138
FXUS61 KCLE 122346
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Monday night. A cold front with minimal precipitation
passes Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure returns through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive coastal low pressure system continues to sling cloud cover
westward into the eastern zones of the CWA. There are a few echoes
on radar with this, and so added some very low end POPs in the next
few hours despite the longshot of anything measuring in terms of
precipitation. Upper low over western NY state will linger for the
next 24hrs before drifting southward and becoming absorbed by the
coastal low. Simultaneously, high pressure influences from Atlantic
Canada keeping the western half of the CWA largely clear and dry,
which will continue for the duration of the near term forecast
period. As the aforementioned upper low exits, upper ridging builds
in from the Texas Gulf Coast region. Western zones could see patchy
fog tonight in northwest OH. Temperatures slightly above normal
through the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A late Tuesday/Tuesday night cold front, mainly dry, brings in
another Canadian airmass for the middle of the week. Tuesday
high temperatures still reach the upper 60s to mid 70s prior to
passage, but fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday. Cannot
rule out some isolated showers Tuesday night in the wake of the
cold front, mainly over the lake and along the lakeshore, but
again, most locations will be dry. Dewpoints drop again and
Wednesday night overnight lows in mainly clear and calm
conditions for radiational cooling bring the frost threat back
into play for northwest PA down into north central OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slowly tracks east of the CWA after Thursday with an
upper ridge moving in from the west, allowing for a gradual warming
trend heading into the weekend. An intermountain west upper low will
move into the northern plains region, and into the Canadian
prairies. Warm sector should find its way into the CWA for Saturday,
with dewpoints, temperatures, and POPs all on the increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The local area continues to be influenced by high pressure
extending from Quebec. This is maintaining a generally dry
airmass with easterly flow across Lake Erie. The greatest
impact during the TAF period is the potential for fog at TOL
towards morning as moisture off the lake is trapped beneath a
low level inversion. Did include a window of MVFR visibilites
after 09Z and IFR with fog around sunrise. There is a lower
chance of restricted visibility to extend to FDY.

Besides the potential for fog, we are seeing some cloud moving
westward towards the area from the coastal low off the
Carolinas. Sct-bkn clouds of 4-8K feet near CAK at the
beginning of the period will tend to scatter out towards MFD.
Additional cloud cover is likely to spread into PA and eastern
Ohio on Monday with MVFR possible at ERI on Monday afternoon.

Winds will tend to be easterly at 5 knots or less overnight,
except locally stronger at ERI. CLE/ERI/and YNG will see winds
back to northerly on Monday afternoon.

Outlook...Odds favor widespread dry weather and VFR through
this Friday. Low potential for patchy fog will persist at
TOL/FDY Tuesday and Wednesday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge extends from the Canadian Maritimes to the Lake Erie region
through Monday night. Simultaneously, a low wobbles NNE`ward from
near the NC coast to Atlantic waters east of the Delmarva Peninsula.
ENE`erly to SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots over Lake Erie are
expected through tonight. NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15
knots on Monday become N`erly to NE`erly Monday night as a cold
front approaches from the western Great Lakes. Note: winds will
flirt with 20 knots at times this evening and again Monday afternoon
through evening due to the interaction between the aforementioned
ridge and low. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected through
Monday night, but due in part to forecast fetch, waves up to 4 to 5
feet are expected in the open U.S. waters of the central basin
through about midnight tonight and in U.S. waters between roughly
Ripley and Willowick Monday afternoon into the evening. Stay tuned
for forecast updates, which may prompt the issuance of a Small
Craft Advisory between roughly Ripley and Willowick.

The cold front sweeps generally ESE`ward across Lake Erie on
Tuesday. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the U.S./Canada
border area in the Great Plains and eventually the northwestern
Great Lakes through Tuesday night. The cold front passage will cause
N`erly to NE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to shift to NW`erly to
N`erly. However, the NW`erly to N`erly winds should flirt with 20
knots at times Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Waves of
mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but waves should build to as
large as 4 to 5 feet in U.S. waters of the central basin Tuesday
night.

The aforementioned ridge will continue to affect Lake Erie on
Wednesday through Thursday as the embedded high pressure center
moves from the northwestern Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes.
Winds around 5 to 15 knots should vary between NW`erly and NE`erly
on Wednesday through Wednesday night, but flirt with 20 knots at
times through the first few predawn hours of Thursday morning. Waves
of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 to 5 footers
are forecast in the U.S. waters of the central basin on Wednesday
into Wednesday night. During the daylight hours of Thursday, winds
are expected to ease to around 5 to 10 knots and become variable in
direction. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected.

During Thursday night through Friday, the ridge will begin to exit
generally E`ward from Lake Erie as the embedded high pressure center
moves from the eastern Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic region.
This will allow a warm front to drift N`ward across Lake Erie
Thursday night into Friday. Primarily E`erly to SE`erly winds around
5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S`erly to SW`erly
following the front`s passage. Waves should remain 3 feet or
less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka