590
FXUS61 KCLE 052002
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
302 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge continues to exit eastward as a cold front
approaches from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. On Saturday, the
front should drift southeastward across Lake Erie and northwest
Ohio before stalling near the southern lakeshore and across
northwest Ohio by early evening. During Saturday night, the
front should essentially stall in vicinity of Lake Erie and
northwest Ohio as one low moves from Nebraska toward the Lower
Missouri River Valley and another low develops over the northern
Great Lakes. On Sunday, the front should sweep southeastward
across the rest of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania as
the former low weakens and moves toward the Tennessee Valley,
while the latter low strengthens slightly and moves toward New
England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft exits slowly E`ward
through tonight as a cold front approaches from the Upper
Midwest and eventually the western Great Lakes. Odds favor dry
weather through daybreak Saturday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the departing ridge. Lows should reach mainly the
15F to 25F range around midnight tonight. Readings should then
moderate slightly by daybreak as a tightening MSLP gradient
between the surface ridge departing slowly and approaching
front`s surface trough allow S`erly to SW`erly surface winds and
associated low-level WAA to increase somewhat in our CWA.

On Saturday, a shortwave trough should move from the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes. At
the surface, the cold front should sweep SE`ward across Lake
Erie and NW OH by sunset as the attendant trough overspreads our
area from the north and west. Low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the cold front, moist-isentropic ascent ahead of the
shortwave trough axis, weak lake-induced CAPE (LICAPE) amidst
lake surface to 850 mb T differences near 10C over ~4C Lake
Erie, and the seeder-feeder process should allow lake-enhanced
precip, mainly in the form of snow and graupel, steady at times
per model sounding data, to develop and stream generally NE`ward
over/downwind of Lake Erie into portions of western NY Saturday
morning into early afternoon. During the late afternoon and
early evening, the lake-enhanced precip, mainly in the form of
snow/graupel and steady at times, should shift S`ward into the
primary snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA and vicinity as the mean low-
level flow veers from SW`erly to W`erly and the low/mid-level
thermodynamic environment remains favorable. In addition, moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis may trigger
isolated showers in the form of snow and graupel across NE OH
and NW PA Saturday morning through afternoon. Daytime snow
accumulations of 1" or less are expected. Odds favor dry weather
elsewhere. Low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should
contribute to afternoon highs reaching the lower to mid 30`s in
our CWA.

Aloft, a very subtle shortwave ridge should build and then
crest E`ward over our region as the first shortwave trough exits
E`ward, a second shortwave trough moves SE`ward from the Mid MO
Valley toward the Lower MO Valley and vicinity, and a third
shortwave trough moves SE`ward from the eastern Canadian
Prairies toward the northwestern Great Lakes and vicinity. At
the surface, the aforementioned front should essentially stall
in vicinity of Lake Erie and NW OH as a low attendant to the
second shortwave trough moves from NE to the Lower MO Valley and
weakens slightly, while a low attendant to the third shortwave
trough develops and deepens slightly over the northern Great
Lakes. Primarily dry weather is expected in our CWA as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the shortwave ridge. However,
a sufficiently-moist mean low-level flow amidst lake surface to
850 mb T differences near 13C over ~4C Lake Erie and weak LICAPE
should allow lake-effect precip, mainly in the form of snow and
graupel and steady at times per model sounding data, to stream
generally E`ward and then ENE`ward across the primary snowbelt
of NE OH/NW PA and vicinity as mean low-level flow backs from
W`erly to WSW`erly ahead of the aforementioned second and third
shortwave trough axes. Nighttime snow accumulations should be 1"
or less. Overnight lows should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday the shortwave trough farther north should move from
the northwestern Great Lakes and Upper MS Valley to the
north-central and southwestern Great Lakes. The attendant
surface low should deepen further, albeit slightly, as it moves
E`ward from the northern Great Lakes toward far-northern NY.
Also at the surface, the front should remain essentially stalled
in vicinity of Lake Erie and NW OH through roughly midday. The
front should then sweep SE`ward and cross the rest of our
region by early evening. This front will usher-in a colder air
mass. Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30`s prior to
the arrival of colder air behind the front.

Lingering LES should stream generally NE`ward and then NNE`ward
from Lake Erie Sunday morning through early afternoon as mean
low-level flow backs to SW`erly and then to SSW`erly ahead of
the shortwave trough axis. Low/mid-level moisture advection well
ahead of the shortwave trough axis should allow convergence and
associated ascent along the surface and upper-reaches of the
front to trigger scattered and primarily light snow showers
across our entire CWA. In addition, the seeder-feeder process
and release of weak LICAPE via low-level convergence and ascent
along the front should result in a brief burst of steadier lake-
enhanced snow over Lake Erie and in/near the counties along the
central and eastern portions of the lake. By early evening,
prior to sunset, a NW`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air over/downwind of Lake Erie and weak LICAPE should
allow primarily light lake-effect snow (LES) to stream generally
SE`ward from central and eastern portions of the lake. Daytime
snow accumulations should total 1" or less, but localized totals
up to 2" are possible in the higher terrain of Erie County, PA.

During Sunday night, the shortwave trough axis should move
E`ward to Lake Ontario and central PA as a shortwave ridge
builds from the north-central U.S. At the surface, the low
should move from far-northern NY to the Gulf of Maine and be
followed by a surface ridge building from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. As mean low-level flow veers
from NW`erly to NNE`erly amidst weak LICAPE, lingering and
light LES should stream generally SE`ward, then S`ward, and
eventually SSW`ward before dissipating by daybreak as LICAPE
wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion and synoptic low-level
dry air advection. Additional snow accumulations are forecast to
be 1" or less. Low-level CAA behind the front should contribute
to lows reaching mainly the 10F to lower 20`s range by daybreak
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday through Monday night, current odds favor dry weather
since the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should
continue to build from the west on Monday and then crest E`ward
over our CWA and vicinity Monday night. Along the backside of
the ridge, a moisture-starved warm front should sweep NE`ward
through our region Monday night. Continued CAA at the surface
and aloft on Monday will contribute to afternoon highs reaching
only the 20`s to 30F. Monday evening, lows are expected to reach
mainly the 5F to 15F range. Readings should begin to moderate
by the predawn hours of Tuesday morning given the development of
WAA at the surface and aloft ahead of and behind the warm front.

Large discrepancies in NWP model guidance exist Tuesday through
Friday of the upcoming week, leading to low confidence in the
official forecast. In general, cyclonic and primarily W`erly to
NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our region. At the surface, net troughing should impact
northern OH and NW PA. We should remain in the relatively-warm
sector through Tuesday night before a cold front sweeps
generally E`ward through our region on Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Northern OH and NW PA should then remain in the
cold sector through Friday. Daytime highs should reach mainly
the mid to upper 30`s on Tuesday and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s
on Wednesday, prior to the cold front passage. In between,
overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak Wednesday. Later in the week, overnight lows
should reach the 20`s around daybreak Thursday and be followed
by afternoon highs in the lower to mid 30`s. Lows around 15F to
25F around daybreak Friday should be followed by afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 20`s amidst CAA at the surface and aloft,
behind the cold front.

Periods of primarily snow are expected due to the following:
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes;
convergence and moist ascent along surface trough axes and the
cold front. Snow accumulations are possible, but uncertain at
this juncture. Moderation of the tropospheric column at/near the
surface should allow snow to mix with or change to rain at times
on Tuesday through Wednesday evening. In addition, behind the
cold front, the environment should support LES occurrence overnight
Wednesday night through Friday, but all of the following remain
very uncertain: mean low-level flow direction; LES placement,
intensity, and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A patch of MVFR stratus lingers from MFD/CAK to CLE until around
22Z or so before dissolving out. VFR ceilings in cirrus ahead of
a low pressure system over the upper Mississippi Valley. Clouds
increase and lower through the period, back to MVFR/IFR late in
the TAF with the arrival of a cold front and isolated to
scattered snow showers. No mention for the snow showers as the
best chances will lie just beyond the TAF period for now, and
will likely be introduced for the upcoming 00Z set of TAFs.
Winds generally southwest 10-15kts through the period with
possible gusts to 20kts at CLE/FDY.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered light snow showers on
Saturday afternoon. Non-VFR more likely in widespread light
snow on Sunday. Non-VFR possible again in snow showers on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase 15-25kts ahead of a Saturday cold front,
becoming westerly after 15Z Saturday and wave heights Cleveland and
east becoming 3-5ft. Winds ease briefly Saturday night, then Sunday
back to around 10-20kts out of the northwest and wave heights 3-5ft
once again. Winds/wave heights variable through Monday night
becoming southwesterly Tuesday increasing to 20-30kts, keeping them
just sub-gale for now as a deepening area of low pressure
approaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26