548
FXUS61 KCLE 091137
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
637 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the northern Great Lakes will extend
a warm front across the area today. Strong low pressure will
pass north of Lake Erie on Wednesday and extend a cold front
across the area. A trough will set up over the lake on Thursday
and brief high pressure will enter for Thursday night. The
pattern will continue to be unsettled going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Plenty of active weather on tap over the next 36 hours as a
series of upper level troughs and surface low pressure systems
move through the Great Lakes region. For the local area, the
main concerns will be light widespread snow across the northern
half of the area today, accumulating snow in NW PA tonight into
Wednesday, and elevated winds with the second system moving
through the region.

A low pressure system is entering Lake Superior this morning
with an associated warm front well to the south over Illinois.
This front will continue to progress east overnight into
Tuesday. On the cold side of the front, snow is expected with
support from an upper trough also moving through the Great Lakes
region. Overall, the trend with this low and snow has been
further north and less impactful, but will continue to time out
a band of categorical PoPs for the northern third of the area
and a daytime accumulation of up to 0.5" to 1" for areas
closest to Lake Erie. Behind the warm front, expecting
temperatures to warm considerably from recent days into the 30s
for most. There will be a break in precipitation this afternoon
and evening, as this first system races away from the forecast
area.

The more impressive of the two low pressure systems will arrive
tonight and pass north of Lake Erie on Wednesday with an
associated cold front tailing through the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Given moderating temperatures across the
region ahead of this system, most precipitation will begin as a
rain/snow mix or all rain across the forecast area. The lone
exception will be in NW PA, where some trapped near-surface
freezing temperatures will remain and the initial precipitation
type may be freezing rain/drizzle. Eventually, the residual warm
nose will get wiped out and there will be a transition to all
snow in NW PA. For much of the area, the rain or rain/snow mix
will likely not be too impactful, other than melting some of the
snow pack that has lasted a couple of weeks. However, for NW PA,
the timing of the system is coming together where there may be
an intense band of snow during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday
into the Wednesday morning commute. This will be due in large
part to the strong lift from the incoming upper trough and
support from the left exit region of the upper jet. The snowfall
trend for NW PA continues to trend higher with 3-5" of snow
expected before snow mixes with rain late Wednesday morning ahead
of the cold front. Therefore, have hoisted a Winter Weather
Advisory for Southern Erie and Crawford Counties in PA from 1 AM
to 10 PM on Wednesday.

As snow is falling in Northwest PA, the surface low will be
passing north of Lake Erie and extending a cold front across the
area. Ahead of this front, a strong low level jet will be moving
through the region and should do fairly well mixing to the
surface and suspect that there will be southwest wind gusts in
the 40 to 45 mph range. There are some probabilities suggesting
that surface wind gusts could reach 50 mph for NW OH and the
Lake Erie shoreline areas and a wind advisory would be needed if
trends increase. With the frontal passage itself, there will be
a quick drop in temperatures and a rapid change to snow for the
area. Snow accumulations for areas outside of NW PA with the
front would be up to 0.5" of new snow. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be earlier in the day before the front in the 30s
and perhaps some lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main forecast question for Wednesday night through Thursday night
will be how much lake effect snow will there be in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest PA before winds back ahead of the next system
on Friday. The thermodynamics for lake effect snow appear pretty
good early on with -12 to -14 C at 850 mb and some residual
remaining across the region. There will also be northwest flow
over the area, which will be a shorter fetch for Lake Erie but
allow for Lake Huron to potentially get involved for a stronger
multi-band setup. At this point, there is uncertainty on where a
stronger band would be with the average location likely on the
NW/PA border. Backing winds with time would shift these bands
further east and snow activity within the forecast area would
shrink with time and become just light snow showers. If a more
dominant band appears likely to to impact NE OH/NW PA, the
Winter Winter Advisory will likely need to be extended/expanded
as needed for Wednesday night into Thursday.

A weak low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on
Friday and bring a band of widespread snow to the forecast area.
Right now, believe that there could be an inch or so of new snow
for the entire area. This system will bring a touch warmer low
level temperatures and this may allow for any lake effect behind
this system to be slower to start until later into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the weekend into next week, the pattern returns to very cold
with more lake effect snow for NE OH/NW PA. A strong upper
trough will dig into the Great Lakes region and extend a cold
front through the area on Saturday morning. This will allow for
a more favorable air mass to tap into the residual moisture from
Friday`s low pressure system and allow for some accumulating
lake effect snow in NE OH/NW PA. There is still plenty of
uncertainty with the placement, timing, and intensity of snow,
but the weekend will have some snow activity to be concerned
about. The broader impacting feature will be temperatures
returning to the teens/20s for highs and lows in the single
digits/teens. Winds will be elevated over the weekend, so wind
chills near or below zero are on the table. There could be some
reprieve later next week with high pressure eventually entering
the region and moderating some temperatures and allowing lake
effect to break up a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Aviation weather looks messy with two systems impacting the area
over the next 24 hours. We are starting off with VFR early this
morning. The first system to move through NEOH and NWPA will be later
this morning through the early afternoon. It will bring a brief
round of light snow with MVFR to possible IFR for a couple
hours during the middle of today. We have TEMPO groups for 2
hours from west to east during the late morning through early
afternoon with potential impacts of brief lower ceilings and
visibilities to do the band of light snow.

After the system today, mostly VFR ceilings will be around later
this afternoon through early evening. The next weather system
will move in later this evening through the end of the TAF
period Wednesday morning. The system tonight will bring bigger
impacts to aviation weather. Rain and snow mix will move in from
west to east across the area, starting as early as 03z this
evening near TOL and FDY. This widespread precip will move
eastward through 12z Wednesday morning. Conditions will likely
drop into lower end MVFR to IFR from west to east overnight.
Locations in NWOH and north central Ohio may change from snow
initially to more rain by the end of this TAF period. Light to
moderate snow will likely impact TAF sites in NEOH and NWPA
through 12z.

Winds are starting out this morning from the south 8 to 14
knots. Winds will increase from the south-southwest later this
morning 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 30 knots later today
into tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected Wednesday with a wintry mix of
rain and snow transitioning back over to snow Wednesday
evening. Periods of snow will be possible Thursday through
Saturday, especially in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Strong southwest to west wind gusts up to 30 to 40
knots are possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled and rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie
today through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend.
A low pressure system will track across the Upper Great Lakes
region today increasing the southerly flow over Lake Erie 15 to
25 knots and waves building, especially in the open water. A
stronger low pressure system will deepen to 29.20 inches as it
tracks through the Great Lakes late tonight into Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds will increase 35 to 40 knot Gales late
tonight and Wednesday. Waves will build to 8 to 13 feet in the
open water late tonight through Wednesday evening. There are
Small Craft Advisories in effect today into tonight. Gale
warnings will take in effect late tonight through Wednesday
evening. As the strong low pressure system exits the region
Wednesday night, the flow will become west-northwestlery 15 to
25 knots. Additional SCA will be needed after the Gale Warning
expires Wednesday night through Thursday.

High pressure will build in over Lake Erie Thursday night into
Friday with a brief lull in the winds and waves. Another clipper
system and cold front will sweep across the Great Lakes on
Saturday with a return of Westerly winds 15 to 30 knots and
higher waves. Additional SCA will likely be needed this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ143>149.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77