825
FXUS61 KCLE 092231
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains over the area before a cold front
crosses the region Tuesday. High pressure builds back in Tuesday
night, shifting off to the east by Thursday. Next low pressure
system is expected to impact the region by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The main low pressure track lies to the northeast of the CWA,
cutting northwest to southeast primarily through the northern Great
Lakes. Not quite an upper level ridging scenario for the CWA, but
mainly just a quieter portion of the upper level flow. At the same
time, an upper level low passes through the deep south, putting our
area in between. Expansive 500mb height and 850mb temperature
ridging over the intermountain west and high plains is starting to
reach into the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes,
giving us the current warming trend that has today about 15 degrees
warmer than Saturday. Surface low pressure will traverse the US-
Canadian border, strengthen, and pull the warm sector further into
the southern Great Lakes for Monday. As a result, will see the
temperatures continue to climb into the mid 50s east to lower 60s
west with surface winds out of the southwest. Mainly sunny/clear
skies through the near term forecast period. Dry forecast/zero
POPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will kick off with a cold front sweeping
southeast across the CWA as low pressure tracks east across Quebec.
Moisture appears to be minimal across the area so frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon/evening will be dry with perhaps a slight uptick
in cloud cover where moisture will be slightly higher across NW PA
and NE OH. A tightened pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions with gusts to 25 to 30 mph likely across portions of
NW OH. High pressure will quickly build into the region behind the
cold front with dry weather continuing through Wednesday night.
Tuesday`s highs will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, although
temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler in the vicinity of
Lake Erie, which still has surface temps in the 30s. Tuesday night`s
lows will fall into the 20s across NE OH and NW PA with lower 30s
more likely in the western reaches of the CWA. Temperatures may
struggle to rise on Wednesday, but locations along and south of U.S.
30 will likely see highs in the 50s with 40s more likely north. A
warm front will lift into the region Wednesday night which will
allow overnight lows to remain in the mild upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few showers are possible as the aforementioned warm front
continues to lift north across the area Thursday, but moisture
remains very marginal so PoPs are capped at slight chance (around 20
percent). Temperatures will warm well into the 60s Thursday
afternoon and a few spots along and west of the I-75 corridor in NW
OH may make a run for 70 degrees. Temperatures warm further in the
warm sector on Friday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s likely.

The next system will impact the area Friday into the weekend; rain
will begin to move east into the CWA late Friday into early Saturday
morning with PoPs most likely peaking with the assistance of a LLJ
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Still a lot to iron out with
this system, but will need to continue to keep an eye on QPF and the
potential for efficient rainfall rates. This will likely be a windy
system so will need to monitor the wind gust forecast over the next
several days.

PoPs will taper off from the west Sunday, although some lake-
enhanced rain showers may stick around across NE OH/NW PA through
the remainder of the long term period.

Saturday`s highs will likely reach the upper 60s to lower 70s before
temps cool into the 50s due to cold air advection Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is observed and expected to continue through the TAF period
of clear/sunny skies. A few hours of LLWS will be possible
between 01-09Z overnight tonight into the pre-dawn hours Monday
morning with around 40-45 knots of wind expected at 2kft.

Southwest winds of around 8-11 knots gradually decrease to 4-7
knots by sunrise Monday morning before increasing back to 7-12
knots Monday afternoon. A weak afternoon lake breeze is
possible east of Cleveland.

Outlook...VFR expected through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots are expected tonight and waves will
likely approach 3 to 5 feet in the ice free areas in the
open waters from roughly Avon Point east overnight. Winds are
expected to diminish to 10 knots or less by 12Z/8 AM Monday. The
pressure gradient will tighten Monday night into Tuesday as low
pressure tracks east to the north of the Great Lakes with southwest
winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots by Tuesday morning. The low`s
associated cold front will cross the lake Tuesday afternoon and
evening, allowing winds to shift to the northwest. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed Tuesday morning and possibly into the
afternoon/evening if winds trend higher along and just behind the
cold front. Winds will veer to the northeast as high pressure builds
over the lake Tuesday night before shifting to the southeast
Wednesday night through Friday. Winds will begin to increase as
the next system approaches from the west Friday night and Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

Warming temperatures will produce additional melting of the
remaining Lake Erie ice and periods of elevated winds will likely
cause chunks of ice to break offshore and float around. The ice
movement could be hazardous and will greatly dictate wave potential
this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...26/Saunders
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...15