881
FXUS62 KCHS 120129
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
929 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will extend across the area into early next
week. A surface front may sag into the area during the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The entire forecast area was worked over with thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. KCLX detected an area of stratiform rain
with isolated thunderstorms across the CHS Tri-county late this
evening. This activity should dissipate by midnight. Rain-cooled
temperatures should remain steady in the low to mid 70s through
the rest of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper-lvl ridge will slowly build across the Gulf Coast this
weekend into early next week. Simultaneously, a broad ridge will
remain off the East Coast as rich moisture continues to advect into
the region with PWAT values ~2.0 inches through early next week.
This will be more than enough moisture to spark up some showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Expect
temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday, with mid to
upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Heat index values be in the 100 to
the 106 degree range, specifically on Sunday and Monday. As of right
now, these values remain under Heat Advisory Criteria (108F),
however we will continue to be monitor these values over the next
couple days. With these temperatures and dewpoints in the the low to
mid 70s, moderate instability should develop and it`s possible to
see strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon. Overnight lows
will remain mild and only dip into the low to mid 70s (with warmer
temperatures closer to the beaches).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This current pattern will be slow to change as this weak upper-lvl
ridge eventually begins to break down in the middle part of next
week. Recent guidance suggests a weak surface trough, or front,
could settle across the region with storm activity gradually
increasing by the end of the week. Temperatures will remain near
normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAFs: Late this evening, stratiform rain will remain across KCHS
and KJZI through most of the remainder of the evening. Once the
rainfall dissipates, conditions are forecast to remain VFR
through the rest of the night. Winds may remain light and
variable during the rainfall this evening, then should favor a
SW direction late tonight. High resolution guidance indicates
that sea breeze thunderstorms are likely again Saturday
afternoon. Each TAF will feature TEMPOs between 18-22Z for
thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the
period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within
showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: High pressure will dominate across the marine
waters, yielding southerly winds generally 10 to 15 knots. Some
gusts along the direct coastline could approach 20 knots this
afternoon in association with the afternoon sea breeze.
Overnight winds will remain elevated as high pressure builds
into the region, with winds around 15 knots with gusts to around
20 knots. Seas will average 2-4 ft through tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect generally south-southwesterly winds
at 5 to 10 kt to prevail throughout the period. It could become a
bit gusty each afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt as the
seabreeze pushes inland (gusts strongest across the immediate
coastline and the Charleston Harbor). Southeasterly swell will
continue to mix into the local waters over the weekend. Seas will be
2 to 3 ft, then decrease to 1 to 2 ft on Monday. Otherwise, no
marine concerns expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...CPM/Dennis