916
FXUS62 KCHS 060137
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
937 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist tonight into Sunday. A cold front is
expected to push across the forecast area Monday night into
Tuesday. The center of tropical cyclone Milton is forecast to
track east across Florida on Wednesday, tracking over the
western Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure
should build across the region by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Diurnally induced showers have dissipated with nocturnal
influences to prevail. As a result we hold onto isolated to
showers over Long County and the coastal counties of southeast
Georgia. Coastal McIntosh has the best chance of seeing any
scattered showers, where we show 30% PoPs. This is in the
region close to a surface trough or weak cold front, with some
enhancement from low level moisture convergence. The rest of the
area looks to stay rainfree with a larger amount of subsidence
to occur, as high pressure tries to build in from the north, and
PWat is less.

Given upper difluence from a jet streak across the region,
considerable high and mid level clouds will prevail.

Lows will range in the mid-upper 60s inland to lower and middle
70s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: The forecast area is forecast to remain between a cold front
across northern FL and another stronger cold front across the Ohio
River Valley. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic
coast will remain ridged across the forecast area. Gusty NE winds
should keep dry stable air across most of the CWA. However, HREF
keeps the northern edge of deep moisture just over extreme SE GA and
the adjacent waters. The forecast will feature SCHC to CHC PoPs for
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern most counties.
High temperatures are forecast to generally range in the low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday: Tropical cyclone Milton is forecast to develop
into a hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico. The
large circulation around the storm may result in the approaching
cold front to stall over or near the forecast area early next week.
The forecast will generally feature dry weather for Monday and
Tuesday. Low temperatures in the 60s and high temperatures in the
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night, moisture will begin to lift north across portions of
SE GA. SCHC for showers across SE GA, dry to the north.

Wednesday through Thursday, the forecast will be dominated by the
placement, timing, and strength of Hurricane Milton. Per latest NHC
track, the center of Milton is forecast to track across central FL
Wednesday/Wednesday night, pushing across the western Atlantic on
Thursday. During the storm`s closest passage to the CWA, PoPs will
spread from south to north across most of the forecast area for
moderate showers. However, the the storm tracks on the north edge of
the forecast cone, similar to the GFS then PoPs will need to be
significantly increased across the CWA. Conditions appear cloudy
with rounds of showers and gusty NE winds, especially near the
coast. Daytime temperatures should be limited to the mid to upper
70s.

By Friday, conditions should rapidly improve with the arrival of
large high pressure. Conditions will remain dry and sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through early next week. Rainfall
associated with Tropical Cyclone Milton may develop restrictions
Wednesday through Thursday. Periods of gusty NE winds will be
possible during the mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak cold front will shift across local waters,
favoring an enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure
nudging into the area from the north/northwest and coastal
troughing slowly nudging south across Georgia waters and near
the Florida coast. In general, northeast winds will gust up to
15-20 kt across most waters outside the Charleston Harbor.
Seas will range between 3-4 ft across nearshore waters and 4-5
ft across offshore Georgia waters, but will show signs over
building overnight.

Sunday: The marine zones are forecast to remain between a cold front
across northern FL and another stronger cold front across the Ohio
River Valley. Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic
coast will remain ridged across the forecast area. Gusty NE winds
between 15 to 20 kts across the coastal waters. Seas will gradually
increase, ranging from 3 to 5 ft within 20 NM, and 5 to 6 ft across
the outer GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the
outer GA waters.

Monday and Tuesday: Tropical cyclone Milton is forecast to develop
into a hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico. The
large circulation around the storm may result in the approaching
cold front to stall over or near the forecast area early next week.
Winds will strengthen through the period. By Tuesday, all marine
zones should develop at least Small Craft Advisory criteria wind
gusts. Seas will increase to 5 to 7 ft by Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. The
forecast will be dominated by the placement, timing, and strength of
Hurricane Milton. Per latest NHC track, the center of Milton is
forecast to track across central FL Wednesday/Wednesday night,
pushing across the western Atlantic on Thursday. During the storm`s
closest passage to the coast, wind gusts around 50 kts are possible
across the outer GA waters Wednesday night. Seas across the outer GA
water could range between 15 to 20 ft Wed night. Mariner`s should
monitor updated weather forecast closely.

Rip Current: The combination of northeast winds and swells of 2 ft
every 10 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at all beaches through Sunday. An enhanced risk for rip currents
will persist into early next week as long period swell energy
generated from distant Hurricane Kirk impacts the beaches.
Beginning on Wednesday, wave energy associated with Hurricane
Milton will begin to increase and remain into late into the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeast winds could maintain tidal departures around 1 ft
near the timing of high tide late Sunday morning. Given an
astronomical tide near 5.9 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor for
the Sunday morning high tide cycle, water levels along the
Charleston/Colleton coast could reach 7 ft MLLW and lead to minor
coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be
needed.

Coastal flooding is also possible during high tides from Tuesday
through Thursday morning along the entire coast. Coastal
flooding appears most likely as Tropical Cyclone Milton tracks
across FL to the western Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 3 PM EDT Thursday for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...
MARINE...