042
FXUS61 KCLE 221801
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will depart the Ohio Valley today and a surface
ridge will enter by this afternoon. A low pressure system will
pass northeast of the area Sunday. High pressure will return to
the region for Monday. A strong low pressure system will target
the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and drizzle remain across the area this
morning as low pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley. The
window for rain will quickly diminish from northwest to
southeast overnight as the upper level trough axis departs to
the east. A surface ridge will be able to build into the region
today behind the surface low and dry conditions will be
expected. Temperatures will be cooler than normal behind the low
pressure system today with temperatures steady in the 40s. Dry
weather will continue tonight with passing clouds. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

For Sunday, an upper trough will dig into the northeast United
States and a low pressure system will follow it southeast
through eastern Canada. The southern periphery of this system
may allow for a glancing blow of a rain/snow mix, but areas
further east will be favored, given the track of the system.
Will at least have a 20-30 PoP for NW PA. Temperatures will
remain on the cooler side of normal for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday night into Monday, dry weather is expected with high
pressure moving through the region. The surface high will be
east of the area on Monday and allow for some return flow to
get temperatures back toward normal in the 50s. The next weather
system will approach from the west on Monday night and some rain
could get into the area, but the main impacts from the system
will be Tuesday and beyond with widespread rainfall expected on
Tuesday. There remains some spread for the final track of this
mid-week low pressure system but the trends are pointing more
toward the main low pressure system targeting the northern Great
Lakes on Tuesday. For the local area, the trending solution is
that a shortwave trough will move overhead on Tuesday ahead of
this low and be the support for rain. There should be some good
moisture transport ahead of this shortwave on Monday night into
Tuesday that could allow for rain totals in the 0.25-0.75" range
through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast period will feature a flip back to cold
and likely some snow around the Thanksgiving holiday. For
Wednesday, the trending solution is for the surface cold front
to move through the region, which will bring one final synoptic push
of rain (and likely to snow) with some increased winds with a 40
kt low level jet moving through with the surface front. Will
need to watch winds on Wednesday - It is unlikely that there
will be a need for a wind headline but it could be a blustery
period with the frontal passage.

Behind this front, the lake effect snow machine will be back
with 850 mb temperatures returning to -10 C by Thursday. Plenty
of uncertainty with the lake effect setup being 6-8 days out yet
and the placement of the main upper trough still varying between
over the Great Lakes vs. over western Quebec will have
implications for main band placement. If the main system is due
north and closer to the area, snow would favor western NY,
whereas a more displaced trough would allow for snow to favor
PA/OH more. The pattern is trending a touch less cold as time
ticks closer, which would limit some of the lake effect
potential. Regardless, it is worthwhile to place more likely
PoPs into the forecast for Thursday night through Friday for far
NE OH and NW PA. This period will certainly need to be monitored
for holiday and travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF cycle, with the pockets
of MVFR currently affecting KCLE, KMFD, and KCAK expected to
scatter out by mid afternoon. A fast moving clipper system will
pass through the northern Great Lakes tonight and through the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday. This will lift a warm front across
the area this evening before the trailing cold front quickly
sweeps east through all terminals Sunday morning. Mainly dry
conditions are expected, although cannot rule out a few light
showers or sprinkles at KERI between 06 and 12Z, but confidence
was not high enough to put in the TAF. The main impact will be
wind shifts. Winds will become light SW this evening behind the
warm front before quickly veering to W to WNW Sunday morning
behind the cold front and increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts of
20-25 knots are likely at times through the day Sunday.

Outlook...VFR is favored through Monday before non-VFR chances
return Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds of 5-10 knots this morning will gradually become
southwesterly by tonight as a weak warm front associated with a
low over Ontario move east across Lake Erie. An increased
gradient associated with the surface trough will increase
southwest winds to 15-20 knots ahead of the cold front. Behind
the boundary on Sunday, winds will shift to northwesterly at
20-25 knots resulting in waves building to 4-6 feet along the
southern shore of Lake Erie. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed for much of Sunday. High pressure build
east late Sunday through Monday, resulting in variable winds of
5-10 knots. Another low pressure system will impact the region
for the middle of the week as a warm front moves north on
Tuesday followed by a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Behind the departing front on Wednesday, westerly winds are
expected to increase to 20-30 knots. This will once again make
marine conditions across Lake Erie hazardous. During this time,
will have to monitor western basin water levels as well for any
low water potential. A surface trough will linger through
Friday, keeping winds and waves elevated across all basins.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...04