596
FXUS62 KCHS 161805
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the rest of
this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or
early Monday, followed by another area of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels will prevail through the
remainder of today and through tonight, with upper air analyses
showing the center of the ridge extending northward through the
Great Lakes. High pressure at 850 hPa and at the surface will be
anchored over the Great Lakes through the remainder of today,
shifting slightly eastward overnight. Quiet conditions will prevail
through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight with clear
skies prevailing. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the
mid to upper 70s, with some spots along the Altamaha River
possibly touching 80. Overnight clear skies and light to calm
winds will yield decent radiational cooling. NBM low
temperatures show upper 40s inland with mid to upper 50s along
the coastline. However, given the radiational cooling actual
temperatures have a high likelihood of being several degrees
below these values, with mid 40s possible inland and low 50s
away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Saturday: The center of a 1020 mb high will build
across the region during the late week. On Friday, a weak H5 ridge
is forecast to ripple across the region. Sky conditions should
remain clear/sunny through Friday. Given a cool start to the day,
40s and 50s, afternoon temperatures are forecast to peak in the
lower 70s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 70s across SE GA.
The H5 ridge will flatten with the weak axis shifting to the east
Friday night into Saturday. HREF indicates that high clouds should
gradually increase from the west as the ridge axis shifts over the
Atlantic. The combination of thin high clouds, light to calm winds,
and dry weather should result lows in the 50s, with pockets of upper
40s across portions of inland SC. High temperatures on Friday are
forecast to range from the mid 70s across the CHS metro to around 80
across SE GA.

On Sunday, near term guidance indicates that a cold front will
approach the forecast area from the west. As the front approaches,
return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen through the
day. High temperatures should favor values between 80 to 85. It is
possible that an isolated shower may arrive over SE GA by sunset on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models time a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday
morning. Guidance as trended drier with recent runs, this trend
continued with the 12Z. Isolated showers are possible with the
passage of the front, providing little to no measurable rainfall.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, remaining until
another weak front approaches late Tuesday. Stronger high pressure
is forecast to build across the region on Wednesday. Temperatures
should begin the day in the 50s and warming into the 70s each day.
Overall, the extended range forecast appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS,
JZI, and SAV terminals through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure centered over the Great
Lakes will yield NNE winds through tonight, generally around 10
to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to increase, with some 6 ft seas
entering the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters this evening. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting tonight for the
6 ft seas.

Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will generally weaken
through Friday into Friday night. As a result, 6 ft seas over the
outer GA waters should generally subside, a Small Craft Advisory
will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer
around to the south-southeast on Saturday as high pressure shifts
offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday,
likely passing across the waters Monday morning. A few gusts around
25 kts may briefly occur across the nearshore Charleston County
waters and outer GA waters Sunday night.  High pressure will return
for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns.

Rip Currents: NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell
around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our
Georgia beaches through Friday. Low risk along the GA and SC
coasts on Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Charleston and
Coastal Colleton Counties for this afternoon`s high tide around
5:15 PM, which is forecast to reach minor flood stage in the
Charleston Harbor.

There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon
/ early evening high tide cycles on Friday along the Charleston and
Colleton county coasts. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the
lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as
we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and
eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less
favorable.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-
     050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED