037
FXUS61 KCLE 091954
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to drift to the east through Friday. A low
pressure system will move southeast across the region Saturday into
Sunday and high pressure will build in behind to start next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will persist with surface high pressure drifting
eastward through Friday night. The surface high will be positioned
to the east over New York state and New England and will provide
easterly flow tonight into early Friday before shifting out of the
south during the day Friday. With the high overhead, clear skies,
and generally light to calm winds overnight, the area will be
susceptible to radiational cooling and will drop down into the mid
to low 30s. For the majority of the area outside of the lakeshore
counties, a Frost Advisory is active for tomorrow morning. There may
be some isolated spots in sheltered areas within the Frost Advisory,
mainly in the south-central counties of the CWA, that could drop
below freezing as well, but not expecting it to be widespread. For
this forecast package, we upgraded inland Ashtabula, Trumbull, and
Mahoning in Ohio and Crawford, PA to a Freeze warning. Those areas
have the greatest potential given the light winds and radiational
cooling to drop below freezing. As for Erie County PA, there will be
a short window after midnight that a freeze will be possible, as low
temperatures will drop to around 32F, but winds will start to
increase out of the southeast a few hours before sunrise and
conditions will become unfavorable.

With the previously mentioned flow shifting out of south to
southeast with the high building off to the east, temperatures will
warm slightly with the high Friday being in the mid 60s and
overnight lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the high departs to the east a low pressure system will move
southeastward from Lake Superior through the area Saturday through
Sunday. The overall system still has it weakening as it enters the
region, though PoP chances and overall QPF has increased to around a
half an inch. The bulk of the rainfall will be across the eastern
half of the CWA and decrease further west. Models have shown the
system slowing down moving into Sunday as a coastal low pressure
system moves up the east coast over the weekend. Though the bulk of
precipitation will have ended, will need to keep an eye on this
interaction as it may keep some precipitation across the far eastern
portions of the area through Sunday night. Temperatures Saturday
will be slightly muted with the rainfall and cloud cover with highs
in the mid 60s and rebound a little on Sunday to the upper 60s.
Overnight lows over the weekend will be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry, quiet pattern returns for the long term as upper level ridging
builds to the south and high pressure builds in. Only thing to
mention pattern wise, would be a low pressure system moving to the
north of the region that could drag a cold front across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, no widespread precipitation
is expected. Temperatures to start the week will be around normal
for this time of year and may fall a few degrees midweek behind the
aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Aloft, a ridge axis moves generally E`ward from the western
Great Lakes to New England through 18Z/Fri as a trough axis
moves generally SE`ward from near the SK/MB border to the
western Great Lakes region. In response, NW`erly flow over
northern OH and NW PA backs to W`erly region-wide after 06Z/Fri.
At the surface, a ridge exits slowly E`ward before a weak warm
front sweeps N`ward through our region between ~13Z/Fri and
~16Z/Fri. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the
southern Appalachians and vicinity through 18Z/Fri.

Our regional surface winds veer from NE`erly to SE`erly with
the approach of the warm front, while the front`s passage will
cause winds to veer to S`erly to SSW`erly. Surface wind speeds
remain around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period. Occasional
gusts up to 20 knots are possible through ~23Z/Thurs.

VFR and dry weather are expected through the TAF period. Few to
scattered cumuli are expected until ~23Z/Thurs and after
~14Z/Fri. Scattered lake-effect stratocumuli amidst ENE`erly
mean low-level flow should stream generally WSW`ward over/downwind
of Lake Erie and impact portions of NW OH until ~22Z/Thurs.
After that time, mean low-level flow should veer to E`erly and
eventually to SSW`erly through the remainder of the TAF period.
The cumuli and stratocumuli will have bases near 4kft AGL.

Outlook...Mainly VFR and dry weather are expected through this
Tuesday. However, isolated showers are possible Friday night
through Tuesday, while isolated thunderstorms are possible this
weekend. Expect non-VFR with showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge exits slowly E`ward from Lake Erie before a weak warm front
sweeps N`ward across the lake Friday morning. Behind the warm front,
a ridge builds from the southern Appalachians and vicinity through
Friday night. Ahead of the front, NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5
to 15 knots veer to SE`erly. Behind the front, winds veer to S`erly
to SW`erly and remain mainly 5 to 15 knots. However, winds should
flirt with 20 knots at times Friday night, as the building ridge
interacts with a low that should drift SE`ward across the northern
Great Lakes.

The aforementioned low should drift farther SE`ward to the Lake Erie
region on Saturday and then devolve into a residual trough over and
near Lake Erie and the Upper OH Valley on Saturday night through
Sunday. The low`s trailing cold front should drift E`ward across the
western basin of Lake Erie on Saturday before dissipating over the
central basin by Sunday. Waterspouts are possible with lake-enhanced
showers and thunderstorms along the cold front on Saturday, but
uncertainty regarding the amount of lake-induced instability
precludes explicit mention of waterspouts in our marine forecast at
this time. By Sunday night, a ridge should begin to build from the
central Great Lakes. In response to this surface weather pattern
evolution, S`erly to SW`erly winds should become variable in
direction on Saturday. On Saturday night through Sunday night, winds
are expected to vary between NE`erly and SE`erly. Wind speeds will
primarily be around 5 to 15 knots, but should flirt with 20 knots at
times Sunday night, as the building ridge interacts with the
residual trough.

On Monday through Tuesday, ridging should persist over Lake Erie as
one high pressure center dissipates in vicinity of the Canadian
Maritimes and another high pressure center moves from southern AB
toward southern MB. Accordingly, winds around 5 to 15 knots should
vary between mainly NE`erly and NW`erly. Waves of 3 feet or less are
expected. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected during the
forecast period. However, waves as large as 4 to 5 feet are expected
in open U.S. waters of the eastern basin and especially central
basin Friday night into Saturday morning and Sunday evening into
Sunday night given forecast surface wind directions/speeds and
fetch.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006-008-
     010-013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ014-023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka