779
FXUS61 KCLE 262004
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
404 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will enter the region from the northwest tonight
and remain over the area Sunday and Monday. A warm front will
pass through the region on Monday night ahead of the next low
pressure system that will enter on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive cloud cover remains across the region this afternoon,
as low pressure and a cold front depart to the east. High
pressure will enter from the northwest tonight and continue to
scour out clouds across the region to eventually clear
overnight. Temperatures should stay from the mid 30s and higher
overnight. There could be a sweet spot in the Wooster and Canton
areas where lows around 36 and lesser winds could allow for some
patchy frost tonight with the clearing conditions. Otherwise,
high pressure will remain across the region for Sunday and dry
conditions will continue. Temperatures will improve into the 50s
and lower 60s for highs and lows will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The severe weather potential on Tuesday continues to be the primary
concern for the short term forecast period. High pressure will
gradually exit to the east on Monday as low pressure traverses
across the northern Plains. The low will lift a warm front across
the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Ahead of a cold front,
MLCAPE values will rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with 30 knots of 0-1 km shear, 50-60 knots of deep
layer shear, and 300 m2/s2 of SRH. Given this, all hazards are
possible in any thunderstorm that forms including large hail,
damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. The SPC
SWODY4 continues to highlight our entire forecast area for Tuesday.

Highs on Monday will rise into the mid 70s areawide. Warm overnight
lows settle in the mid 60s west of I-71 and mid to upper 50s east of
I-71. Highs rise into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon and fall into the
upper 40s behind the cold front Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and cool weather expected behind the cold front on Wednesday as
high pressure briefly builds overhead. The aforementioned front will
stall along the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday before lifting back
north as a warm front Thursday as a system approaches from the
Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will re-enter the region
from the west Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday as the
system glides northeast across the eastern Great Lakes. A
reinforcing cold front will move south across the region on
Saturday.

Limited instability Thursday should curb a severe weather threat.
Will need to continue to monitor the heavy rain potential with the
mid/late week rainfall as PWAT values will be well above the 75th
percentile.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mostly MVFR ceilings continue across the region this afternoon
in the wake of a cold front. Clouds are starting to scour out
and lift to low VFR in lower Michigan into NW Ohio. Expect
ceilings to clear from northwest to southeast this evening as
the low heads out of the region and high pressure enters from
the northwest. Winds will maintain a general northwest wind
direction and decrease this evening with the incoming high
pressure system. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range remain
possible until this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday. Additional rounds of non-VFR possible in showers on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gradually improving marine conditions expected tonight into Sunday
morning as northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminish to 10 knots or
less while high pressure builds overhead. Generally offshore flow 10
knots or less will continue through the rest of the weekend and
beginning of next week. Southerly winds increase Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure exits to the east and a warm front lifts
across the lake. Southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday
morning before turning westerly Tuesday evening behind a cold front
but remain elevated. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for this
timeframe.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...13