771
FXUS61 KCLE 080019
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
719 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the region Saturday with high
pressure returning for Sunday and Monday. The next system will
move across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for this evening with no changes
needed.

Original Discussion...

Despite being very cold outside, it turned out to be a sunny
afternoon across the area thanks to high pressure over the
region. Temperatures are generally in the middle to upper 20s
this afternoon. High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
The next storm system that will impact our area is currently
over northern Nevada at this afternoon. This mid level wave will
race eastward on a very fast jet stream near 150+ knots and
arrive over the Upper Ohio Valley region by tomorrow afternoon.
In response, a surface low pressure system will develop near the
Ozarks region late tonight and track eastward through the Ohio
on Saturday. The track of this surface low will follow closely
along the Ohio River as it move across the Ohio Valley Saturday.
Light wintry mix of precipitation will develop across the region
starting midday Saturday, becoming more widespread during the
afternoon and early evening.

Surface temperatures will play a key role on how long the
freezing rain potential will last into the afternoon. The wintry
mix will be mainly in the form of light sleet and freezing rain
becoming majority of freezing rain during the afternoon.
Temperatures may edge just above freezing across our southern
CWA which will change the precip to just rain sometime in the
afternoon. As low pressure system moves east of the area, colder
air will wrap around back into the area and change any lingering
precip to light snow before ending from west to east Saturday
evening. The majority of the precip will end before 06z Saturday
evening. There may some lingering lake effect or lake enhanced
snow showers for the primary snowbelt that continue into early
Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for
the entire area from 18z Saturday to 06z Sunday for the
potential of the wintry mix causing travel impacts. Overall, ice
accumulations of .05" to .20" may be possible as well as some
light sleet accumulations. Some areas south of Highway 30 may
lesser amounts of the wintry mix due to temperatures warming up
above freezing during the afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory
will last a little longer till 12z Sunday morning for the
potential of lingering snow showers. Light snowfall
accumulations are possible for NEOH and NWPA of 1 to 3 inches
as well as ling ice accumulations. See the latest Winter
Weather Advisory details for the most current information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Current odds favor fair weather during this period as a ridge at the
surface and aloft builds from the Upper Midwest, eventually crests
generally E`ward over our region, and is accompanied by a
stabilizing subsidence inversion. An unusually-cold air mass is
expected to linger across the Lake Erie region, Upper OH Valley, and
vicinity. High temperatures are expected to reach mainly the mid
20`s to lower 30`s in NW PA and the upper 20`s to mid 30`s in
northern OH Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows are forecast to reach
mainly the 15F to 20F range around daybreak Monday. Afternoon highs
on Monday are expected to reach the mid to upper 20`s in NW PA and
mainly the upper 20`s to mid 30`s in northern OH. Overnight lows
should reach the 10F to 15F range in NW PA and the 15F to 25F range
in northern OH during the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Temperatures
are then forecast to moderate slightly by daybreak as net WAA
strengthens along the western flank of the aforementioned low-level
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Tuesday, a weak cold front should sweep SE`ward across our region
and then settle in vicinity of the spine of the Appalachian
Mountains this Tuesday night through Thursday as multiple surface
lows move NE`ward along the front. Aloft, W`erly flow and embedded
shortwave disturbances affect our region. The strongest of these
disturbances should traverse our region from west to east on
Thursday. Moist isentropic ascent in the warm conveyor belt of each
low pressure system and ahead of each shortwave trough axis, and low-
low-level convergence/moist ascent accompanying the cold front
passage should allow periods of precip, mainly in the form of snow,
to impact our region as surface wet-bulb temperatures should be 32F
or colder. However, an elevated melting layer may overspread roughly
the eastern two-thirds of our CWA Wednesday night into Thursday
morning and allow snow to mix with or change to sleet and/or
freezing rain for a time. While it is too soon to mention specific
snow and ice accumulations, the potential exists for widespread and
impactful wintry precip amounts. We will continue to monitor trends
in forecast model guidance very closely in the coming days. Daytime
highs should reach mainly the upper 20`s to lower 30`s on Tuesday
through Thursday, respectively, as our region should reside within
the cold sector. Lows should reach mainly the 15F to 25F range
Tuesday night and Wednesday night, respectively.

Current odds favor fair weather this Thursday night into Friday as a
ridge at the surface and aloft builds E`ward and eventually crests
over our region. However, during Friday afternoon and early evening,
the next low pressure system at the surface and aloft is expected to
approach our region from the Intermountain West and Great Plains.
Moist isentropic ascent aloft, between the axes of the ridge and
trough, may allow snow to blossom over portions of our region
between midday and sunset. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Dry and VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through
early Saturday afternoon, with cigs slowly lowering as a cirrus
shield moves in ahead of low pressure that will track through
the Ohio Valley Saturday evening. This low will bring snow and
sleet quickly changing to mainly freezing rain late Saturday
afternoon and evening, leading to deteriorating flight
conditions. Cigs will quickly lower to MVFR once the precip
begins, with IFR cigs and vis likely by mid evening. The
heaviest precip will occur at KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI.
Some LIFR is possible in the 21-23Z timeframe, but kept it out
of the TAFs at this time. Precip will start to change back to
snow after the TAF period in the 00-06Z Sunday timeframe from
west to east as colder air filters in behind the low.

Light WSW to SW winds this evening and early tonight will become
E to SE at 5-10 knots late tonight and Saturday morning before
turning more NE in the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in a wintry mix of rain, freezing
rain, sleet, and snow, changing to mainly snow, Saturday night
through early Sunday. Non-VFR may return in snow across the
southern half of the area on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
W`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots late this afternoon ease to
around 5 to 10 knots and become variable in direction this evening
through the overnight as a ridge continues to build from the western
Great Lakes. On Saturday, winds become primarily E`erly to NE`erly
and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots as the ridge exits E`ward and
interacts with a trough extending to Lake Erie from a low that will
move ENE`ward in vicinity of the OH Valley. During Saturday night,
the trough is expected to linger over Lake Erie as the low moves
farther ENE`ward toward Atlantic waters near Cape Cod. This will
allow NE`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to back to NW`erly or
W`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots. On Sunday through Monday,
primarily W`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected as a ridge
builds from the Upper Midwest. This ridge exits E`ward Monday night,
which should allow primarily W`erly winds to ease to around 5 knots
and become variable in direction. A weak cold front should sweep
SE`ward across Lake Erie on Tuesday and be followed by NW`erly to
N`erly winds freshening to 5 to 15 knots. Another ridge should build
from the north-central United States this Tuesday night through
Wednesday as the front settles in vicinity of the spine of the
Appalachians. Accordingly, N`erly to NE`erly winds around 10 to 15
knots should impact Lake Erie.

Waves will likely be two feet or less through the forecast period
based on our wind forecast and extensive ice cover on Lake Erie.
However, confidence in the wave forecast is low given uncertainty
regarding the exact coverage of ice. Small Craft Advisory issuance
remains suspended until further notice due to extensive ice cover.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
     for OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...10/Jaszka