696
FXUS62 KCHS 011652
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1252 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will shift off the Outer Banks of NC today. A dry
cold front is forecasted to move through our region later
Wednesday, followed by High pressure through the rest of the
week and possibly into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, ridging centered near the Bahamas will give way
as a positively tilted trough across the southeast deamplifies
and shifts eastward across Georgia and the Carolinas. At the
surface, the forecast area will sit in the area between a strong
high across the central CONUS and a weak area of low pressure
emerging off the North Carolina coast. This setup will favor
west to northwest low-level flow and dry conditions. Extensive
mid and high level clouds are expected for much of the day,
with the back edge of the cloud cover beginning to push through
the forecast area into the early evening hours. The increased
cloud cover should keep temperatures down just a bit, but we
still expect above normal values with highs largely in the mid
80s.

Tonight: High pressure will begin to build in which will turn
the low-level flow pattern more northerly with time. Skies will
clear out during the evening and should remain mostly clear
through the rest of the night. The forecast advertises lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be located
off the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It`ll slowly move
further offshore during the day and into the night. As it does
this, weak ridging will gradually build over the Southeast U.S.
A dry cold front will be located to our west and northwest in
the morning, roughly along the spine of the Appalachians. It`ll
quickly move through our area during the late afternoon or
evening, then shift offshore after midnight. Following the
front, High pressure will pass to our distant north overnight.
Despite there being lift associated with the front, the lack of
moisture will keep POPs at no more than 10% during the afternoon
and with the frontal passage. Expect some cumulus in the
afternoon and evening, followed by clearing skies after
midnight. Some compression ahead of the front will yield
temperatures a few degrees above normal. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows behind the front will range from the mid
60s far inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.

Thursday: The mid-levels will consist of weak ridging over the
Southeast U.S., stretching north into the Mid-Atlantic States.
At the surface, a cold front will be located off our coast and
further to the south in the morning. Meanwhile, High pressure
will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. The cold front is
forecasted to move further away from us as time progresses. The
High is forecasted to shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later in
the day, moving over or near New England overnight. Subsidence
associated with the periphery of the High will keep our area
rain-free. However, when the High shifts offshore it`ll cause
moisture and clouds to gradually increase from south to north
during the afternoon, persisting into the night. High
temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, in the low to
mid 80s. Lows will remain in the mid 60s far inland to the lower
70s at the beaches.

Friday: Weak mid-level ridging initially over the Southeast
U.S. should get pushed south by a weak trough that`ll pass well
to our north later in the day. High pressure will continue to
shift off the New England Coast while surface troughing is over
FL. Moisture will gradually be ushered from south to north,
initially causing an increase in clouds. But some of our GA
counties (especially along the coast) could have isolated
showers or maybe even a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon.
We kept POPs mainly slight chance, but this portion of the
forecast may need to be adjusted. High temperatures will remain
a few degrees above normal, in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The forecast for the weekend and early next week continues to
hinge on the potential placement, timing, and strength of a
disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea. NHC has highlighted
this region in the Tropical Weather Outlook, so refer to this
product for the latest information. Likewise, NHC and WPC
collaborated the WPC Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressure maps
during this time period. They have Low pressure tracking
northward across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, then
approaching the western FL coast on Monday. Our forecast has
slight chance to chance POPs, mainly each afternoon, with high
temperatures a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Wednesday. Models continue to hint at the potential
for restrictions in low clouds late tonight towards daybreak,
particularly at KCHS and KJZI. Maintained a scattered IFR layer
for now and will continue to monitor trends. Prevailing VFR
will return by mid morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Winds will mostly be westerly today,
turning northwesterly during the evening, the northerly late.
Wind speeds should mostly max out around 10 knots, but could be
10-15 knots by sunrise Wednesday. Seas should average around 2
feet.

A dry cold front will approach from our west/northwest
Wednesday morning. It`s forecasted to move through our waters
Wednesday evening, then quickly shift further offshore after
midnight. High pressure located to our north/northwest will then
build in Wednesday night, passing to our north on Thursday,
then moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday night into
Friday. An area of Low pressure may be in eastern Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria through the end of the work week. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this
weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH