399
FXUS62 KCHS 151540
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1140 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold
front will drop south through the area tonight. Another cold
front could impact the area late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of troughing off the East Coast and
a strong ridge over the Central U.S. This will yield NNW flow
overhead. At the surface, High pressure will be centered over
the Great Lakes Region, with it`s periphery stretching down into
the Southeast U.S. A dry cold front will approach from the
north tonight, quickly moving southward and through our area
late tonight. Dry conditions are expected today and tonight,
with minimal clouds. Highs will range from the mid 70s across
the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s near the Altamaha
River and across our far inland GA counties. The combination of
clear to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will
lead to plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range
from the mid 50s far inland, to the lower 60s along the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast area will be positioned between a deep mid level
low/trough off the Northeast coast and a ridge extending over
the Mississippi River Valley to start the period. The ridge will
gradually shift eastward and overhead by early in the weekend
in advance of the next weather system. At the surface, high
pressure will extend across the area, with its center eventually
drifting overhead and offshore with time. Dry airmass in place
will preclude any rainfall.

Temperatures will lean on the cooler side of normal, especially
Friday when highs top out in the 70-75 range over most
locations, except upper 70s closer to the Altamaha. Lows will be
chillier with upper 40s possible over many inland spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large mid level trough will swing towards the East Coast on
Sunday, helping to send a cold front through the local area
Sunday night. The front will bring rain chances back in the
forecast, but it doesn`t appear to be a significant rainmaker.
Instability looks meager, so no thunder is advertised at this
point. The front should make a quick exit, allowing high
pressure and quiet weather to return for Monday and beyond. A
brief cool down on Monday following fropa, otherwise
temperatures will be right around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will be centered over the Great
Lakes Region, with it`s periphery stretching down into the
Southeast U.S. A dry cold front will approach from the north
tonight, quickly moving southward and through our waters late
tonight. An elevated surface pressure gradient will bring gusty
NE winds this morning, with gusts approaching the 20-25 kt
range. These winds should ease by this afternoon, while still
prevailing from the NE into the overnight. Winds should start to
increase again behind the front late tonight. We have a Small
Craft Advisory in effect for the GA waters beyond 20 nm, mainly
for 6 ft seas.

Thursday through Monday: Northeast winds will peak in the 15-20
knot range Thursday into Thursday night following fropa earlier
in the morning. Winds/seas are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria, with the exception of the outer Georgia
waters where 5-6 ft seas will persist into Friday. The pressure
gradient will ease Friday into the weekend as high pressure
shifts overhead and eventually offshore. The next cold front
will approach the area Sunday, likely passing across the waters
Sunday night. Southerly winds will increase ahead of it, with
some gusts near 25 knots possible. Winds will turn offshore and
subside on Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Update: Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 6 PM EDT this
afternoon for Coastal Colleton and Charleston Counties. High
tide will occur around 4:17 PM this afternoon and peak ~7.0 ft
MLLW (6.9 to 7.1 ft MLLW). Saltwater inundation will be possible
1 to 2 hours before and after high tide.

There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late
afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston
and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are
expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps
tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The
risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high
pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind
direction becomes less favorable.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-
     050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dennis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...