104
FXUS61 KCLE 241821
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will persist across the area through Tuesday.
High pressure will gradually build east across the region on
Wednesday and remain through Thursday. A weak cold front crosses
the area again on Thursday night with high pressure building
back in over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler temperatures and lake effect rain showers are expected
the next couple days, cloistering the region away from the more
typical late-summer warmth. As an upper-level trough builds into
the Great Lakes region, low-level convergence along a surface
trough will be the focus for isolated rain showers downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this
evening.

An uptick in showery activity is expected Monday and Monday
night as deep, cold air aloft becomes entrenched over the Great
Lakes. Steep low-level lapse rates will allow lake effect rain
streaming off of Lake Michigan to impact most of the area Monday
afternoon before becoming more limited to the typical "snowbelt
region" (sorry) of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
However, relative rainfall intensity will actually increase
Monday night, with moderate rainfall rainfall rates as times,
with embedded thunderstorm actually possible; the 12Z NAM shows
lake-induced CAPE (via BUFKIT) exceeding 1000 J/kg Mon afternoon
through Monday night. QPF amounts of up to around 0.5" may be
expected in lakeshore counties, including Cuyahoga, Lake,
Geauga, Ashtabula, and Erie PA.

As alluded to before, temperatures will be below normal, with
Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Overnight
lows will be downright chilly with temperatures in the upper 40s
to low 50s. Toledo will be within a few degrees of the record
temperature (see climate section for more details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
It will feel like deja vu as we takes Monday`s weather forecast
and nearly copy it over to Tuesday with cooler temperatures and
isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers are expected
areawide. Light, scattered lake effect rain showers continue in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night into
Wednesday, gradually dwindling as high pressure takes a hold of
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning is likely to be the coldest temperatures of
the forecast period, with record lows forecast at Toledo (within
about 5-10 degrees at other climate sites).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure shifts eastward on Thursday, with return southwest
flow bringing high temperatures back into the mid 70s. A weak
cold front swings through Thursday night, with light lake effect
rain showers once again Thursday night into Friday morning,
primarily downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. High pressure returns to the Great Lakes region
over the weekend, with temperatures remaining below normal
(highs in the mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Aloft, WSW`erly to W`erly flow persists over our region as a low
drifts SSE`ward over the southern James Bay area through 18Z/Mon.
Simultaneously and at the surface, a trough lingers over/near
the eastern Great Lakes as a ridge attempts to build from the
northern/central Great Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. Our
regional surface winds trend W`erly to NW`erly around 5 to 15
knots through the TAF period.

Primarily VFR and fair weather are expected through 18Z/Mon.
Scattered to broken cumuli with bases near 4kft AGL over
northern OH and NW PA are expected to dissipate with nocturnal
cooling between 22Z/Sun and 00Z/Mon. After ~02Z/Mon, lake-effect
stratocumuli and periodic rain showers should stream generally
ESE`ward over/downwind of Lake Erie and impact NW PA, including
KERI, and portions of NE and north-central OH, including KYNG
and KCLE. Occasional MVFR are possible with the lake-effect
clouds and especially precip.

Outlook...Lake-effect rain showers are expected the rest of Monday
through about midday Wednesday, generally east and southeast of
Lake Erie. These rain showers will be most-persistent in NW PA
and NE OH. Note: scattered to widespread rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms should occur during the mid-afternoon
through early evening hours of Monday and scattered rain showers
should occur during the afternoon through early evening hours
of Tuesday as disturbances traverse our area. Scattered rain
showers are possible Thursday afternoon and evening with the
approach and eventual passage of a cold front. Non-VFR should
accompany any shower or storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will become a little choppy today and less ideal
by tomorrow. A cold front is moving across the lake this morning.
Westerly winds will follow the passage of the cold front today 10 to
15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. A secondary cold front will push
across the lake late tonight into early Monday. Winds will increase
late tonight through Tuesday westerly to northwesterly 10 to 20
knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. There is the potential for lake
headlines including Small Craft Advisories and possibly Beach Hazard
Statements for rip currents might be needed late tonight through
Tuesday. A chance of waterspouts will be possible on Lake Erie late
tonight through Tuesday with the push of cooler temperatures moving
over the warmer lake. Marine conditions will improve towards the
middle and end of this week. Winds will become west-southwesterly 5
to 15 knots by Wednesday and Thursday and waves of 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.

Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
08-26   45(1964)       38(1958)       47(1958)       41(1914)       40(1897)       47(1958)
08-27   48(1969)       36(1946)       49(1963)       44(1914)       43(1969)       47(1954)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77
CLIMATE...