125
FXUS61 KCLE 120013
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
813 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure dissolves tonight with high pressure
building from the northeast for Sunday into early next week.
Mainly dry most through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Minor adjustments made to the forecast through Sunday. Added an
isolated shower mention off Lake Erie into Lucas and Ottawa
Counties towards morning as models are highlighting low level convergence
over the western basin.

Then increased cloud cover and added an isolated shower mention
from Youngstown to Akron to Canton for midday on Sunday as
moisture spreads westward between the Carolina low and high
pressure over eastern Quebec. Several high resolution models are
hinting at a chance for diminishing showers to reach the area
and moisture depth looks sufficient.

Previous discussion...A vertically stacked low pressure system
will continue its southeastward drift into New York State this
evening and tonight. This system is characteristic of patchy low
level moisture and dry air above 750mb with also an inverted V
signature in the boundary layer. There is just enough layer RH
at times for forced shower activity, generally closer to the
central area of low pressure. But overall, POPs on the meager
side or the far eastern zones largely relegated to NW PA this
evening and tonight. Patchy sprinkles not out of the question
further west, but will leave POPs out for now over Lake Erie and
along the lakeshore east of the islands. At the same time, an
expansive coastal low pressure system moving northward will be
slinging moisture into PA tonight into Sunday, keeping POPs
along the far eastern border of the CWA into early Sunday.
Low/mid level moisture will get pushed back westward from the
coastal low and its counterclockwise circulation with a weak
inverted surface trough in the vicinity of the lakeshore. Going
to downplay the POPs here as well, but slights may need to come
into play for Sunday in the next forecast as there will be some
vertical cloud development evident during the afternoon hours,
lingering into the Sunday night time frame. Again, the general
story here ultimately is not much precipitation expected out of
this for the next 36 hours. Slightly above normal temperatures
Sunday with upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low pressure system will linger off the mid Atlantic
coast while high pressure builds in from the northeast and upper
level ridging builds in from the Texas Gulf Coast. An upper level
low all the way north in southern Hudson Bay tracking west to east
will bring a cold front through the region Tuesday. Despite the
distance from the main energy of this system, this cold front should
sweep through fairly easily, fairly dry, and with an airmass
changing high pressure system building in its wake. Upper 60s to mid
70s Monday and Tuesday become upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Canadian high pressure system will slowly shift eastward into
the end of the week, allowing for return flow, upper level ridging
once again, and a warm up heading into the weekend. Temperatures
back to slightly above normal values by Saturday. No significant
precipitation expected in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are in place across the area although some
sct/bkn clouds near 4K are located south of Lake Erie from
CLE to TOL. Easterly flow with some convergence could result in
a brief MVFR ceiling at TOL between 11-13Z. The local area
resides on the southern periphery of high pressure over Quebec
but will also see an increase in moisture from the east on
Sunday ahead a strong low moving up the Carolina Coast. Will
allow for a period of mostly cloudy skies around 4-5K to spread
into CLE/CAK/YNG between 13-18Z. An isolated shower can not be
ruled out but coverage and intensity will both be limited so did
not mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise most areas will
see a period of clear skies overnight. Patchy fog can not be
ruled out but the combination of a light wind of 3-5 knots and
increasing clouds towards dawn will likely prevent it at the
terminals.

Light northerly winds of 6 knots or less will veer to easterly
on Sunday at 6-10 knots.

Outlook...Current odds favor dry weather and VFR through this
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds around 5 to 10 knots today become mainly NE`erly to
E`erly around 5 to 15 knots tonight as a residual trough lingers
over Lake Erie and extends from a deepening coastal low that should
continue to wobble NNE`ward offshore the Carolinas. Waves of 3 feet
or less are expected. On Sunday through Monday, a ridge should
extend from the Canadian Maritimes to Lake Erie. NE`erly to ESE`erly
winds freshen to around 10 to 20 knots on Sunday through much of
Sunday evening as the aforementioned ridge interacts with the potent
coastal low that should move farther NNE`ward to Atlantic waters
east of the Delmarva Peninsula and well south of Long Island. Waves
build to as large as 3 to 6 feet in open U.S. waters, but remain 3
feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters given forecast fetch. Late
Sunday evening through nightfall Monday evening, mainly NE`erly to
E`erly winds should ease to around 5 to 15 knots as the
aforementioned ridge weakens while moving little, and the
aforementioned coastal low moves little and begins to weaken
notably. Waves subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak Monday.

NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should back to N`erly
to NW`erly over Lake Erie Monday night. Simultaneously, a
reinforcing ridge should build from the Canadian Prairies as the
coastal low drifts generally E`ward over the Atlantic and becomes
located farther offshore the Delmarva Peninsula. Waves remain 3 feet
or less.

On Tuesday through this Thursday, winds should vary between
NW`erly and NE`erly as the reinforcing ridge continues to affect
Lake Erie and the core of the ridge moves from the Canadian Prairies
toward James Bay and vicinity. These winds will be mainly 5 to 15
knots in magnitude, but should flirt with 20 knots at times Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Waves are forecast to be mainly 3
feet or less, but should be as large as 4 to 5 feet at times Tuesday
night through Wednesday night, especially east of The Islands.
Forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of a Small
Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...10/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka