933
FXUS61 KCLE 041746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the region today and
Saturday. Low pressure will track northeast through the Upper Great
Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, pulling a cold front south across
the area through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge extends across the Upper Midwest today and will
build east overhead on Saturday. Much of the area will experience
sunny skies for the Independence Day Holiday. A decent spread in
temperatures can be expected from west to east with highs near 90 in
NW Ohio and 80 in NW Pennsylvania. A concern for a few thunderstorms
does develop in NW Ohio by late afternoon and early evening. ML CAPE
gradient of 500-1500 J/kg will be over SE Michigan this afternoon.
Low level convergence from southwesterly return flow and lake breeze
boundaries may be sufficient to kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorm activity upstream. This also aligns with an eastward
advancing theta-e gradient. Northwesterly flow aloft may direct
activity into NW Ohio late this afternoon into this evening and have
raised pops to 30-50 percent towards Toledo with decreasing chances
south along the I-75 corridor. Several of the CAMs have also trended
upward with coverage of showers and thunderstorms in SE Michigan and
NW Ohio.

Activity is expected to decrease towards sunset. Did continue with a
20 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm eastward across Lake
Erie and sneaking into areas downwind of the lake late tonight into
Saturday morning as the moisture advection continues eastward.
Overall better forcing is likely to be farther north across Lake
Huron and into Canada.

For Saturday, a lake breeze is likely to develop off eastern Lake
Erie and may serve as a focus for a few stray showers or
thunderstorms. The 00Z/04 run of the 3km NAM may be a bit
overdone with coverage of storms as it indicates dewpoints in
the low 70s which are several degrees too high. With that said,
surface based CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg are possible out
ahead of an expanding capping inversion that will strengthen
over western portions of the area. Have included 20-40 percent
pops across the snowbelt areas and south towards Meadville and
Warren during the afternoon. The heat continues to expand
eastward with portions of the area exceeding 90 degrees and heat
index values starting to creep back up into the mid and upper
90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will be overhead at the start of the period
then shift to the East Coast. Sunday is expected to be the hottest
day as temperatures in most areas reach or exceed 90 degrees and
dewpoints are creeping back up. Low pressure will track east across
the Upper Great Lakes ahead of a shortwave trough tracking into the
region. The pre-frontal trough will reach NW Ohio during the
afternoon and could start to see thunderstorms developing. There are
some timing differences between the models that will need to be
worked out but have chance pops expanding east to about the I-71
corridor during the afternoon. With this boundary settling into the
area Sunday night, could see some continued shower and thunderstorm
activity overnight. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage on
Monday with the slow moving front draped overhead. PW values will be
near 2 inches and locally heavy rain will be expected with
thunderstorms, especially if training along the boundary occurs. A
second and stronger shortwave trough looks to finally push the front
south of the area on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be overhead behind the front on Tuesday.
Conditions should be more comfortable with temperatures dropping
back to near normal values and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Most
of the area can expect dry conditions with stable air. The pattern
is expected to become more active again towards the middle of next
week with a broad trough in place across eastern Canada and
shortwave energy moving through the Ohio Valley. The shortwaves will
be hard to time and adjustments to pops are likely. Overall a
return to scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely for
mid-week with temperatures hovering near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, W`erly to NW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 18Z/Sat as a ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, the ridge exits slowly SE`ward and will
allow a warm front to sweep N`ward through our region between
~06Z/Sat and ~12Z/Sat. Primarily VFR and fair weather are
expected through the TAF period. However, residual outflow from
thunderstorms that have since dissipated over/near southern Lake
Michigan may trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms
over/near the MI/OH border in our region between ~20Z/Fri and
~00Z/Sat. This includes KTOL. These storms may produce brief and
erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. In addition, a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms should develop ahead of one
of the aforementioned disturbances aloft this evening, persist
generally E`ward across much of Lake Erie tonight, and impact
far-NE OH and NW PA between ~08Z/Sat and ~14Z/Sat. This includes
KERI. Showers and storms should be accompanied by brief MVFR to
IFR.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, our regional surface
winds trend variable in direction and around 5 knots through
~12Z/Sat. However, N`erly to NE`erly surface winds around 5 to
10 knots and associated with a Lake Erie lake breeze are
expected to impact KCLE and KERI until ~00Z/Sat. After ~12Z/Sat,
our regional surface winds are expected to become S`erly to
SW`erly around 5 to 10 knots. However, after ~14Z/Sat, the
development of another Lake Erie lake breeze should cause these
winds to veer to WSW`erly along and within several miles of the
lakeshore, along and roughly east of the longitude to KBKL.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday through this Wednesday, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Wednesday. A high pressure
ridge exits slowly SE`ward from the Lake Erie region through
Sunday, which will allow a warm front to sweep N`ward across
Lake Erie tonight. A lake breeze will dissipate early this
evening and give way to primarily E`erly to SE`erly winds, which
will then veer to S`erly to SW`erly overnight tonight with the
warm front passage. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds then
persist through Sunday as Lake Erie remains along the
northwestern flank of the departing ridge. SW`erly winds should
veer gradually to N`erly during Sunday evening through Monday
evening as a cold front drifts SE`ward across the lake and is
followed by another ridge building from the Upper Midwest. Winds
should become variable in direction on Tuesday through
Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge eventually exits E`ward
and a weak trough begins to overspread Lake Erie from the west
on Wednesday. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday and Wednesday due
to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka