390
FXUS61 KCLE 161142
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
742 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist into Friday. A warm front will lift
north across the area Friday night into Saturday ahead of a strong low
pressure system. This system will extend a cold front east through
the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure building from the
south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside of the potential for frost late tonight into Friday
morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term
period as high pressure persists across the region into Friday,
followed by a warm front lifting northeast through the area late
Friday.

The frost/freeze potential should be a bit more widespread
tonight into Friday morning as 925 mb winds diminish, leading to
nearly calm surface winds across the eastern half of the area.
Will let the current Frost Advisory run through this morning
before issuing the next set of headlines for tonight. The
highest confidence for frost/freeze conditions is generally
along and east of the I-71 corridor.

Otherwise, a warm front will lift northeast through the region late
Friday which could result in scattered rain showers, particularly
across the far north and northeast portion of the area. Mainly
seasonable temperatures are expected for the near term period in
the low to mid-60s. Some upper 60s to lower 70s are possible
across Northwest Ohio behind the warm front Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather is likely for the short term period, particularly Saturday
night into Sunday as a potentially significant system develops
and moves northeast through the Lower Great Lakes region. Some
notable updates with this forecast package include the addition
of an SPC marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Saturday
evening and overnight (day 3) as well as confidence increasing
for strong wind gusts on Sunday behind the cold front.

Much of Saturday should stay dry ahead of the approaching system
as increasing warm air advection results in well-above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. By late Saturday
evening and overnight, widespread rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will begin to arrive from the west, aided by a
strong south to southwest LLJ of 45 to 50 knots as a large
upper- level trough moves east through the Great Lakes. At this
point, the main concern with any thunderstorms that could become
strong to severe is a damaging wind gust threat given the
robust low- level wind field.

By Sunday morning, a cold front will be moving east through the
area, with re-development of showers and storms found along
and east of the I-77 corridor. The low- level wind field will
continue to strengthen in response to a likely deepening low
pressure to the northwest across the Central Great Lakes. Area
soundings do indicate the potential for a few stronger storms
given the favorable high shear environment, though uncertainty
remains on the available instability. If any stronger storms do
form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat, followed
by a low-end "spin- up" tornado threat, given modest low-level
wind profiles yielding 150 to 200 m2/s2 of SRH. Will also need
to monitor the potential for strong wind gusts behind the cold
front with mixing heights forecast to reach near 850 mb Sunday
afternoon.

It`s worth noting that the development of this upper-level
trough is resulting from the phasing of the significant system
that recently impacted western Alaska. There has been remarkable
upper-level consensus amongst model guidance thus far, though
the specific surface features (i.e. cyclogenesis location and
strength), still remain uncertain and will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure is favored to build across the region from the
south on Monday as a brief upper-level ridge slides east through
the Great Lakes ahead of the next system. Active weather will
return by Tuesday into Wednesday as another potent upper-level
trough and cold front sweep east through the Great Lakes,
ushering in another round of widespread precipitation and
strong wind gusts on Tuesday. Some wrap-around showers
associated with the TROWAL and/or lake enhanced rain will likely
persist across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on
Wednesday as 850 mb temperatures fall to near 1 degrees C.

It appears mainly seasonable temperatures in the low to mid-60s
are expected for much of the long term period. Some upper 50s
may begin to arrive by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast
into the region today. Skies are clear at the start of the
period except scattered clouds near CLE/ERI around 3K feet.
Visibility at FDY may briefly dip below 6 miles at 12Z at FDY
but will otherwise be unrestricted at terminals through the
remainder of the TAF period. Light north to northeast winds are
expected to continue into tonight when they go light and
variable or develop out of the southeast.

Outlook...VFR is expected through Friday. Scattered showers
with a warm front may bring limited non-VFR Friday night. Strong
low pressure will track into the Great Lakes on Sunday, pushing
a cold front across the local area. Non-VFR due to
showers/possible thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible with
this system, especially Sunday and Sunday night. Non VFR
possible downwind of Lake Erie into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast over
Lake Erie today. North to northeast winds early this morning will
decrease into the 10-15 knot range towards sunrise which will allow
wave heights to drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The
Advisory is scheduled to expire at 8 AM and that looks on track.

Good marine conditions are expected on Friday with southerly winds
increasing through the day on Saturday. A strengthening low pressure
system is forecast to impact the area over the weekend. Low pressure
is expected to track out of the Plains, and the best model consensus
shows a strengthening low passing near or just north of Lake Erie.
While some uncertainty does remain in the track and strength of this
system, this solution would pull a strong cold front east across
Lake Erie on Sunday with the potential for gale force winds. The
wind and wave forecast with this system has trended considerably
upward on this cycle and will continue to watch the storm track and
over the next couple days. Adjustments to timing and track remain
possible so stay tuned to updated forecasts. If the strong southwest
to west wind occurs, we will also need to monitor for low water
conditions on the western basin of Lake Erie. Models do indicate
this strong system will quickly depart to the northeast with winds
backing around to the southwest by either Monday or Monday evening.
This looks to be the beginning of a more active pattern as the next
system could cross Lake Erie as early as Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-022-023-
     032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10