday
into Thursday night with west-northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots and
waves 4 to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet on Thursday.
Waves will gradually start to subside late Thursday night
between 3 and 5 feet.

A brief break in between weather system will arrive on Friday.
Southwest winds 15 to 30 knots will develop on Friday into Friday
night ahead of the next approaching clipper system. We may have a
brief lull in SCA conditions on Friday but will likely see winds and
waves ramping back up ahead of the next system. Another strong cold
front will arrive on Saturday with west to northwest winds 15 to 30
knots and waves building higher again. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...77