784
FXUS61 KCLE 260152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sweeps east across the area tonight as low pressure
over the central Great Lakes exits east. Strong high pressure
will build south out of Canada from Saturday night through
Sunday night. A warm front will lift north across the area late
Monday, followed by a cold front late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for the overnight. The steadiest
rain is gradually moving eastward, so tweaked the timing of the
back edge of the higher PoPs. Most areas will see a break in the
04-6Z timeframe before some additional showers drop into the
region in the 08-15Z timeframe as the cold front and associated
mid/upper trough axis slide overhead.

6:30 PM Update...

Convection has reached peak intensity and organization and will
gradually subside with sunset as the atmosphere becomes
increasingly worked over from widespread precip. Expanded
categorical PoPs eastward faster this evening based on radar
trends. The biggest impact over the next 2 hours or so will be
locally torrential rainfall rates since these are relatively low
topped cells with low LCL heights, PWATS over 1.2 inches, deep
warm cloud layers for April, and some repeated
development/training. Will continue to monitor for localized
flooding. A small area of enhanced shear in NE Ohio
characterized by effective bulk shear values of 30-35 knots and
0-1 Km SRH of up to 150 J/Kg has led to a couple of rotating
cells, but luckily the relatively higher LCL heights in that
area has kept that under control. This will also be monitored,
but again, expect convection to begin to diminish with sunset.

Original Discussion...

Active weather late this afternoon and this evening. Showers and
storms are pushing in from the west/southwest and also
developing and increasing in coverage across the local area
ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front. Activity will
be peaking in coverage and intensity through 8 or 9 PM. There is
just enough instability and shear that we`ve noted a few weakly
rotating updrafts on radar...still not expecting a notable
severe weather threat this evening, though given the weak
rotation noted to this point, will need to make sure a cell or
two doesn`t rotate/intensify a bit more than we`ve observed so
far. Gusty winds and small hail would be the main threat, with
any tornado threat pretty unlikely and of the brief/weak variety
if something were to happen. The fairly widespread coverage of
storms should cause instability to start waining by 6 or 7 PM,
so any very marginal severe threat should begin decreasing at
that time. Storms are slow-moving, with some back-building
noted across Northwest OH. The environment supports efficient
rain rates, with radar estimating up to 2.50" of rain thus far
in parts of Seneca/Wyandot Counties. While we aren`t expecting
widespread flooding, will need to continue to monitor for
training/back-building convection, which could cause localized
2-3" totals in a short time and pose an isolated flash flood
risk if it occurs over an urban or otherwise prone area.

The cold front sweeps through late this evening from west to
east, with a secondary trough pushing southeast overnight
tonight. The bulk of the convection this afternoon/evening is
pre-frontal, with a secondary line of showers possibly
accompanying the front. There will likely be some drizzle or
showers with the secondary trough, especially downwind of Lake
Erie, with this activity lingering into Saturday morning in
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Otherwise, we`ll all be cloudy or
mostly cloudy to start Saturday, with gradual clearing from the
west Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. It will likely
take until some point Saturday night for clouds southeast of
Lake Erie to clear out.

Lows tonight will dip into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Not much
temperature rise on Saturday, with highs ranging from the upper
40s/lower 50s in Northeast OH and Northwest PA to near 60 along
the I-75 corridor. Lows Saturday night will mainly dip into the
30s (with a few 40s along the Lake Erie shoreline)...conditions
are somewhat favorable for radiational cooling Saturday night
with clearing skies and high pressure building in. However,
winds may take most of the night to decouple. There will likely
be some frost in low-lying areas away from Lake Erie,
particularly in parts of North Central and Northeast OH, though
a combination of the lingering wind and some question of how
quickly clouds downwind of the lake clear does lead to some
question of where/how widespread any frost is at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This short term period will favor quiet weather with high pressure
in control. A Canadian high pressure system will track across the
eastern Great Lakes region Sunday and continue onward towards the
Mid-Atlantic Region on Monday. High temperatures on Sunday will
range from the upper 50s to middle 60s with mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will again be fairly cool Sunday night with overnight
lows in the upper 30s over far NEOH and NWPA to the mid 40s over
NWOH. There could be some patchy frost in the colder spots of NEOH
and NWPA Sunday night. A light southerly flow on the backside of the
high pressure will return on Monday. High temperatures Monday will
be warmer in the lower to middle 70s. There may be a lake breeze
Monday that tries to move off the lakeshore during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main concern for next week will the severe weather potential on
Tuesday. A rather strong shortwave trough will track across the
Great Lakes region Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will slide
southeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s due to strong warm, moist air advection.
Thermodynamics will favor for the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Moderate to strong instablilty will develop with
MLCAPE values 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Lapse rates will exceed 7 C/km over
the region. Surface dewpoints will climb into the mid 60s.
Sufficient shear will support multiple storm clusters and perhaps a
couple supercells.

The front will move through the region Tuesday night and high
pressure will build over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. Another shortwave trough will track across the Midwest
into the Ohio Valley Thursday. A warm front will lift back northward
across the region late Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread showers will continue the rest of the evening, with
mainly VFR cigs but MVFR or lower visibility at times where
locally heavier rain occurs. Some embedded thunder will continue
another hour or so around KCAK and KYNG, but the threat for
thunderstorms is rapidly decreasing. Expect the bulk of the rain
to end from west to east in the 04-06Z timeframe, but then the
focus will shift to low cigs overnight into Saturday morning due
to lingering low-level moisture and the axis of the mid/upper
trough rotating overhead. Brought in solid MVFR conditions
overnight, with IFR to LIFR looking increasingly likely at KMFD,
KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Additional light showers are also
expected in the 08-16Z timeframe with the trough axis and cold
front. Cigs will gradually improve Saturday afternoon, but NE
Ohio and NW PA are likely to stay MVFR through the end of the
TAF cycle.

Winds will turn more westerly late this evening and early
tonight then northwesterly late tonight as the cold front
crosses the region. NW winds will increase to 15-20 knots
Saturday, with gusts of 20-25 knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR clouds will gradually improve by Saturday
night. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will track across Lake Erie this evening
followed by a cold frontal passage tonight. Northwest flow will
increase 15 to 20 knots behind the cold front late tonight into
Saturday. A Small Craft headlines will likely be needed for much of
the central and eastern basins of the lake Saturday into the
evening. High pressure will build over Lake Erie on Sunday with
lighter winds. A light southerly flow will return over the lake by
Monday. The next opportunity for potential Small Craft conditions
might be on Tuesday ahead of a cold front, with offshore southwest
flow of 15 to 25 knots expected to develop. Will also need to
monitor the potential for a few strong to severe storms to impact
the lake Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back
over the lake on Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...77