174
FXUS61 KCLE 041401
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1001 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become centered over the area through this
afternoon. Low pressure moving northeast out of the Mississippi
Valley will move a warm front north late Friday evening into the
overnight hours. Another disturbance impacts the area on Saturday
into Sunday as a cold front pushes east. Another low pressure
approaches the area from the northwest on Monday before high
pressure returns Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10:00 AM Update:
We are actually seeing a nice dry break with some sunshine this
morning...do not adjust your televisions. This is a short-lived
break, with another shortwave riding along the stalled frontal
boundary tonight bringing another round of rain and thunder.

Based on trends on most recent hi-res models, am concerned
about a wave of elevated convection dropping a swath of 2-3" of
rain tonight running west-southwest to east-northeast across
parts of the area, particularly west of I-77. The ground is
saturated and rivers are running high...this would be
problematic both in terms of potential instances of flash
flooding tonight and river rises into Saturday. Will be closely
evaluating trends on incoming guidance and upstream radar/obs
with an eye to this threat over the next few hours.

Previous Discussion...
An active pattern persists through the near term period as multiple
disturbances look to track along the leading edge of a deepening
upper level trough over the western US. The positioning of this
trough is allowing for a consistent stream of moisture from the Gulf
north through the Ohio River Valley with PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches
spanning that entire area. In addition, a strong upper level jet and
areas of enhanced vorticity with the aforementioned shortwave
disturbances will allow for upper level support for shower
development through the period. The timing of associated surface
features and boundaries will be key to when the greatest potential
for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms will be.

Currently, high pressure is building over the area behind a
departing cold front to the southeast. Weak forcing on the front
edge of the high has allowed for scattered light rain showers to
occur over the far southern counties this morning. These showers
will continue to push southeast of the area over the coming hours,
allowing for the aforementioned high to become centered over the
area for much of today. This will allow for dry conditions, although
lingering moisture should keep cloudy conditions around.

This evening, a warm front associated with a surface low moving
northeast along the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River
Valley will result in showers gradually spreading north across the
area once again. Coinciding with the movement of this front, a
strong LLJ near 45-50 knots will surge north and provide additional
support for shower and thunderstorm development. Overall instability
seems to be limited, especially given the diurnally unfavorable
timing, however cannot rule out some thunder occurring across the
southern counties tonight into early Saturday. As the parent low
tracks through the central Great Lakes on Saturday, a cold front
will drape southwest somewhere across the area, although the exact
location diverges a bit amongst models. Ahead of this boundary,
increasing temperatures, continued moisture advection, weak
instability and strong shear will result in a risk for the
development of scattered strong to severe storms. The primary threat
with any storm development will be strong winds and large hail. SPC
has highlighted an area extending from near Youngstown OH southwest
to Marion OH in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather.

The more notable concern with this entire system late Friday through
Saturday is the potential for flooding across the area, especially
in locations that see multiple rounds of heavy precipitation. As the
aforementioned warm front lifts north Friday night into Saturday,
deepening warm cloud layers and increasing PWAT values will result
in heavy rainfall across the area with an additional 1-1.25"
expected across the entire area. There are expected to be locally
higher amounts across southern counties with areas of total QPF over
1.5" possible. To highlight these higher PWAT values and potential
impacts, WPC has highlighted the southern counties in a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall. In addition, areas along and west of I-77
remain under a Flood Watch into Sunday to account for the potential
river flooding in addition to localized flash and urban flooding.
Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates.

High temperatures today will be a bit cooler, only climbing into the
mid-50s for much of the area, with slightly cooler temperatures
possible along the lakeshore. Temperatures tonight will have little
change in areas where the warm front lifts north, leaving the
northwestern portion of the CWA the only locations with a notable
cool down into the low to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will climb into
he mid to upper 60s along and east of I-71 with temperatures to the
west expected to remain in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will finally push the baroclinic zone that has
affected the CWA for the past several days to the south and east,
thanks to the main energy from the upper level low finally ejecting
out of the four corners region of the southwest. Some lingering rain
Saturday night prior to exit and will see the best forcing for this
round of rainfall from 00-06Z Sunday in the low/mid level
frontogenesis. Should see around an inch of rain for the southern
zones from 00Z Sunday onward, with the bulk of the rain out of the
area by 12Z, representing the last of the significant precipitation
from this pattern. Dry weather quickly moves in for Sunday, but a
chilly day is expected as 850mb temperatures drop below 0C with
surface and low level cold air advection occurring. A late secondary
band of f-gen sets up on the southeastern edge of the CWA after 00Z
Monday producing rain/snow showers due to temperatures in the 30s,
and exiting quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sharp upper trough swings through the Great Lakes with a cold front
Monday, reinforcing the colder air from the Sunday high pressure
system. More cold air advection as 850mb temperatures plummet into
the -10C to -14C range. Surface temperatures in the 45-50F range
Monday before the cold air advection occurs, but falling into the
low to mid 20s Monday night. Precipitation with the cold front and
in the post frontal environment primarily as rain/snow showers
changing to all snow showers Monday night through Tuesday. As of
this issuance, despite the prevailing surface/low level northwest
flow, but a steady stream of moisture does not look as of yet that
it will materialize. So in terms of snowfall and snow amounts, a
couple inches possible in NW PA, and an inch or less westward in NE
OH. Despite the cold air and only 30s for highs Tuesday, sun angle
this time of year will not allow much residence time of snow on the
ground. High pressure moves in late Tuesday night and Wednesday,
quickly exiting to the east and allowing for  quick temperature
modification mid week. Another upper trough/surface low pressure
system expected Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions with ceilings generally between
6-10kft will persist into this afternoon as high pressure
becomes centered over the area. Late this evening and into the
overnight hours, another low pressure disturbance will track
northeast into the area, moving a warm front north across the
area tonight. This system will present the next chance for
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, with diminished
conditions expected. General timing for precipitation onset is
between 21Z today to 00Z Saturday with the far eastern terminals
a bit later. With these showers, heavy rain is possible,
reducing visibilities to 4SM with IFR visibilities possible in
the heaviest showers/storms. In addition, ceilings are expected
to gradually fall to below 1kft around 06Z Saturday, resulting
in IFR conditions sticking around through the remainder of the
period. KCLE may be able to rebound to MVFR heights and
visibilities by 18Z Saturday, but this is highly dependent on
the progression of the system as a whole.

Winds today will remain from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots
ahead of an approaching warm front and associated showers from
the south. Near the end of this period, winds will gradually
begin to shift to the east-southeast at 5-12. Isolated gusts up
to 20 knots are possible along and east of I71, but should not
be widespread or frequent. Near the end of the period at KERI, a
southeast flow should result in localized downsloping
enhancement with winds sustained at 12-15 knots, gusting up to
20 knots. In addition, there may be patchy LLWS especially
across eastern terminals, but models diverge quite a bit in the
strength of the LLJ so opted to not include at this point.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are likely in showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings
continuing into Sunday. Additional non-VFR conditions possible
in rain and snow showers Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast wind 15kts brings western basin wave heights up to 2-4ft,
slightly less further east today. Friday night into Saturday, expect
highly variable wind directions as low pressure/warm front/cold
front affects Lake Erie as it moves through the region with around
15kt winds and wave heights 1-3ft in general. Saturday night into
Sunday, winds out of the north 15-20kts and approaching SCA for the
central basin with 3-4ft waves, easing Sunday night. Another cold
front Monday brings winds back out of the northwest 15-25kts through
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26