036
FXUS61 KCLE 160549
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today and persist
into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area
Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This
system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure currently centered over the Michigan Upper Peninsula
moves southeast to over the eastern part of our forecast area
Thursday night. Clear skies and cooler conditions are expected to
accompany this high. Light winds and clear skies will lead to
favorable radiational cooling tonight and Thursday night, with frost
expected tonight in the eastern part of forecast area. Temperatures
should get even colder Thursday night with the high directly
overhead, with more widespread frost and even freeze conditions for
parts of the eastern half of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure departs to the east on Friday, with an upper-level
ridge building in overhead. A weak mid-level theta-e gradient
with a warm front may result in at least a chance for scattered
rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning, especially in
the eastern part of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Southerly flow will result in warming
temperatures especially on Saturday when highs will climb into
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper-level trough builds in from the middle of the country
on Saturday night to over the Great Lakes region on Sunday and
Sunday night, intensifying as it does so. Rapid deepening of the
associated surface low is forecast over the central Great Lakes
on Sunday as synoptic-scale features come in a little stronger
with the 12Z suite of model guidance today compared to the past
few forecasts. This forecast did trend a bitter higher with
PoPs, thunder, and wind, with areawide PoPs of 80-90% (and total
QPF around an inch), a slight chance of thunderstorms added for
Sunday afternoon, and wind gusts of around 30 mph. If a
stronger system does materialize, stronger wind gusts in the
40-60 mph could be possible with very low potential of heavy
rain/severe weather. Certainly a system worth keeping an eye on.

Wrap around moisture from the trowal may result in additional
rain showers Sunday night with a bit of lake effect rain
lingering on Monday in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected as
a ridge builds across the area Monday through Tuesday. Another
low pressure system may impact the region with more rain and
possible wind on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, though there is a lot
of variability in model guidance right now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast
into the region today. Skies are clear at the start of the
period except a small patch of clouds near 3500 feet that will
be in the vicinity of FDY through about 08Z. Otherwise
conditions are expected to be generally VFR through the TAF
cycle. Some mixing is expected to continue overnight, but if
winds go calm at TOL or FDY towards sunrise, can not entirely
rule out a short window of MVFR visibilities with BR. Otherwise,
light north to northeast winds are expected to continue until
tonight when they go light and variable or shift around to the
southeast.

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Scattered
showers with a warm front may bring limited non-VFR Friday
night. Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes on
Sunday, pushing a cold front across the local area. Non-VFR due
to showers/possible thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible
with this system, especially Sunday and Sunday night. Non VFR
possible downwind of Lake Erie into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected over Lake Erie
through Friday as high pressure currently over the Upper Great
Lakes builds in on Thursday and remains in control through
Friday evening. A push of 15-20kt north-northeast winds is
expected this evening through early Thursday morning, building
2-5 foot waves in the central and eastern basins (1-3 foot
west). Based on the latest wind forecast, the expected wave
heights have increased just a bit tonight, especially across the
central basin. While this will be a brief overnight event
limiting the impacts, the duration of potential 4 foot waves in
the central basin is a little over 6 hours, which warrants a
Small Craft Advisory for tonight/early Thursday morning. Winds
will diminish to under 15kt Thursday morning and remain under
15kt through Friday while shifting east and then south.

A warm front will lift across the lake Friday night, allowing
winds to increase out of the south-southeast to 10-20kt through
Saturday. Winds increase further Saturday night into Sunday at
15-25kt ahead of an approaching cold front. This strong cold
front crosses Sunday afternoon or evening as deepening low
pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, shifting the winds out
of the west or northwest. Model guidance varies wildly on how
quickly the aforementioned low pressure deepens Sunday into
Sunday night, with some disagreement on the track of the low
too. Recent guidance has trended towards a stronger low tracking
to our north and northeast, which would be a favorable trend
for stronger winds over the lake, potentially reaching gales
behind the front and departing low late Sunday or Sunday night.
The current forecast has 20-30kt westerly winds behind the cold
front through Sunday night before slackening slightly to 15-25kt
Monday-Tuesday. Probabilities for peak sustained winds
exceeding gale-force Sunday or Sunday night, per the most recent
NBM v5.0, ranges from 10-30% in the western basin to 20-40% in
the eastern basin and 40-60% in the central basin. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed for all nearshore zones starting
Saturday or Saturday night into early next week. Gale headlines
may be needed for at least a portion of that window Sunday into
Sunday night. If the wind direction remains primarily westerly,
winds appear as if they`ll be strong enough to create low water
issues in the western basin late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-022-023-
     032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Sullivan