320
FXUS61 KCLE 150541
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move across the region this evening into the
overnight. High pressure will build in to the north on Wednesday and
move eastward through the end of the week. This weekend, a low
pressure system will move to the north of the region brining a cold
front through Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry, quiet weather will continue through the near term as upper
level ridging builds into the south-central CONUS. A weak cold front
will be crossing the region late tonight into Wednesday, though with
a fairly dry airmass, little to no precipitation is expected. Only
area that may see some light precipitation would be far northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, but still not expecting anything
measurable overnight. High pressure will build in to the north
behind the front starting on Wednesday.

Other forecast note for the near term would be the frost/freeze
potential for Wednesday night. As the high pressure drifts eastward,
the environmental will be conducive for radiational cooling as winds
will be light to calm. Temperatures overnight will be down into the
mid to upper 30s across the south and eastern portions of the CWA
with parts of northwest Pennsylvania potentially seeing low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather remains through the short term as the surface high
pressure builds eastward to the end the week. Similar to Wednesday
night, there will be frost/freeze potential on Thursday night. Only
difference between Wednesday and Thursday is that the high pressure
will be more directly overhead, and with clear skies and calm winds,
radiational cooling will be more effective and widespread. Areas
east of I-71 away from the lakeshore will be in the mid 30s, with
eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania down into the low 30s. Out
west, cloud cover will start to move in so it will limit how cool
the area will get, but lows will still be in the upper 30s to low
40s.

On Friday a warm front will move north across the region and there
will be a low chance for precipitation Friday evening into the
overnight. Temperatures will also start to climb back up with the
southerly flow with highs on Friday being in the mid to upper 60s
and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather is in store for the long term as an upper level
trough moves across southern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
A surface low will track to the north of the region and drag a
cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. There is high
confidence in widespread precipitation for this time period with
a few isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Though there is
some uncertainty in how the overall system develops over the
course of the weekend. Upper level ridging will build in behind
to start next week and cooler, drier weather is expected for the
majority of the region. Temperatures will be seasonally
average, or just slightly below average for the long term, with
the only exception being Saturday after the warm front with high
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure is advancing into the region behind a cold front.
Some low level moisture is turning into some low VFR/MVFR
clouds across northern Ohio. There may be some brief ceilings
before the mid-level clouds enter later this morning. Northerly
flow off Lake Erie may allow for these 2500-4000 ft clouds to
continue under the mid cloud deck in North Central and Northeast
Ohio. Otherwise, a drier air mass with the high pressure system
will enter and clouds will exit south through the afternoon
hours with clear conditions expected tonight. Northerly winds
will be favored through the period around 10 kts. There could be
a brief gust to 20 kt during the late afternoon, if there is
some mixing with the clearing skies.

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Periods of
rain showers will bring likely non-VFR conditions late Friday
night through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly flow will increase behind a cold front this evening,
resulting in winds to 15 to 20 knots and waves of 2 to 5 feet
from The Islands east to Conneaut, OH later this evening into
Wednesday morning. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory one
zone west to the Islands. Waves may very briefly reach or exceed
4 feet from Conneaut, OH to Ripley, NY overnight, but would
like to see how winds/waves trend before extending the advisory
east to the border of the CWA.

North/northeast winds will diminish for a period Wednesday
afternoon before possibly briefly returning to 15 to 20 knots
Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed (or
extended) to account for this period of increased flow. Winds
are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 knots by late Thursday
morning with relatively light southerly flow developing by
Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots
ahead of a cold front Friday night through Saturday with
southwest winds increasing further Saturday night through
Sunday. The strongest winds as high as 20 to 30 knots will
likely occur Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed at some point during the
weekend, best chance on Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...15