036
FXUS61 KCLE 280743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
243 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger over the region through today before high
pressure very briefly builds east over the area late tonight into
early Saturday. The next system will lift northeast across the
region late Saturday through Sunday with high pressure returning
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue through the near term period with
the highest accumulations occurring across the primary and
secondary snowbelt regions of NE OH and NW PA. Multiple bands of
snow are currently present across NE OH/NW PA early this morning
with the heaviest snowfall rates occurring in eastern Cuyahoga
County, Geauga County, northern Portage/Trumbull counties, and
Erie/Crawford counties (PA). Snowfall rates will be up to 1 inch
per hour at times, although there could be isolated higher
snowfall rates early this morning. Lake effect snow should
diminish in intensity and continue to push inland later this
morning as lift decreases in the DGZ and winds become a bit more
northwesterly. Lake effect snow showers should start to diminish
after midnight as high pressure starts to build east into the
region, although lingering light snow showers will remain
possible across the primary snowbelt through late tonight.

Additional snowfall totals of 5 to 7 inches are possible across
the higher terrain of eastern Cuyahoga, Geauga, and
Erie/Crawford counties with locally higher amounts possible
where bands of heavier snow persist. Slightly lower snow amounts
of 3 to 5 inches are likely in the snowbelt region, including
northern Summit/Portage counties and Trumbull County. Snow
amounts will be much lower closer to the lakeshore from Lake
County through Erie County, PA. The majority of the snow
accumulation will occur with the higher snowfall rates this
morning. Wind gusts have diminished considerably, however
west/northwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph will likely produce
blowing/drifting snow through this afternoon. Winter headlines
are unchanged with this update, but will probably be able to
start trimming down warnings/advisories as the morning
progresses.

Light snow showers downwind from Lake Michigan are possible
outside of the snowbelt today, but impactful accumulations are
not anticipated. Today`s highs will be in the lower 30s areawide
with overnight lows willing into the lower 20s and upper teens.
Apparent temps will be in the teens and lower 20s during the day
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect precip should largely diminish by
early Saturday morning and there will be a very brief period of
widespread dry weather Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon
before the next system begins to impact the local area by late
Saturday afternoon. Low pressure will lift northeast from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday night and track across the
central Great Lakes early Sunday. Isentropic ascent ahead of the
low will allow stratiform snow to spread across the local area
late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening with warm air
advection causing snow to mix with and/or transition to rain
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. The highest snowfall
totals will likely occur to the west of the local area, although
the western fringe of the CWA will be on the fringe of the
higher snowfall totals and higher impacts. Most of the area
will see 1 to 3 inches of wet synoptic snow accumulation
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, but locations
northwest of a line from roughly Findlay to Port Clinton may
see snowfall totals as high as 4 to 6 inches, depending on where
the gradient of the heavier snowfall rates sets up. Confidence
in advisory amounts of snow is gradually increasing, although
confidence in warning amounts is still too low to consider the
issuance of a Winter Storm Watch.

The low`s cold front will move east across the area at some
point Sunday afternoon or evening with lake-enhanced snow
showers developing with the return of cold air advection Sunday
night. Lake-enhanced snow accumulations appear to be somewhat
marginal and snow should generally be short-lived as high
pressure builds in behind the low during the day Monday. With
that being said, the approach of the next disturbance will
likely push additional snow changes into the area late Monday
night.

Temperatures will briefly warm into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees Sunday with colder highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s
expected for Monday. Lows will be in the upper teens/lower 20s
Sunday night and the lower 20s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Additional snow chances continue across the area on Tuesday as
an upper trough moves east across the local area. Dry weather is
favored for most of the area on Wednesday as high pressure
builds east over the region, however the next disturbance could
deliver lake-enhanced snow showers to the snowbelt region late
Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance suggests that temperatures
will largely remain below normal through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The areawide snow showers have diminished over the past few
hours as a shortwave trough exits the region. This has led to a
drier and more consistently VFR trend at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD
overnight and through today, although kept some occasional
passing snow showers and MVFR there later this morning. Farther
east, it is a much different story as lake-effect snow squalls
continue. The snow has become more multi-banded compared to
earlier, and this will continue well into the day today. KCLE,
KCAK, KYNG, and KERI will see pretty persistent light to
occasionally moderate snow this morning through at least mid
afternoon, with KCLE and KYNG most frequently getting into
bursts of heavier snow. This will lead to brief IFR/LIFR at
those two terminals. Timing of the heaviest bursts of snow and
lowest flight categories is fairly low confidence, so expect
several amendments. Conditions will gradually improve late this
afternoon and evening as drier air works in and the flow backs
to the SW, shifting the weakening snow bands toward western New
York. Periods of snow will hold on through the end of the TAF
cycle at KERI.

WNW winds will continue to gust to 20-30 knots early this
morning at times, gradually decreasing to 15-25 knots during
the day today. Winds will further decrease to 5-10 knots
tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings will continue across parts of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Saturday
morning. A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with
lake effect snow lingering across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds around 25-35 knots across Lake Erie with gale-force winds
primarily across the eastern half. The Gale Warning was canceled
early west of Vermilion and replaced with a Small Craft Advisory.
Elsewhere, the warnings were unchanged.

Due to the continued strong westerly winds, a Low Water Advisory
remains in effect on the western basin of Lake Erie through 4 AM
Friday. Water levels will oscillate near the critical mark through
at least this evening.

High pressure with good marine conditions will be over Lake Erie on
Saturday for a brief window. Southerly winds ramp up to 30 knots
Saturday night as low pressure tracks from the southern Plain into
the Central Great Lakes. Winds veer to westerly Sunday and
northwesterly Sunday night and additional Small Craft Advisories are
likely Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ010.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ011>014-022-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ021-
     089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ142>146.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ147>149-
     167>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Saunders