Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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707
FXUS61 KCLE 121039
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
639 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will track slowly northward from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley through the
middle of the week bringing unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
615 am update...
There were no adjustments needed to the ongoing near term
forecast at this time. The weather remains quiet this morning
but clouds and moisture will increase later today with rain
showers moving in by this evening.

Previous discussion...
Our weather pattern will transition today from a ridge of high
pressure to the influence of a slow moving upper level low
pressure system coming in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This upper
level low will slowly meander northward into the Lower Ohio
Valley tonight and Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching system,
most of today will be dry with fair weather conditions. High
clouds will increase throughout the day becoming mostly overcast
towards the late afternoon. There will still be a good amount
of sunshine or filtered sun during much of today. High
temperatures will range from the middle 70s near central Ohio
and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

Scattered rain showers and a slight chance for a thunderstorm or
two will start to move in by late this afternoon or early this
evening near central Ohio. The rain chances and POPs will
increase from south to north during the evening hours into the
overnight across the entire area. No severe weather is
anticipated with the slight chance of a T`storm or two.
POPs will remain likely on Tuesday with scattered showers and a
couple thunderstorms possible. Average rainfall amounts or QPF
today through Tuesday afternoon will be around a quarter of an
inch. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s
over NWPA to the lower and middle 70s over NEOH and NWOH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will evolve into an upper trough Tuesday night
overhead with the upper trough remaining in place through the
bulk of the short term period. Scattered showers and storms will
continue Tuesday night into early Wednesday though have highest
PoPs on Wednesday afternoon as MLCAPE values rise to ~1000 J/kg
during the peak heating hours of Wednesday afternoon. Minimal
bulk layer shear in place so not anticipating a severe weather
threat with the mid week system. However, can`t rule out
isolated strong storms producing gusty winds and small hail. By
Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will build over the Ohio
Valley bringing a brief dry window Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Another round of isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms triggered by peak heating are possible on
Thursday, though coverage may be lower than Wednesday afternoon
given the upper ridge overhead. Low pressure centered over the
Northern Plains will lift a warm front northeast across the Mid
to Upper Ohio Valley Thursday night into the start of the long
term period likely triggering some showers and thunderstorms.

Overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday night settle near 60 degrees
with warmer overnight lows on Thursday night in the mid 60s. Highs
on Wednesday rise into the mid to upper 70s. It will be warm on
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania and low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned expansive low pressure system will be the
primary driver of unsettled weather through the long term
period. AI/ML models continue to hint at the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms impacting portions of the Ohio
Valley region Thursday night into Friday morning. We`ll have to
see how convection west of the local forecast area evolves as it
pushes east into the Upper Ohio Valley late Thursday night and
early Friday morning as this will likely be our best environment
for any severe weather, despite the overnight timeframe.
Unsettled weather will likely remain in place through the long
term as the upper low slowly moves from the Northern Plains into
the Great Lakes region. The low will glide a cold front east
across the region during the day on Friday with a reinforcing
front pushing east on Saturday. Warmest day through the long
term will be Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Highs are
forecasted to rise to the mid 70s by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue through most of today but gradually
clouds will increase and ceilings will lower late this
afternoon into the evening. MVFR ceilings will move in for most
TAF sites after 00z this evening. IFR ceilings will creep in for
TOL, MFD, FDY, YNG and CAK by 06z overnight. Scattered rain
showers will also move in impacting TAF sites across the area
this evening into the overnight with visibility reductions of
5sm as well as light mist. Winds will be mainly from the east or
southeast 5 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and periodic rain showers are
expected Monday night through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure exits to the east today as low pressure over the Lower
Mississippi Valley works its way towards the Mid Atlantic region.
Generally easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through
Thursday night before winds favor a southerly flow through the end
of the week. By Friday winds turn southwesterly to westerly and may
increase to 15-20 knots as a cold front sweeps east across the lake.
Elevated westerly to northwesterly winds will likely persist through
the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13