


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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036 FXUS61 KCLE 160549 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 149 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and persist into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure currently centered over the Michigan Upper Peninsula moves southeast to over the eastern part of our forecast area Thursday night. Clear skies and cooler conditions are expected to accompany this high. Light winds and clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling tonight and Thursday night, with frost expected tonight in the eastern part of forecast area. Temperatures should get even colder Thursday night with the high directly overhead, with more widespread frost and even freeze conditions for parts of the eastern half of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure departs to the east on Friday, with an upper-level ridge building in overhead. A weak mid-level theta-e gradient with a warm front may result in at least a chance for scattered rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning, especially in the eastern part of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Southerly flow will result in warming temperatures especially on Saturday when highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-level trough builds in from the middle of the country on Saturday night to over the Great Lakes region on Sunday and Sunday night, intensifying as it does so. Rapid deepening of the associated surface low is forecast over the central Great Lakes on Sunday as synoptic-scale features come in a little stronger with the 12Z suite of model guidance today compared to the past few forecasts. This forecast did trend a bitter higher with PoPs, thunder, and wind, with areawide PoPs of 80-90% (and total QPF around an inch), a slight chance of thunderstorms added for Sunday afternoon, and wind gusts of around 30 mph. If a stronger system does materialize, stronger wind gusts in the 40-60 mph could be possible with very low potential of heavy rain/severe weather. Certainly a system worth keeping an eye on. Wrap around moisture from the trowal may result in additional rain showers Sunday night with a bit of lake effect rain lingering on Monday in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected as a ridge builds across the area Monday through Tuesday. Another low pressure system may impact the region with more rain and possible wind on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, though there is a lot of variability in model guidance right now. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast into the region today. Skies are clear at the start of the period except a small patch of clouds near 3500 feet that will be in the vicinity of FDY through about 08Z. Otherwise conditions are expected to be generally VFR through the TAF cycle. Some mixing is expected to continue overnight, but if winds go calm at TOL or FDY towards sunrise, can not entirely rule out a short window of MVFR visibilities with BR. Otherwise, light north to northeast winds are expected to continue until tonight when they go light and variable or shift around to the southeast. Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Scattered showers with a warm front may bring limited non-VFR Friday night. Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes on Sunday, pushing a cold front across the local area. Non-VFR due to showers/possible thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible with this system, especially Sunday and Sunday night. Non VFR possible downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. && .MARINE... Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected over Lake Erie through Friday as high pressure currently over the Upper Great Lakes builds in on Thursday and remains in control through Friday evening. A push of 15-20kt north-northeast winds is expected this evening through early Thursday morning, building 2-5 foot waves in the central and eastern basins (1-3 foot west). Based on the latest wind forecast, the expected wave heights have increased just a bit tonight, especially across the central basin. While this will be a brief overnight event limiting the impacts, the duration of potential 4 foot waves in the central basin is a little over 6 hours, which warrants a Small Craft Advisory for tonight/early Thursday morning. Winds will diminish to under 15kt Thursday morning and remain under 15kt through Friday while shifting east and then south. A warm front will lift across the lake Friday night, allowing winds to increase out of the south-southeast to 10-20kt through Saturday. Winds increase further Saturday night into Sunday at 15-25kt ahead of an approaching cold front. This strong cold front crosses Sunday afternoon or evening as deepening low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, shifting the winds out of the west or northwest. Model guidance varies wildly on how quickly the aforementioned low pressure deepens Sunday into Sunday night, with some disagreement on the track of the low too. Recent guidance has trended towards a stronger low tracking to our north and northeast, which would be a favorable trend for stronger winds over the lake, potentially reaching gales behind the front and departing low late Sunday or Sunday night. The current forecast has 20-30kt westerly winds behind the cold front through Sunday night before slackening slightly to 15-25kt Monday-Tuesday. Probabilities for peak sustained winds exceeding gale-force Sunday or Sunday night, per the most recent NBM v5.0, ranges from 10-30% in the western basin to 20-40% in the eastern basin and 40-60% in the central basin. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for all nearshore zones starting Saturday or Saturday night into early next week. Gale headlines may be needed for at least a portion of that window Sunday into Sunday night. If the wind direction remains primarily westerly, winds appear as if they`ll be strong enough to create low water issues in the western basin late Sunday into early Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-022-023- 032-033. PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ144>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...10 MARINE...Sullivan