Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
589 FXUS61 KCLE 010203 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system coming down from southern Canada will build over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight through Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area Tuesday as high pressure moves east of the region. A cold front will approach the area for Wednesday afternoon and move through Wednesday night. This front will likely stall out over the Ohio Valley on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds have been making good progress clearing from the north with some residual lake effect clouds filling in behind it. The trend should be for clouds to eventually clear overnight with increasing subsidence and drier air overspreading Lake Erie. The forecast remains on track with a much cooler night in the 50s. Previous discussion... Our weather will be very nice and quiet this evening through Monday night. If you have been outside today, you likely noticed the big change in airmass compared to just 24 hours ago. A large high pressure system is coming down from southern Canada and slowly building over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this evening. This high pressure will bring a refreshing break from the summer heat and humidity this evening through Monday night. Because of the cooler airmass at the surface and aloft, we are seeing lake effect clouds coming off of Lake Erie and have been more concentrated in our Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA. Outside of the area, there is sunshine with a few fair weather clouds over NWOH and down along the Highway 30 corridor into central Ohio. Under the cloud cover this afternoon, it has felt a little fall-like with temperatures stuck in the low to mid 60s. Areas that saw more sunshine today, have recovered back to the lower and mid 70s. The gusty northerly flow this afternoon will gradually relax as wind speeds will taper off to 10 mph or less later this evening and overnight. The lake effect cloud cover will also slowly decrease and scattered out late this evening into the overnight. Eventually all locations will have mostly clear skies by sunrise Monday morning. Tonight`s weather will be perfect to give the air conditioning a break and open up the windows for some fresh air. Overnight temperatures will be rather cool with low to mid 50s expected. There could be a few spots that drop down to the upper 40s if the skies clear out quicker and the winds can calm down sooner. Monday and the first day of July looks absolutely fantastic. The center of high pressure will be just just north of Lake Erie as it slowly moves eastward through the Great Lakes region. We will all see plenty of sunshine and blue skies on Monday. Winds will become northeaster 5 to 10 mph. After a cool start in the 50s, temperatures will max out in the lower to middle 70s. We will have one more cool and comfortable night Monday night with temperatures dropping back down in to the lower and mid 50s. Enjoy this lower humidity and nicer weather while you can because the warmer temps and mugginess will start coming back on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be departing to the east Tuesday and Tuesday night as upper level heights rise, allowing for temperatures and dew points to begin creeping back up. Expect highs to warm well into the 80s for Tuesday with lows struggling to dip much below the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night amid continued warm air advection. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night with some mid and high-level clouds drifting through at times. A shortwave will slide through the northern Great Lakes on the periphery of upper-level ridging Wednesday into Wednesday evening, pushing a cold front and the next rain chance in from the northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening. This cold front will attempt to sag through Wednesday night, though with the shortwave only glancing our region as ridging remains over the southern U.S. there is uncertainty regarding how quickly the front can push through. Regarding rain/thunderstorm potential, forcing with the sagging front will not be all that strong as the better jet support will stay to our north. However, the front is expected to begin pushing in near peak heating on Wednesday. With dew points warming to near or over 70 and high temperatures on either side of 90, moderate and uncapped instability will develop Wednesday afternoon despite the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates expected to be in place. This should allow scattered convection to develop, with well-mixed low- levels and moderate (30-40 knots) of deep-layer shear supporting organized convection with decent cold pools. Despite the weak forcing, have chance POPs near Toledo increasing to likely (60-70%) across the rest of our area Wednesday afternoon and evening as it seems likely that more of the area sees measurable rain than not. However, with the relatively weak forcing expect rain amounts to be highly variable with parts of the area continuing to miss out, meaning any drought relief will be hit or miss. The very moist environment, sagging/slow-moving nature of the front, and deep-layer flow nearly paralleling the front will support a localized training convection and heavy rain risk, though again am not expecting a particularly widespread coverage of heavy rain amounts. At least some potential for severe weather (mainly in the form of strong to damaging winds) will also likely exist, though details on that will be honed much better as we get closer. Drier weather will try returning from the north/northwest Wednesday night, though the front may not entirely clear our southern counties. It will be unpleasantly hot and humid on Wednesday as strong heating of a very moist air mass leads to highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s with dew points reaching or exceeding 70. Heat index values are currently forecast to remain just shy of advisory criteria (100F) though mid to upper 90s seem like a solid bet, especially along and west of the I-77 corridor. Lows will struggle to fall much below the upper 60s or lower 70s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A somewhat unsettled pattern is expected through the long term as we settle into westerly flow aloft on the northern edge of a flattening ridge over the southeastern US. Confidence in timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms is relatively low this far out. We should see a relative lull to start Thursday assuming the prior front pushes far enough south. However, the front will return north as a warm front later Thursday or Thursday night, quickly bringing a humid and more unstable airmass back into the local area. Because of this, much of the area has at least a slight chance or chance of rain mentioned Thursday, with chance POPs expanding north Thursday night. A larger trough will approach on Friday and move into the region on Saturday, pushing a cold front through late Friday night or Saturday from west to east. Expect a period of higher shower and storm chances ahead of this cold front Friday afternoon and evening, and perhaps again on Saturday from eastern OH into PA depending on if the front is able to clear or not. If the front doesn`t yet clear by Saturday there`s greater confidence it`ll clear out by Sunday, allowing drier and somewhat cooler weather to move in. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... MVFR clouds continue across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania terminals within a cool northwest flow and with enhancement off Lake Erie. The back edge of the cloud deck will approach Cleveland towards 01Z but will take a few hours to reach CAK/YNG and ERI. Once clouds scatter out, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF period. North winds remain breezy with gusts 20 knots at 00Z but gusts should drop off quickly except downwind of Lake Erie where it may take a couple hours. Otherwise winds will remain out of the north to northeast through the period. Winds will increase some again after 14Z Monday into the 8-14 knot range. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Northwest winds this afternoon will shift north-northeast this evening, with speeds of 15 to 20 knots (briefly over 20 knots this evening) common. This will build waves sufficiently to warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions along with an accompanying high risk for rip currents from Lorain County points northeast through tonight. Also added Erie County and the adjacent nearshore waters to the headline, as the winds are expected to gain enough easterly component this evening to build higher waves that far west. As high pressure builds in late tonight into Monday morning winds and waves will gradually improve, allowing the headlines to come down by 12z/8 AM Monday. Generally tranquil conditions are then expected through Tuesday night. Southerly winds will become brisk ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with speeds potentially reaching 20 knots for a time. The offshore nature of the flow makes the need for a Small Craft Advisory uncertain, though if the wind forecast trends stronger it is possible one will be needed for a relatively brief window. Conditions are expected to be relatively tranquil Wednesday night through the end of the week. Thunderstorms are possible over the lake Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additional occasional thunderstorm chances are possible over the waters Thursday night through Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT Monday for OHZ009>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ001. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Sullivan