951
FXUS62 KCHS 061104
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
704 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Chantal will weaken over northeast South
Carolina today as the system moves away from the area. Weak
high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail
through the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie will be allowed to
expire at 8 AM as winds have likely dropped below 20 kt over
the lake. Unfortunately, observations from PNOS1 stopped around
345 AM.

Today: Tropical Storm Chantal continues its inland trek across
the Pee Dee this morning. The cyclone remains asymmetric based
on satellite, radar and earlier reconnaissance aircraft data
given the ongoing shear aloft. This will help keep the bulk of
the tropical cyclone`s impacts displaced along and to the
northeast of where the center tracks. Any significant issues
will therefore remain confined to the upper South Carolina coast
and Pee Dee with little in the way of significant impacts to
the Lowcountry.

As Chantal moves north across the Pee Dee into North Carolina,
several bands of showers and possibly tstms should redevelop
across the area once morning low clouds mix out and instability
begins to build with daytime heating. The best coverage should
occur across mainly the Lowcountry where ripples of low-level
convergence should occur along the south and southwest flanks of
the low-level circulation. This scenario is reflected rather
well in the latest simulated reflectivity progs from the various
CAMS. The forecast will continue to utilize the 06/01z NBM for
hourly pops, but similar to yesterday, its output looks a bit
aggressive with some degree of subsidence likely to linger on
the outer periphery of Chantal`s broad circulation. The 06/00z
HREF and CAMs certainly favor a drier overall solution, but no
local modifications were made given they do meet the new,
national "break the glass" criteria. Pops will range from 60%
across Berkeley and Dorchester Counties with 30-50% across the
remainder of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia.
Extensive cloud cover over the Lowcountry will help limit highs
this afternoon, even as clouds begin to mix out later this
morning. This will have an impact on afternoon highs. Highs look
to range from the mid 80s across the Lowcountry with upper
80s/lower 90s over Southeast Georgia. It will be a bit cooler at
the beaches with high warming into the mid-upper 80s with
offshore flow prevailing for much of the day before low-level
winds begin to back to the southwest.

Tonight: Any lingering isolated shower/tstm activity will
dissipate early in the evening as Chantal weakens and moves
farther away from the area. Some lingering feeder bands could
redevelop over the Atlantic late which could brush the upper
portions of Charleston County; however, most areas should remain
rain-free through the night. Lows will range from the lower 70s
well inland to around 80 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Remnants of Chantal will continue to pull northward away from
the region Monday, with the surface pattern to then feature high
pressure offshore with a trough of low pressure inland. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage will be scant Monday (POPs ~10- 25%),
as the axis of highest moisture shifts northward. Model
soundings also indicate subsidence in the wake of the departing
low Monday, becoming more subtle by Tuesday. Therefore there
could be slightly greater shower/tstm coverage Tuesday
afternoon, increasing for Wednesday afternoon as the area
transitions into a seasonable pattern. High temperatures will
jump back in the mid to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday with mostly
sunny skies forecast. With accompanying dew points nearing the
mid 70s, heat indices in a few spots could make a run for Heat
Advisory criteria (108F degrees), mainly Tuesday. Both nights
will be mild with min overnight temperatures only in the mid to
upper 70s. Wednesday should see highs about 1-2 degrees cooler
with increased convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak flow within subtle ridging aloft will persist along with
no discernible synoptic features. Therefore, the forecast will
be dominated by a typical summertime sea breeze pattern, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day especially
in the afternoon and early evening when instability is
maximized. Highs are forecast to remain in the low/mid 90s
inland of the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI: MVFR cigs will hold through mid-morning before
improving. Bands of rain are expected to develop across the
Lowcountry this afternoon as Chantal continues to move away from
the area. Some of this activity could get close to both airports
by early afternoon as daytime heating and instability build.
Confidence for direct impacts is low with high-res data
supporting a number of possible outcomes of where bands will set
up. VCSH was highlighted for the afternoon hours for now. Any
rain should dissipate by sunset with dry conditions overnight.

KSAV: VFR should prevail for much of the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief ceiling/vsby restrictions
possible due to scattered showers and thunderstorms closer to
mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Conditions will steadily improve across the waters today
as Chantal moves farther inland. Wind gusts have dropped below
34 kt across the South Santee-Edisto Beach leg so the Tropical
Storm Warning has been downgraded to Small Craft Advisory
through 2 PM. All other Small Craft Advisories have been
cancelled.

Tonight: Southwest winds will persist in the wake of Chantal
with speeds averaging 10-15 kt over the Georgia waters and 15-20
kt over the South Carolina waters. Seas will subside 2-4 ft,
except 3-5 ft over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg.

Monday through Friday: Relatively benign conditions will
persist through the period as winds settle into a SW flow with
the Tropical Storm, or the remnants of, Chantal located to the
north and high pressure to the east. No marine
concerns/headlines expected during the period with winds 15 kt
or less and seas 2-4 ft.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk for rip currents exists for all
area beaches due to residual swell. Lingering swell will result
in a Moderate Risk of rip currents for the Charleston/Colleton
County beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ350.

&&

$$