996
FXUS62 KCHS 102337
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
737 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail inland through early next week.
Meanwhile, a coastal low will linger through Saturday before
lifting north and eastward along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
This evening through tonight: Aloft, a mid-level low will
continue to sink southward across the Southeast. This will place
the forecast area within an area of difluence and within the
entrance region of a developing upper jet. At the surface, an
area of low pressure will develop along the east coast of FL and
begin to slowly lift to the north-northeast. There will be a
decent gradient of moisture across the area from west to east,
with precipitable water values around 1.4 inches across inland
southeast GA and around 1.8 inches along the coast. This
combination of deep layered forcing and plentiful moisture will
produce a wet evening and overnight, especially across the
coastal corridor. Most of the rain will impact areas along and
east of I-95, with lesser amounts and lesser coverage west of
the I- 95 corridor. Locations along the coast will see rainfall
amounts range from 0.5-1.5 inches, with some locally higher
amounts possible along the immediate coast. Further inland,
amounts will be mostly less than half an inch, with the inland-
most counties potentially seeing very little measurable
rainfall. Northeast winds will remain breezy through the period,
with gusts as high as 20-25 mph just about everywhere, and
gusts as high as 25-30 mph along the coast. The combination of
widespread overcast cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and
breezy northeast flow, will produce cool conditions. Lows will
dip into the upper 50s for portions of the area.

Lake Winds: Gusty northeast winds will continue across Lake
Moultrie through tonight. Gusts will mostly be around 25 knots,
but could be up to 30 knots at times. A Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
This weather pattern will be dominated by a deep upper low over
the southeast, along with the associated surface low over the
Atlantic coastal waters. There will be a strong pressure
gradient, especially closer to the coast, between the low
pressure system offshore and a wedge of high pressure well
inland. Gusty north-northeast winds early Saturday, are expected
to back slightly to north-northwest later Saturday and beyond.
As the surface low center slowly tracks northward up the coast,
the pressure gradient and potential for gusty winds will also
gradually decrease.

Rain chances are expected to be highest over the Charleston
Tri-County region through much of Saturday, then begin lowering
Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday, our current forecast has
no mentionable precipitation, with PoPs below 15% all regions.
Rainfall amounts generally 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with isolated
higher amounts possible, with the highest amounts mainly over
the northern 1/3 of the area, including the Charleston Tri-
County region.

Given clouds and northerly winds on the backside of the surface
low over the Atlantic waters, high temperatures are expected to
remain below normal in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Sunday,
coolest over the northern half of the region. By Monday,
temperatures expected to warm back to near normal in the mid 70s
to around 80 by Monday. Lows closer to normal during the
period, in the upper 50s to around 60 inland, and lower 60s near
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A much quieter weather pattern is shown by models to develop
during this period. The low pressure system off the mid Atlantic
coast at the start of the period is expected to continue to
moving northeastward away from the region as a deep layer ridge
builds from the west. This will setup a relatively dry stretch,
with no PoPs in the forecast. In general, with the surface ridge
expected to remain north of the area through the period, we
expect light north to northeast winds, possibly becoming onshore
near the coast each afternoon. High temperatures near to
slightly below normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Low
temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00z TAFs: Expect poor aviation conditions to continue at KCHS,
KJZI, and KSAV with MVFR ceilings in place at all 3 sites, with
KCHS and KJZI experiencing steady light rain. Heading further
into the night, guidance suggests light to occasionally moderate
rain should continue throughout the night and ceilings will
lower to IFR range late tonight (06-09Z). Visbilities within the
rain will likely only get as low as 3-5 miles, with ceilings
controlling the flight category. Once IFR conditions settle in,
they will likely persist into Saturday afternoon. Northeast
winds will remain breezy, with frequent gusts as hgih as 20-25
knots through the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty north to northeast winds are
still expected to impact KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through Saturday. There
could be at least periodic flight restrictions with low CIGS
through the weekend as a low pressure lingers off the Southeast
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
This evening and tonight: Very poor conditions will continue
across the local waters through tonight. Winds will remain
strong out of the northeast, with frequent gusts to gale force
across the waters outside Charleston Harbor. Gale Warnings
remain in effect, and strong Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected in Charleston Harbor with gusts as high as 30 knots.
Seas across the nearshore waters should be in the 5-9 ft range,
with 8-11 ft in the outer waters.

A strong low pressure center over the nearshore Atlantic waters
is expected to slowly move north-northeastward through the
weekend. Expect hazardous marine conditions to continue through
late Saturday night, with low end Gale conditions. Winds and
seas gradually improve by Sunday. However, at least SCA
conditions will persist for seas through Sunday night for all
waters, with offshore GA waters likely persisting through Sunday
night. Monday through Wednesday, high pressure builds from the
northwest, with conditions expected to fall below all highlight
levels. However, still expect north- northeast winds to be 15 to
20 knots with seas 3 to 5 feet.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and building seas will
continue to support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches
through Sunday.

High Surf: Large breaking waves of 5+ feet are expected at all
area beaches today through Saturday as strong high pressure
builds inland and low pressure develops offshore. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect for the entire coastline. This in addition
to very high tide cycles will likely lead to some erosion at
area beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Upcoming evening high tide (11:30 pm): As strong northeast winds
continue across the region, there is potential for minor
coastal flooding at Charleston as the astronomical high tide is
5.61 ft MLLW. High tide could peak in the 7.0-7.2 ft range, but
some uncertainty remains regarding how tide departures trend in
the next few hours. Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for
Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties until 1AM Saturday.
Coastal flooding does not look to be an issue at Fort Pulaski.

Charleston Harbor Tide Gage: The midday Saturday high tide
cycle has the potential to hit major coastal flooding (8 ft
MLLW). Though astronomical tide levels are starting to fall with
each tide cycle, persistent and strong northeast winds will
keep large tidal departures going. The Saturday midday
astronomical high tide is 6.71 ft MLLW, but we could still be
close to the 1.3 ft of tide departure needed. The current tide
forecast is for 7.9 ft MLLW, but could reach the major coastal
flood threshold of 8 ft MLLW.

Fort Pulaski Tide Gage: The midday Saturday high tide cycle has
the potential to hit moderate coastal flooding (10 ft MLLW).
The astronomical tide level will come down to 8.58 ft MLLW, but
persistent and strong northeast winds will maintain large tidal
departures. The current tide forecast is for 9.8 ft MLLW, but
could end up a bit higher and hit the moderate coastal flood
threshold of 10 ft MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for SCZ048>051.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ045.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ049-050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ350-352.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ354.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dennis
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...Dennis/RFM
MARINE...BSH/RFM