074
FXUS61 KCLE 150934
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure slowly exits east as high pressure builds
in through tonight. High pressure remains in control through Sunday,
with a weak cold front moving through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low-impact weather through this period, though without much sunshine
unfortunately. While the upper support is quickly exiting southeast
today, a surface trough axis will persist from Lake Erie into
northeast OH and northwest PA through this evening before surface
high pressure builds in from the west tonight. Convergence along
this trough axis along with some lake-enhanced moisture will keep
sprinkle and intermittent shower chances going across northeast OH
and northwest PA into tonight, with rain chances finally ending at
some point late tonight or Saturday morning in the snowbelt. With
inversion heights near or below 850mb am expecting just light
shower activity off the lake with small drops. Across the rest of
our area moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion will keep
skies mainly overcast today and tonight. Even on Saturday, there
probably will only be partial clearing through the afternoon.

Temperatures will rise no more than a few degrees today, with
afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight will
mainly be in the 40s, with clouds and trapped low-level moisture
preventing more of a drop. Highs Saturday look close to today`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will be centered over the region Saturday
night, though it will be short-lived as it quickly departs to the
east. A warm front lifts north across the region, with warm
southwest winds bringing high temperatures into the upper 50s and
low 60s. An upper-level trough and associated cold front move east
across the area Sunday night. The better moisture and lift will be
located to the north and northeast, with only isolated to scattered
rain showers across the area Sunday night into early Monday morning.
For now, held with 20-50% PoPs with lower end of the range to the
west (e.g. Northwest Ohio) and higher PoPs to the east (e.g.
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania).

By Monday, high pressure briefly builds back in, with mostly sunny
skies (other than some high cirrus) and relatively similar
temperatures compared to Sunday. An upper-level shortwave trough and
low pressure system develop over the southern Plains on Monday,
lifting northward through the day and Monday night. Precipitation
chances and cloud cover increase from the west Monday night (30-50%
PoPs west of I-71, 60% around I-75 corridor).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered rain showers are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low
pressure trough extending from the low over the northern Great Lakes
lingers across our forecast area. A much stronger large-scale upper-
level trough approaches from the west, deepening the surface low to
around 985-970mb range by Thursday morning as it moves to the
vicinity of our forecast area. This would likely bring an expansive
area of precipitation, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures to the
region Wednesday through Thursday (with impacts likely continuing
into the early parts of the weekend). The broader scale of the 00Z
suite of model guidance has come into much better agreement in
comparison to previous runs, although there was a rather big shift
towards a colder, stronger upper-level trough, especially with the
ECMWF ENS. The cold air is the important part here as 850mb
temperatures ensemble average comes out to around -2 to -4 C (which
is colder than 12Z model guidance, and is as much as -10 C cooler in
the ECWMF ensembles!), which could be supportive of some snow
flakes, perhaps even some light accumulations. Model ensembles are
starting to suggest snow accumulation of GTE 1" in the 20-40%
range, which is fairly high for this far out. While the forecast
will currently only mention rain (due to run-to-run inconsistency),
it`s worth keeping an eye on the snow potential for Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Surface low pressure is located over central Lake Erie with a
surface trough extending south-southwest towards MFD and MNN
from the low. Ahead of the low and trough, winds are south to
southeast with ceilings ranging from MVFR near the lakeshore to
LIFR inland. There are also some showers and widespread
mist/drizzle reducing visibility to MVFR or IFR, with some LIFR
at elevated sites such as CAK. Farther west, winds are turning
more west-northwest with IFR ceilings more common with somewhat
better vsby, but still with some MVFR mist floating around.
Locations east of the trough axis can expect low ceilings to
continue early this morning with ceilings and vsby bottoming
out as the trough axis moves through. West of the trough axis
conditions gradually improve to IFR and eventually MVFR. Expect
a mix of MVFR and IFR to continue through the TAF period. Lake
enhanced showers will kick in today east/southeast of Lake
Erie, impacting CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI at times. While vsby will
gradually improve from west to east through this morning as the
trough axis swings through and switches winds to the WNW,
transient vsby restrictions remain possible in any showers.

Winds range from south-southeast at less than 10 knots from CLE
and BJJ points east with more west-northwest winds at less than
10 knots to the west. Winds will shift west-northwest across the
board with 5-10 knots expected to be common today.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings Friday night. Non-
VFR possible in fog Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will keep the waters a
little choppy through Saturday morning before high pressure builds
in and brings quieter conditions. South winds develop Saturday
night, becoming southwest and strengthening to 15 to 20 knots Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. A cold front moves across the area
Sunday night with high pressure building back in on Monday.
Southeast winds develop by Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders