306
FXUS61 KCLE 302346
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain will arrive with a cold front Thursday night into
Friday.

2) Cool and dry weather is expected behind the front this weekend
into next week. Frost/Freeze headlines are possible, especially
Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest satellite and radar imagery reveal an area of
widespread cloud cover and rain slowly moving east through the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon along an arcing
baroclinic zone, well ahead of a stronger upper-level trough and
surface cold front. Generally light rain is expected with this
activity later this evening and overnight as it sags east,
mainly along the lakeshore.

The more steady and widespread rain will arrive Thursday night into
Friday as the surface cold front interacts with a potent mid-level
shortwave. This will bring a narrow area of deep moisture profiles
into the area, with PWATs reaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches at times. Given
the recent dry pattern across the region (3-hr FFGs averaging 2 to
2.5 inches), not anticipating any significant water issues, though
can`t rule out some isolated nuisance flooding, especially along or
west of the I-71 corridor where low probabilities exist (10 to 30%)
for 6-hr rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts
should generally remain at or below 1 inch, but nonetheless, a good
soaking rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Following a brief spell of high pressure behind the first cold
front Friday into Saturday, another reinforcing cold front will
move south through the area on Sunday as a stronger area of
Canadian high pressure builds south across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Below average temperatures and dry weather is
favored with this pattern with highs generally in the upper 50s
to 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. This pattern could
bring our first widespread Frost/Freeze threat, especially
Monday and Tuesday nights where light winds and clear skies will
result in efficient radiative cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions continue across terminals through the TAF period
as rain showers push eastward across northern TAF sites this
evening. Within rain showers expect slightly lower ceilings of
6-8 kft through tonight.

Southerly winds 5-10 knots tonight will turn southwesterly by
late Thursday morning. Winds will increase to 8-12 knots with
gusts of 18-22 knots across southern TAF sites.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with rain showers Thursday night
through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions are expected through Thursday as
southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected. Choppy conditions
will return across Lake Erie behind a cold front Thursday night into
Friday as winds shift towards the north to northwest, around 15
knots, though brief 20-knot winds immediately behind the front
cannot be ruled out. A Small Craft Advisory is possible on Friday
and Friday night, mainly across the Central Basin. The next period
for rough marine conditions will arrive Sunday night into Monday as
a reinforcing cold front moves south across the region, ushering in
more widespread north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots. Small
Craft Advisories are appearing more likely during this timeframe.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Kahn