041
FXUS61 KCLE 011057
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering surface trough across the southern Great Lakes will
persist today, before dissipating tonight as high pressure builds in.
High pressure then persists through the weekend before a cold front
crosses the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few features will influence the weather through the weekend, though
with that said the main flavor is a quiet, slightly chilly weekend to
kick off the month of November.

A weak surface trough axis is hanging back across the southern Great
Lakes this morning, behind deep low pressure exiting northeast through
the Canadian Maritimes. This trough is expected to settle south over
Lake Erie today. To the west, water vapor and satellite imagery
nicely depict a closed low currently sinking south- southeast into
Iowa. This has a weak surface reflection, and will continue sinking
south-southeast across the lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley and
into the Southeast. A surface trough, analyzed as a weak cold front by
the WPC, will lift across the area ahead of this closed low today and
stall over Lake Erie. Surface high pressure will gradually build over
the area this weekend, causing both surface troughs mentioned above
to dissipate over Lake Erie on Sunday.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today and tonight, due to a
combination of lake effect into Northeast OH/Northwest PA and some
synoptic moisture and lift ahead of the closed low diving into the
Ohio Valley. In terms of rain chances, there may be a sprinkle across
Northwest OH early this morning as the aforementioned surface trough
works northeast into the area. Otherwise, the main focus for rain will
be lake effect off of Lake Erie, which has struggled quite a bit to
get going so far given a somewhat dry low-level airmass and lacking
synoptic support. Generally expect the lake effect to continue to
struggle, though an uptick appears likely from just offshore Cleveland
points east into northern portions of the primary snowbelt this
morning, due to some increase in synoptic moisture/lift as the surface
trough axis ahead of the closed low to the west lifts towards the
lake. Lake effect will be fairly confined to the eastern lakeshore
with increasingly light synoptic flow allowing shoreline convergence
to dominate, especially late tonight into early Sunday when a land
breeze will likely develop and push offshore. The lake effect will
flare at times through early Sunday though will generally remain
fairly weak and disorganized...enough to warrant chance POPs (30-50%)
at times, but not more at this point. QPF amounts will be light. Lake
effect should either push entirely offshore or just end Sunday
morning, leaving a dry day with plenty of sunshine area-wide.

Highs today will generally warm into the mid 50s, a bit cooler in the
higher terrain of Northwest PA. Lows tonight will generally dip into
the 30s, with a few colder spots inland possibly dipping below
freezing if there are enough breaks in the clouds. Highs on Sunday are
expected to warm a bit, into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather is expected for Sunday night as high pressure exits to
the east ahead of a cold front approaching form the northwest. This
cold front will cross on Monday, bringing breezier conditions and
perhaps some rain showers. Compared to yesterday, models keep the
shortwave and deeper moisture/forcing with this front even farther to
the north, increasing confidence in a dry frontal passage for much of
the area. The exception is Northeast OH and Northwest PA, mainly
close to the lake and into Erie County PA, where some enhancement from
the lake and closer proximity to the forcing leads to greater
potential for some showers with minimal QPF. Wind gusts to 30 MPH are
likely on Monday. High pressure builds in quickly Monday night,
meaning any lake effect behind the front will be limited and end
quickly. The ridge axis will slide across the area on Tuesday, exiting
to the east Tuesday night. The next shortwave begins diving into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night, though the shortwave and its associated
cold front should stay far enough west for a dry night locally.

Temperatures will be close to normal for the short term, with highs in
the mid 50s to near 60 both Monday and Tuesday and lows in the 30s and
40s...mildest Sunday and Tuesday nights in warm air advection, and
chilliest Monday night with high pressure building in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next shortwave in this active/progressive pattern slides through
the Great Lakes on Wednesday...another glancing blow for our area,
with greater forcing expected to stay to the north. Still, a cold
front will cross, for which a chance of showers is mentioned in the
forecast across the northeastern ~1/2 of the area, with lower
confidence in rain potential to the southwest. The 0z GFS and CMC
offer a somewhat more amplified solution than the 12z ECMWF, which
could increase the potential for a (mainly light) rain event across
more of the area Wednesday or Wednesday night. Overall though, this
will be another breezy front with rain amounts on the lighter side
where it occurs. After high pressure briefly slides through and brings
quiet weather Thursday, there`s good agreement in the next shortwave
moving into the region from the west-southwest on Friday. There`s less
agreement on the finer details, but the next chance for some rain and
breezier weather looks to arrive on Friday.

Temperatures will be close to but generally above normal through the
extended with an active/progressive but Pacific-dominated pattern in
place, limiting polar influence into the region for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue for this 12z TAF update. Scattered
to broken ceilings will be around 4000 and 6000 feet through
much of today. Winds will be from the west to west- southwest 5
to 10 knots over the next 24 hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered light rain showers on
Monday, particularly across the northern half of the area. Non-
VFR chances may return in additional scattered rain showers on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The current Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 8 am this
morning. Westerly wind will gradually ease to 10 to 15 knots
today and waves heights decreasing to 1 to 3 feet. High pressure
will build over the lake tonight with lighter winds and waves.
Winds will become southwesterly on Sunday 5 to 10 knots and
waves 1 to 2 feet. By Sunday night, winds will increase from the
southwester 10 to 15 knots. A cold front will approach the lake
on Monday with west-southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots and wave
heights increasing of 5 to 8 feet east of Cleveland. West of
Cleveland and away from the immediate shore, wave heights will
be 2 to 5 feet on Monday. Northwest winds 20 to 30 knots will
follow behind the cold front Monday night and waves 4 to 8 feet.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Monday into Monday
night for most if not all of the nearshore lake zones. Westerly
winds 10 to 20 knots will continue on Tuesday, especially for
the central and eastern basin. The eastern lake zones may
continue with SCA into Tuesday. A return of stronger winds 15 to
25 knots from the south switching from the west will return by
Wednesday with additional Small Craft Advisories likely needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77