823
FXUS61 KCLE 092344
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
744 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to drift to the east through Friday. A low
pressure system will move southeast across the region Saturday into
Sunday and high pressure will build in behind to start next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid Evening Update...

Expanded the Frost Advisory to Ottawa, Erie (OH), Cuyahoga, and
Lake Counties since the latest dew points and expected wind
shift to offshore late tonight support temperatures also
reaching the low to mid 30s in these areas inland from Lake
Erie. Valley locations and southern portions of these counties
will see patchy frost, and the NBM10th and 25th percentile
forecast lows boost confidence in this.

Original Discussion...

Upper level ridging will persist with surface high pressure drifting
eastward through Friday night. The surface high will be positioned
to the east over New York state and New England and will provide
easterly flow tonight into early Friday before shifting out of the
south during the day Friday. With the high overhead, clear skies,
and generally light to calm winds overnight, the area will be
susceptible to radiational cooling and will drop down into the mid
to low 30s. For the majority of the area outside of the lakeshore
counties, a Frost Advisory is active for tomorrow morning. There may
be some isolated spots in sheltered areas within the Frost Advisory,
mainly in the south-central counties of the CWA, that could drop
below freezing as well, but not expecting it to be widespread. For
this forecast package, we upgraded inland Ashtabula, Trumbull, and
Mahoning in Ohio and Crawford, PA to a Freeze warning. Those areas
have the greatest potential given the light winds and radiational
cooling to drop below freezing. As for Erie County PA, there will be
a short window after midnight that a freeze will be possible, as low
temperatures will drop to around 32F, but winds will start to
increase out of the southeast a few hours before sunrise and
conditions will become unfavorable.

With the previously mentioned flow shifting out of south to
southeast with the high building off to the east, temperatures will
warm slightly with the high Friday being in the mid 60s and
overnight lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the high departs to the east a low pressure system will move
southeastward from Lake Superior through the area Saturday through
Sunday. The overall system still has it weakening as it enters the
region, though PoP chances and overall QPF has increased to around a
half an inch. The bulk of the rainfall will be across the eastern
half of the CWA and decrease further west. Models have shown the
system slowing down moving into Sunday as a coastal low pressure
system moves up the east coast over the weekend. Though the bulk of
precipitation will have ended, will need to keep an eye on this
interaction as it may keep some precipitation across the far eastern
portions of the area through Sunday night. Temperatures Saturday
will be slightly muted with the rainfall and cloud cover with highs
in the mid 60s and rebound a little on Sunday to the upper 60s.
Overnight lows over the weekend will be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry, quiet pattern returns for the long term as upper level ridging
builds to the south and high pressure builds in. Only thing to
mention pattern wise, would be a low pressure system moving to the
north of the region that could drag a cold front across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, no widespread precipitation
is expected. Temperatures to start the week will be around normal
for this time of year and may fall a few degrees midweek behind the
aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure remains
in control, but its center will shift from the southern Great
Lakes this evening to offshore of New England by late Friday as
low pressure drops into the northern Great Lakes. This will
allow a warm front to approach from the southwest tonight and
lift northeast of the area by mid Friday morning. In response,
light NE winds this evening will become variable early tonight
before turning light SE late tonight as the warm front moves in.
Winds will further veer to S to SW by mid morning Friday behind
the front, with speeds increasing to 5-15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in widely scattered showers Friday
night, with better chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms and associated non-VFR late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge exits slowly E`ward from Lake Erie before a weak warm front
sweeps N`ward across the lake Friday morning. Behind the warm front,
a ridge builds from the southern Appalachians and vicinity through
Friday night. Ahead of the front, NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5
to 15 knots veer to SE`erly. Behind the front, winds veer to S`erly
to SW`erly and remain mainly 5 to 15 knots. However, winds should
flirt with 20 knots at times Friday night, as the building ridge
interacts with a low that should drift SE`ward across the northern
Great Lakes.

The aforementioned low should drift farther SE`ward to the Lake Erie
region on Saturday and then devolve into a residual trough over and
near Lake Erie and the Upper OH Valley on Saturday night through
Sunday. The low`s trailing cold front should drift E`ward across the
western basin of Lake Erie on Saturday before dissipating over the
central basin by Sunday. Waterspouts are possible with lake-enhanced
showers and thunderstorms along the cold front on Saturday, but
uncertainty regarding the amount of lake-induced instability
precludes explicit mention of waterspouts in our marine forecast at
this time. By Sunday night, a ridge should begin to build from the
central Great Lakes. In response to this surface weather pattern
evolution, S`erly to SW`erly winds should become variable in
direction on Saturday. On Saturday night through Sunday night, winds
are expected to vary between NE`erly and SE`erly. Wind speeds will
primarily be around 5 to 15 knots, but should flirt with 20 knots at
times Sunday night, as the building ridge interacts with the
residual trough.

On Monday through Tuesday, ridging should persist over Lake Erie as
one high pressure center dissipates in vicinity of the Canadian
Maritimes and another high pressure center moves from southern AB
toward southern MB. Accordingly, winds around 5 to 15 knots should
vary between mainly NE`erly and NW`erly. Waves of 3 feet or less are
expected. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected during the
forecast period. However, waves as large as 4 to 5 feet are expected
in open U.S. waters of the eastern basin and especially central
basin Friday night into Saturday morning and Sunday evening into
Sunday night given forecast surface wind directions/speeds and
fetch.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>013-
     017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ014-023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Jaszka