733
FXUS61 KCLE 281118
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves through today and tonight. Cool high pressure
then dominates the weather pattern through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front dropping southward through the Great Lakes this morning
and eventually into our CWA today and tonight will be a
reinforcement of the cooler airmass that has resided over the region
for the pasty few days. Ample frontogenetic forcing to kick off
convection after 15Z or so first beginning in the northwester zones.
as surface winds veer from south to southwest, should get a late
surge of dewpoints that will push the 60F mark from the starting
point in the mid 40s this morning. Will also get a modest low level
jet setting up, helping with an increase in the dewpoints in the low
levels as well. Will have to overcome some mid level dry air at the
onset, and also an inverted V vertical profile for the boundary
layer. CAPE is fairly limited in both time and magnitude through the
day/evening hours. For convection that occurs, given the
aforementioned conditions, gusty winds could be an issue with
showers/storms that develop from fry air entrainment and the dry sub
cloud layer.

Despite the increase in the dewpoints, likely not to get much in the
way of any warm air advection prior to frontal passage, and
expecting another well below normal temperature day with low 70s the
norm for the CWA. Post frontal cool again tonight, but cloudy
conditions and the dewpoints not yet falling keep temperatures
largely in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight. Friday will be the
coolest day of the forecast with mostly 60s except for the far
southwestern zones where 70F might be achieved, while NW PA has
trouble getting out of the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure retains its hold on the southern Great
Lakes heading into the weekend. The forecast is largely dry,
although some lake effect sprinkles could be possible in northwest
PA Friday night. This will be a rather chilly night across the
region with widespread 40s with only the immediate lakeshore areas
hanging on to the lower 50s. Likely will not hit record lows,
however. Through the rest of the weekend, it will be all about
airmass modification with decent amounts of daily insolation while
the upper level low drifts eastward into Atlantic Canada.
Temperatures back to the low to mid 70s by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Even though the upper level low shifts to the east, still will not
be able to shake the dominant troughing aloft over the eastern third
of the CONUS. Temperatures will continue to moderate heading into
next week, generally in the 75-80F range into mid week. Forecast
remains dry until mid week when the next approaching upper low/cold
front brings POPs back into the fold.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with deterioration to
non-VFR vsbys and/or ceilings possible later this afternoon and
evening in showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold
front. The highest confidence for thunderstorms will be at TAF
sites closer to the lakeshore (TOL/CLE/ERI). Coverage appears a
bit more scattered further to the west at TOL, so opted for
prob30 at this time. Meanwhile, a line of showers and
thunderstorms are more likely to impact CLE/ERI, so included IFR
tempo mention with an abrupt wind shift up to 30 knots
possible. Outside of of sites along the lakeshore, confidence in
direct non-VFR impacts remain lower, though there will be
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two
in the vicinity later this afternoon and evening. Some guidance
is hinting at ceilings lowering to MVFR (and perhaps isolated
IFR) behind the front later this evening and overnight,
particularly at southern sites.

Winds are generally favoring a south to southwest direction
this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the
southwest later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with
gusts of 20 to 22 knots possible. Winds will abruptly shift
towards the northwest and north behind a cold front later this
evening and overnight, 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger tonight through Friday in lake
effect clouds. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will return across Lake Erie today as
elevated west to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of
an approaching cold front. Opted to add Lorain to the Beach Hazards
Statement given the slight westerly component to the winds.
Similarly, added the marine zone off of Erie, OH to the Small Craft
Advisory with winds approaching 20 knots. In addition, thunderstorms
are also possible along and ahead of the cold front which could
result in strong wind gusts around of 35 to perhaps 40 knots at
times. Winds will abruptly shift to the north behind a cold front
later this evening and overnight, remaining elevated, 15 to 20
knots. Marine conditions will improve by late tonight into Friday
morning as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
relatively light north to northeast flow of around 10 knots into
early next week.

Waterspouts are also possible in showers and thunderstorms through
tonight along and ahead the cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn