419
FXUS61 KCLE 070843
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand into the region today bringing quiet
weather, then building east across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
Low pressure will track from the Central Plains across the Upper
Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, pulling a weak cold front
east across the area by Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low level cold advection will continue across the region today ahead
of high pressure building in from the west. A weak trough crosses
Lake Erie by sunrise with satellite imagery showing a good swath of
stratus within the colder air behind the trough. Some expansion of
clouds is expected through sunrise but moisture will be shallow and
likely to scatter out quickly in Northwest Ohio, hanging on into
early afternoon in the east with flow through 925mb out of the
north. Highs today will reflect the cooler airmass and partial
cloud cover with temperatures in the 50s, which are actually
near normal for the first week of November.

Temperatures will drop quickly tonight with light winds to start the
evening, especially inland. Winds will increase some overnight but
with mostly clear skies will expect lows to range from the mid 30s
inland to mid 40s lakeshore. An upper level trough will clip the
eastern Great Lakes on Friday with the surface ridge shifting south
into the Ohio Valley. Westerly winds will increase through the day
with some gusts during the afternoon around 20 mph. Skies will tend
to remain mostly clear except some scattered clouds coming in off
the lake across the snowbelt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term starts off dry as high pressure gradually pushes east
across the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Low pressure out of the
Plains pushes northeast toward the Upper Midwest through the short
term period. This low will lift a warm front across the region early
Sunday. Cloud cover will be on the increase Saturday afternoon with
PoPs increasing overnight Saturday into Sunday. As the low continues
to move across the Upper Midwest, it will drag a cold front east
across the local area during the day Sunday. Abnormally high PWATs
associated with this system should provide enough moisture for
beneficial rainfall across the region. High confidence in most sites
seeing at least 0.25" of rainfall with up to 0.5-0.75+" possible
from Saturday night through Sunday night.

A warming trend will take place through the short term as the warm
front lifts across the region. Overnight lows Friday night dip into
the low to mid 30s, upper 30s along the lakeshore. By Sunday night,
overnight lows will settle in the mid to upper 40s. A similar trend
in afternoon highs with mid to upper 50s Saturday rising into the
upper 50 to mid 60s by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aforementioned low and cold front will be east of the local area by
Monday. Northwest flow behind the front along with lingering low
level moisture will provide enough support for lake effect rain
showers to persist through the first part of Monday. High pressure
attempts to establish itself overhead by Tuesday which may bring a
break in any precipitation chances through early Wednesday before
another system approaches from the Upper Midwest. Still some stark
differences between deterministic guidance and ensemble members on
track and timing of this low pressure system, but for now have PoPs
increasing from west to east early Wednesday morning.

Afternoon highs will generally remain in the mid to upper 50s Monday
and Tuesday with the potential for highs in the mid 60s by Wednesday
ahead of our next system. Overnight lows through the long term will
generally remain in the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
BKN clouds have generally been around 4500 feet across the area
but are starting to lower to MVFR off Lake Erie in NE Ohio and
NW Pennsylvania. In addition, patchy fog and occasional low
stratus near 200 feet has been ongoing a YNG for a couple hours
but some improvement is expected as a higher cloud deck moves
overhead. With that said, much of the area will see MVFR clouds
fill in, especially between 08-10Z. These clouds are fairly
extensive upstream in northern Indiana and Michigan on satellite
imagery. Could see a few other patches of IFR visibilities but
the general trend will be for the expanding MVFR as cooler air
settles over the region in advance of building high pressure.
Moisture depth will be shallow and will tend to mix out between
15-19Z with the slower clearing expected in the east.

Winds are generally northwesterly at around 5 knots but a few
sites in Northeast Ohio have a light southwest wind ahead of the
weak trough that will settle south overnight. The passage of the
trough will bring winds to more northerly for a couple hours
before trending back to northwesterly through the daytime hours
on Thursday. Winds after 00Z Friday will tend to be
southwesterly at 7 knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings
Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds over the region leading to a brief window of
quiet marine conditions with northwest winds 10-15 knots through this
evening. Winds shift westerly by tonight and increase to 15-25 knots
with wave heights building to 3-6 feet through Friday before turning
northerly Friday night. Will likely need a small craft for nearshore
zones off Cleveland and points east through Friday. Winds turn
northerly by early Saturday morning before becoming easterly
Saturday afternoon while gradually decreasing below 15 knots.
Easterly winds 10-15 knots will increase to 15-25 knots by Sunday
while turning southerly as a warm front approaches the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Iverson