901
FXUS61 KCLE 090741
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
241 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the northern Great Lakes will extend
a warm front across the area today. Strong low pressure will
pass north of Lake Erie on Wednesday and extend a cold front
across the area. A trough will set up over the lake on Thursday
and brief high pressure will enter for Thursday night. The
pattern will continue to be unsettled going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Plenty of active weather on tap over the next 36 hours as a
series of upper level troughs and surface low pressure systems
move through the Great Lakes region. For the local area, the
main concerns will be light widespread snow across the northern
half of the area today, accumulating snow in NW PA tonight into
Wednesday, and elevated winds with the second system moving
through the region.

A low pressure system is entering Lake Superior this morning
with an associated warm front well to the south over Illinois.
This front will continue to progress east overnight into
Tuesday. On the cold side of the front, snow is expected with
support from an upper trough also moving through the Great Lakes
region. Overall, the trend with this low and snow has been
further north and less impactful, but will continue to time out
a band of categorical PoPs for the northern third of the area
and a daytime accumulation of up to 0.5" to 1" for areas
closest to Lake Erie. Behind the warm front, expecting
temperatures to warm considerably from recent days into the 30s
for most. There will be a break in precipitation this afternoon
and evening, as this first system races away from the forecast
area.

The more impressive of the two low pressure systems will arrive
tonight and pass north of Lake Erie on Wednesday with an
associated cold front tailing through the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Given moderating temperatures across the
region ahead of this system, most precipitation will begin as a
rain/snow mix or all rain across the forecast area. The lone
exception will be in NW PA, where some trapped near-surface
freezing temperatures will remain and the initial precipitation
type may be freezing rain/drizzle. Eventually, the residual warm
nose will get wiped out and there will be a transition to all
snow in NW PA. For much of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix
will likely not be too impactful, other than melting some of the
snow pack that has lasted a couple of weeks. However, for NW PA,
the timing of the system is coming together where there may be
an intense band of snow during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday
into the Wednesday morning commute. This will be due in large
part to the strong lift from the incoming upper trough and
support from the left exit region of the upper jet. The snowfall
trend for NW PA continues to trend higher with 3-5" of snow
expected before snow mixes with rain late Wednesday morning ahead
of the cold front. Therefore, have hoisted a Winter Weather
Advisory for Southern Erie and Crawford Counties in PA from 1 AM
to 10 PM on Wednesday.

As snow is falling in Northwest PA, the surface low will be
passing north of Lake Erie and extending a cold front across the
area. Ahead of this front, a strong low level jet will be moving
through the region and should do fairly well mixing to the
surface and suspect that there will be southwest wind gusts in
the 40 to 45 mph range. There are some probabilities suggesting
that surface wind gusts could reach 50 mph for NW OH and the
Lake Erie shoreline areas and a wind advisory would be needed if
trends increase. With the frontal passage itself, there will be
a quick drop in temperatures and a rapid change to snow for the
area. Snow accumulations for areas outside of NW PA with the
front would be up to 0.5" of new snow. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be earlier in the day before the front in the 30s
and perhaps some lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main forecast question for Wednesday night through Thursday night
will be how much lake effect snow will there be in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest PA before winds back ahead of the next system
on Friday. The thermodynamics for lake effect snow appear pretty
good early on with -12 to -14 C at 850 mb and some residual
remaining across the region. There will also be northwest flow
over the area, which will be a shorter fetch for Lake Erie but
allow for Lake Huron to potentially get involved for a stronger
multi-band setup. At this point, there is uncertainty on where a
stronger band would be with the average location likely on the
NW/PA border. Backing winds with time would shift these bands
further east and snow activity within the forecast area would
shrink with time and become just light snow showers. If a more
dominant band appears likely to to impact NE OH/NW PA, the
Winter Winter Advisory will likely need to be extended/expanded
as needed for Wednesday night into Thursday.

A weak low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on
Friday and bring a band of widespread snow to the forecast area.
Right now, believe that there could be an inch or so of new snow
for the entire area. This system will bring a touch warmer low
level temperatures and this may allow for any lake effect behind
this system to be slower to start until later into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the weekend into next week, the pattern returns to very cold
with more lake effect snow for NE OH/NW PA. A strong upper
trough will dig into the Great Lakes region and extend a cold
front through the area on Saturday morning. This will allow for
a more favorable air mass to tap into the residual moisture from
Friday`s low pressure system and allow for some accumulating
lake effect snow in NE OH/NW PA. There is still plenty of
uncertainty with the placement, timing, and intensity of snow,
but the weekend will have some snow activity to be concerned
about. The broader impacting feature will be temperatures
returning to the teens/20s for highs and lows in the single
digits/teens. Winds will be elevated over the weekend, so wind
chills near or below zero are on the table. There could be some
reprieve later next week with high pressure eventually entering
the region and moderating some temperatures and allowing lake
effect to break up a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure over the area departs to the east, with VFR
conditions continuing through the overnight hours. A warm front
will be accompanied by a band of light to moderate snowfall
tracking eastward across the area Tuesday morning through early
Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with how far south
this band of snow will extend, with confidence higher in a 1-2
hour period of IFR visibilities across the northern part of the
forecast area (including KTOL, KCLE, and KERI). Visibility could
briefly reach as low as 1/2 SM to 1 SM in the heart of the snow
band across our the northern forecast area. There is lower
confidence across the southern portion of the forecast area
where visibilites may remain above 3 SM (or at least IFR
visibilities will be more brief).

As the warm front crosses the area, strong southwest winds of
around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots expected areawide.
Stronger peak wind gusts of up to 30-35 knots may be possible at
western sites such as KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD and along the
lakeshore (e.g. KERI). OVC/BKN will remain across much of the
area, with FEW/SCT possible across the southern portion of the
area. Cloud bases will be around 3500-5000 ft.

Precipitation associated with the main low pressure system will
move in from the west Tuesday night, resulting in gradually
lower ceilings to primarily MVFR initially. Precipitation type
is going to be a forecast challenge for Tuesday night when
precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow, with a low
chance of freezing rain with the initial first few hours of
precipitation. Warmer temperatures will exist to the southwest,
which is where all rain is most likely (e.g. KFDY). The farther
north and east you get, the more likely it is to mix in snow
(KTOL, KCLE, KMFD, KCAK) and/or be all snow (KERI/KYNG). The low
chance of freezing rain is most likely at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected with snow Tuesday night which
will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain
will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening. Periods of
snow will be possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Strong southwest to
west wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots are possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions are anticipated for much of this week as
a series of systems cross the region. Southeast winds to 10 to
15 knots will develop tonight with south/southwest flow developing
and increasing behind a warm front by Tuesday morning. Small Craft
Advisories start in all nearshore zones at 12Z Tuesday morning and
winds in the open waters mainly in the central and eastern basins
will likely reach 25 to 30 knots for a period Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. The strongest winds will develop as a strong cold
front approaches and moves east across the lake late Tuesday night
through Wednesday and winds will likely reach 25 to 35 knots in the
central and eastern basins of the lake between about 09Z/4 AM
Wednesday and 00Z/7 PM Wednesday evening. A Gale Watch is in effect
during this time. Winds will likely be a bit too southerly to
warrant any low water issues in the western basin on Tuesday, but a
Low Water Advisory will likely be needed at some point with the
strongest west/southwest winds on Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisories will likely continue after the expiration of
any gale headlines Wednesday night onwards, although there
may be a brief lull in higher winds/waves late Thursday night/early
Friday morning before southwest winds increase to 25 to 30 knots
ahead of the next approaching system Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for LEZ144>149.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     LEZ144>149-164>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...15