220
FXUS61 KCLE 061206
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move in from the northwest and stall
over Lake Erie today. A weak clipper system will move along the
stalled boundary on Sunday followed by a stronger cold frontal
passage. High pressure will build in Monday before departing to
the East Coast on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main message for this forecast update will be the colder
than average temperatures expected and a somewhat active weather
pattern for wintry weather. The overall weather pattern
continues to be favor a large, broad upper level trough across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region.

A weak cold front is currently moving through the Great Lakes
this morning and will eventually stall out over the eastern
Great Lakes by this evening. Moisture levels are rather limited
with some mid level dry air. Regional radar composite indicates
precip falling from higher level clouds but most of it not
reaching the ground at this time. As the weak cold front and
surface convergence interacts with the added moisture of Lake
Erie later today, a band of lake effect or lake enhanced light
snow will develop over the lake and move towards the lakeshore
late this morning through the afternoon. Ahead of this
approaching cold front, southwesterly winds will also try to
bring in some shallow low level moisture which some of the high-
res forecast models indicate some spotty graupel type flurries
or maybe some slight chance of freezing drizzle possibly for a
brief period of time later this morning into the afternoon.

The better chance of light snow or wintry weather will be
closer to the weak front and lake enhanced band that forms later
today into this evening, mainly impacting the lakeshore areas
of far NEOH and NWPA. Snowfall will be light up to an inch or
two for parts of Erie County PA over towards northern Ashtabula
County OH. High temperatures will be in the lower and middle 30s
today. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be back down in
the lower to middle 20s.

The next weather system will arrive tomorrow in the form of a
weak clipper system that will track across the Upper Midwest
and through the lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Moisture will also
be limited with the system on Sunday. But all of northern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania has a chance of light snow on Sunday
as this system moves across the area from west to east. A
slightly stronger cold front will move through Sunday afternoon
as this system moves across. All of the area has the potential
of seeing up to 1 inch of light snowfall on Sunday. Behind the
cold front, northwesterly winds will push in colder air aloft
and help generate some lake effect or lake enhancement snow
showers late Sunday afternoon into the overnight for the
Snowbelt. Light snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may be
possible for the Snowbelt Sunday into Sunday night. High
temperatures on Sunday will occur before the cold front in the
lower to middle 30s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be
colder back down in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the Great Lakes region on Monday.
Despite some sunshine Monday, afternoon high temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 20s. High pressure will move off
towards the New England coast late Monday night into Tuesday.
Another shortwave trough and associated clipper system will
dive through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. The track of
this low pressure and clipper system will mainly be north of our
area but will squirt our northern counties of NEOH and NWPA
with a round of light snow late on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds
will increase on Tuesday 15 to 25 mph as the low pressure system
tracks north of Lake Erie.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance continues to indicate a cold and active wintry
weather pattern through the end of next week. Forecast guidance
continues to show a stronger clipper system tracking across the
Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly
winds will increase 20 to 30 mph on Wednesday ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. There will widespread precip
starting out as light snow but changing over to light rain as
temperatures briefly warm up above freezing on Wednesday into
upper 30s to around 40 degrees. A stronger cold front will move
through as the clipper system tracks through the region late
Wednesday. Colder air will push back in Wednesday night through
the end of next week with the potential for another clipper
system to track across the area later in the week. The general
message for the middle and end of next week looks colder with
several rounds of light snow from clippers followed by some
decent lake effect snow potentially.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Conditions across the airspace are generally VFR ahead of a cold
front. However, some MVFR ceilings and visibility has encroached
on southeast portions of the forecast area, particularly KCAK,
and will maintain for much of the day. With the cold front
sweeping through today and some increased low level moisture,
expecting some snow showers to flare up to the lee of Lake Erie,
mainly impacting KERI this afternoon. Elsewhere, the increased
moisture will mainly just result in dropping ceilings down to
MVFR and perhaps some limited IFR. While not mentioned in the
TAFs, there is potential for some flurries or even some freezing
drizzle to fall out of these lower ceilings this afternoon.
However, confidence in coverage is low and confidence in impact
at a terminal is even lower. Winds with the front will generally
be southwest with some veering to the west this afternoon and
evening.

Brief high pressure will build in behind the front and winds
will back to the south tonight with snow getting pushed back
north over Lake Erie. A clipper system will enter for Sunday and
bring snow to the region. Any impacts will be after 12z so only
have snow mentioned in the KCLE TAF with some IFR expected.

Outlook...Periods of IFR is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on Sunday. Non-VFR is expected again with snow on
Tuesday and a rain/snow mix on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds on the lake will increase today to 15 to 20 kts
with a cold front pushing across the area. Waves will build to 2
to 5 ft with the elevated winds and the Small Craft Advisory for
the eastern half of the lake remains valid. Winds will become
briefly westerly tonight behind the front. For Sunday, a clipper
system will move through the region and this low will offer
some brief elevated winds with southwest winds to start on
Sunday and northwest to north winds behind the low by Sunday
night. Winds with this low will be in the 15 to 20 kt range
again and once the flow becomes onshore, waves will exceed 4 ft
and another Small Craft Advisory will be needed. High pressure
will build into the region for Monday and winds will decrease
over the lake and eventually become offshore again, ending the
need for a marine headline for a day or two.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be a sequence of low
pressure systems that will move through the Great Lakes region.
The first, weaker low will enhance southwest flow on the lake on
Tuesday, as quickly passes to the north of the lake. Suspect
that winds will be near 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon for most of
the lake and marine headlines will be needed. For Wednesday, a
stronger low will pass closer to the lake and the potential for
gale force winds is increasing. With strong southwest flow being
favored, water levels for the western basin of Lake Erie will
need to be monitored but Low Water Advisories are possible,
especially if winds reach 30 kts next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic